Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the Mets’ top target because at age 25, he offers the chance to be really good for a number of years. On the flip side of that, we have Luis Severino, who used to be good back when he was roughly Yamamoto’s age but who hasn’t been both good and healthy in half a decade. While a 10-year contract is a potential outcome – if unlikely – for Yamamoto, Severino comes to town on a one-year deal. There’s a school of thought that there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal. My take is that if Severino delivers what he did last year, that thought will be turned on its head.
Regardless, we have the Mets with a one-year deal for a SP and they are chasing a guy who figures to get five or more years. And we just saw a SP go in the middle, as Seth Lugo inked a 3/$45 deal with the Royals. Lugo wanted to be a SP with the Mets but the club didn’t give him many opportunities and when he did get them, he didn’t exactly flourish. In the Covid year of 2020, Lugo had seven starts and put up a 6.15 ERA. In the following offseason, there was an article here talking about how Lugo’s issues as a SP were all due to trouble in the first two innings – no different than when he was a reliever. In innings 3-7, he had a better ERA that year than Jacob deGrom. My opinion then was that despite the rotten results as a starter in those seven games, they gave no justification that he couldn’t be a starter in the future and my preference was that the Mets give him that chance. Here’s the link:
Lugo never made another start for the Mets before leaving in free agency following the 2022 season. He signed with the Padres, appeared in 26 games, with all of them being starts. He put up a 3.57 ERA in 146.1 IP, good for a 2.8 fWAR. Lugo proved that given an entire year as a SP, he could perform well in the role.
Now the question that leaps to mind is: Would the Mets have been better off signing Lugo instead of Severino? It’s not a slam dunk to me and that’s being said as a guy who wanted Lugo to get a shot as a starter with the Mets, as well as one who’s not overjoyed about the Severino signing. There is something to be said about the one-year deal. And there is the chance, however remote, that Severino could return to what he was in 2017. His ceiling – even if there’s a 0.05% chance of reaching it – is simply higher than Lugo’s.
But Lugo seems a better bet to put up a good year in 2024. And which is better – having Lugo on a reasonable contract for two additional years or having no control if Severino successfully turns back the clock? My opinion is that the Mets should have gotten a team option with Severino. But even if they did, my take is that Lugo’s deal is better than Severino’s, due to the greater chance of Lugo being worthwhile.
David Stearns certainly had a short honeymoon with the fans! And look out if/when he whiffs on Yamamoto.
It is early. My feeling is that the Mets will outbid any team for Yamamoto by a healthy margin. I assume that Senga, Hefner, Mendoza, et al. have or will meet with him. If our Mets miss out on him, it will be because he wants Yankee pinstripes or Dodger blue. If so, we will then sign a top pitcher or two (Montgomery or Snell, plus another decent starter).
I have a concern. We really want Yamamoto. Maybe he doesn’t take the top money offer. He can look at the Yankees and Dodgers and say they have better teams and are in it to win it and both have new shiny objects on Soto and Ohtani. We don’t know how much allure that Ohtani could have on him. I hope that he would want to be a teammate with Senga.
The Mets talk a big game, but yes the Stearns honeymoon is over. I don’t want him remaking the Brewers. Yes. They won, but they really won nothing. He needs a new approach. I worry that Yamamoto looks at the Mets moves and sees a junk pile of broken down bullpen arms and decides to go to the Dodgers or Yankees.
I am hoping for the best.
A contract is a transaction between two parties. Money is not the only thing on the table. There are going to be a number of disappointed suitors in the YY sweepstakes. Obviously the Dodgers are a threat to the entire universe, with him signing there as gotta be in the lead. Who wouldn’t want to play with Ohtani? Betts? Freeman? Etc etc. Even with the hard press going to Japan, I think the Mets chance to land YY are small without a terrific overpay, the kind that hurts because it wont be nearly entirely deferred.
