At one point this offseason, there were some who didn’t think Yoshinobu Yamamoto would crack $200 million. Now word is out that both the Giants and Red Sox have $300 million deals on the table for the Japanese ace. Are the Mets willing to top that offer? Should they be? How much money should a billionaire spend on a season where they aren’t “all in” on the playoffs?
Most fans are very cavalier with Steve Cohen’s money. “He can afford it,” is the phrase that you hear over and over and over again. But, like my kids will tell you that they heard many times while growing up – just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should do something. Forbes estimates the Mets lost around $140 million in 2022. My guess is they lost even more than that in 2023. How long is a billionaire willing to lose roughly $300 million every other year?
We saw the Padres spend a whole lot more than they ever did before. And then we found out part of the reason why – their owner was dying and he wanted one last chance to win it all. Now that he’s gone, they’ve let a bunch of pitchers walk in free agency and traded Juan Soto to get out from under his contract.
This shouldn’t be the expectation with the Mets. But neither should it be the expectation that losing a billion dollars in seven years is just the cost of doing business on this vanity project. Without a doubt, money needed to be spent and from a pure cash-flow look at things, Cohen knew he was going to lose a lot of money in the short term.
But when is it no longer short term?
None of us know the answer to that question. And different people can interpret things different ways and offer up proof of things that Cohen has said or done to back their opinion. If he was really worried about short-term losses, why was he annoyed that the agents for Shohei Ohtani never reached out to him? Why did he make a visit to Japan to woo Yamamoto when he knew the bidding was going to result in another nine-figure contact?
On the flip side, if money is no object, why are there reports that it’s Yamamoto or bust? Why have they not signed any free agent who was actually good last year? Why didn’t the team look to work out an extension with Adam Ottavino, who has been very strong for the club the past two seasons? Why haven’t they already extended Pete Alonso?
At the end of the day, things that are said and rumors about what might happen just don’t matter. We just have to see what gets done. My hope remains that Yamamoto ends up in Queens, giving the Mets a terrific one-two combo with Kodai Senga. And as long as we’re dreaming, my hope is they can work out a five-years-or-fewer contract with Alonso. He’s a fun guy to watch play here in his prime.
But what if Yamamoto goes elsewhere and Alonso demands a seven-year deal?
Neither of those are fun things to contemplate. Yet contemplate them we must. Or at least Cohen and David Stearns need to contemplate them. One thing that’s rarely been said out loud and certainly not examined with very much depth is this: Why did Cohen desire Stearns so much? The surface-level answer is because he was so successful in Milwaukee. But if success was the only factor, why wasn’t Theo Epstein – the guy who won it all in Boston and Chicago, while Stearns’ biggest achievement was one trip to the NLCS – the white whale, instead?
Back when Sandy Alderson joined the Mets, the surface-level comments were about how it was going to be Moneyball with money. But it never really reached those heights. His tenure started out with extreme belt-tightening in regards to payroll. And while that situation improved, it was never to the satisfaction of the fanbase. Additionally, while the payroll might have reached the lowest levels of satisfactory, the infrastructure was for the most part ignored, leaving Cohen in the hole he’s trying to dig out from with all of his hires and investments.
There’s no catchy phrase like “Moneyball with money” to describe Stearns’ hire. But ultimately, Alderson’s job was to bring order to the chaos that was the Wilpons in a post-Madoff world. What’s ultimately Stearns’ job?
Every move to date has been to address the long-term heath of the organization or the short-term depth needs of the 40-man roster. We can say that everything is in a holding pattern with bigger moves until the Yamamoto question is answered one way or another. Or we can say that Stearns is doing exactly what he was brought on to do – survive in the margins. That’s something that Epstein had little experience with in his previous high-profile gigs.
If the perfect world is signing Yamamoto and extending Alonso, what’s the next-best thing? Fans might view it as signing Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell. But my guess is that Plan B is something else entirely. While not doing cartwheels about the moves, my opinion is that Stearns’ depth signings have been markedly better than Billy Eppler’s were, at least with the bullpen additions.
And the rest of the offseason may amount to seeing if Stearns’ short-term veteran deals can work out better than the Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar deals of Eppler. Perhaps down the road we’ll see what Stearns can do with an open checkbook. But for now the Mets seem much less like Dodgers East and more like East Milwaukee.
No end to the hate for Cohen. Seems like one disappointed story after the next. Time to wheel back the hands of time to the Wilpon’s and Alderson