I think the wildly out of bounds contract for Ohtani makes clear they will stop at nothing. I hope the next CBA puts an end to these wildly deferred contracts as a way to defeat the luxury tax. It’s a total disingenuous scam.
I think we should all at least let the roster get picked, perhaps even play an actual game on the field, before we slam Stearns to the ground.
It’s a common practice in the NFL to announce a signing for a big number, only to find out that a fraction of that money is guaranteed and that the contract is written in such a way that it’s likely the two teams move on before the end of the deal. And everyone just kind of accepts it.
The Dodgers’ deal with Ohtani is sort of in the same boat. They get to announce $700 million but with so much deferred money it’s not really that big of a deal. The deferral makes it in the neighborhood of a $460 million deal, which is right about what most people expected. Certainly, we heard plenty about an AAV of $50 million.
I have no problem if they re-visit deferred contracts in the next CBA. I just don’t view it as anything close to a necessity. How many players sign 10-year deals? How many players are willing to defer 97% of the money they’re owed?
Finally, the Dodgers still carry a $46 million luxury tax salary for Ohtani the next 10 years. That’s not chump change. And speaking of chump change – how about the $680 million Ohtani gets from the Dodgers in 2034? That’ll be a day worth getting out of bed!
I hear ya, but the premise here is really aggravating to me. I would say it would be ok to say defer no more than 30% of the total contract in order to make the CBT have real teeth and to keep all teams in baseball. It may be Ohtani is unique, with his own gross domestic product without needing an actual baseball salary, and not many will do that, but this offends me.
His payday in 2034 goes until 2043. Nevertheless, thats some salary. I could stand for his pay just for 2 AB!
I’m not sure what the big deal is with regards to the Ohtani contract, and/or that it is out of bounds. Yeah, the PR department said it is for $700 million, just like the lotteries say they are for $1 billion…or $480 lump sum now. My understanding is that the CBT AAV calculation determines that the deal is worth $460 million based on today and the 10 year span, and that the AAV is based on that calculation. Does it matter to anyone besides the player and the employer? This has become a Bobby Bonilla-like issue, the uproar over a deferral of a $5.9 million buy out into future years at an agreed-up interest rate. Based on the time value of money, Ohtani has agreed upon a deal worth $46 million/year over the term. I believe that is still a record contract and by quite a bit.
Regarding YY, I get the feeling that money won’t be the deciding factor…and that the Mets would be better served spending it elsewhere.
So I’ll be switching gears now…..it is open thread, right? So let’s talk about Mauricio’s injury and how it changes the dynamics of this off season. First of all, does it? Will Stearns change his mind about importing a 3B free agent? Will this help Baty earn a job in SP? Will the Mets be more careful regarding allowing off season league play for there players?
Also, why the hate for the Dodgers deferring the money on their contracts? Sounds smart to me…if you know what your doing. Why wouldn’t you want to avoid the penalty or “Cohen” tax?
Good luck to the Dodgers when their credit card bill comes due with Bonilla to the 8th power. Especially the last five years of his contract after his arm falls off.
I do not believe we even know what the dynamics really are, regardless of what Stearns has said or how the fans/media may be [mis]interpreting it.
It clears the path for more opportunity for Baty. But he still has to show a lot more than last year to earn the job outright. Which is also the case for Vientos and Mauricio. This just means there are two candidates instead of one. Stearns had said that one of the three could open the year in the minors, and I thought that Baty was probably most likely to be that one. The injury probably voids that possibility.
I like that Vientos went down to Florida to work with Lindor! Don’t know what Baty is doing.
Lugo vs Severino, neither because they aren’t better than Quintana. If they want a SP#5 then I would take Lugo. If the Mets are going to be competitive than they really have to upgrade their SP#2 and SP#3. Stearns hasn’t done this yet.
Mauricio’s injury complicates matters . The switch hitting Mauricio could have been a sometimes DH with Baty, Vientos and Stewart. Now they only Baty and Vientos at 3B. Based on 2023 resuts, that would be a risky plan.. One year of Justin Turner with his 114 OPS+ as an insurance policy at 3B and DH would be prudent.
For context, Lugo’s 2.8 fWAR last year tied for the 34th-best mark in the majors, making him a high-end SP2. Are we sure that Quintana is better than that? Regardless, should “better than Quintana” be the standard for signing a SP?
fWAR is counting statistic. Quintana had 13 GS at 1.5 fWAR with half starting than Lugo. I’m not arguing who is really better. If they had Lugo instead of Quintana then I would’ve wrote that the Mets need two SP better Lugo. If the Mets want to compete they have to upgrade the pitching and Lugo and Quintana are good pitchers but the Mets need better pitchers in the SP2 and SP3 spot like Yamamoto, Montgomery, Corbin or Bieber.
I would doubt that Lugo would sign the Mets after all the time he pleaded to be a starter, but mostly spent time in the pen able to give multiple innings when asked. I’m sick about Mauricio being done for the season. Shades of Diaz. Hoped Mauricio would be an average fielder at third, but more importantly provide some thump and speed. Now we are back to Baty. Switching gears one more time on this open thread, what about Alvarez wanting an extension? Could be a team friendly deals. The Braves would give him 8 years at $160 million and lock him up. He then becomes a free agent at 31 or so and signs another deal. Just a thought.
Football head is right, we should be talking about Mauricio’s injury – it’s huge! But, that’s done and Yamamoto is an unknown right now. As for Mauricio, a major loss for him and the team. Stuff happens and Baty is now under the microscope.
As for Yamamoto, today he met with the Dodgers. Per The Athletic, present was Betts (who is an idol of Yamamoto’s), Freeman, Ohtani and Will Smith (his catcher). Too, Ohtani deferred all that money so they can sign Yamamoto. And, they were teammates last year in the WBC…. It’s a fait accompli. We need to accept it and move on. To not respect such a huge sign of respect by Ohtani would be offensive in Japan, and the Japanese are very, very respectful. What’s Plan B David?
Stearns is painting himself in a corner. Yamamoto, for obvious reasons is the prize. I’m not sure that it was wise to put all the eggs in one basket. He has the money to sign Montgomery and Rodriguez ( now signed) and that would have strengthened the pitching staff for 4 years.
Egotistical owners give marching orders on high priced acquisitions. High priced executives with high priced educations carry out those orders, primarily to preserve employment. The high priced executives with expensive educations show their talents for better or worse on the mid to lower level acquisitions.
Plan B according to Stearns is to sign Bartolo Colon, Kenny Rogers and Calvin Schiraldi.
I do hope to see some real movement in signings or trades in the next few weeks. We still have all of the same holes we had in October, except for filling up the AAA roster.
While I am really happy with Stearns building the Mets depth, I am getting really antsy that they start making their bigger moves. I always believe in striking first in free agency to get the players you may want. Lee, Lugo and Flaherty off the board. Once Yamamoto makes his decision I think the other dominoes quickly fall. And after signing Ohtani, the Dodgers jumped on Glasnow and Margot. Tampa Bay is always smart. They recoup value on players they are not going to sign who will leave. Pepiot looks like a good pickup. Glasgow is a bit fragile.
Let’s go Mets, time to start the Mets job fair and sign some important players.
From John Dewan’s Stat of the Week column. This week he handed out awards.
The Hall of Framer
The Hall of Framer award goes to the catcher who had the best pitch-framing numbers in 2023. In our world, that means the catcher who had the most called strikes above expectations (Strike Zone Plus-Minus).
We split this award between 2 catchers. Francisco Álvarez of the Mets had an MLB-leading 92 more called strikes than expected. So did Pirates and Rangers catcher Austin Hedges, who had the most on a per-pitch basis (1.82 per 100 pitches).
Scherzer now out until summer with back surgery; deGrom out part of next year, as well.
Mets dodged two bullets.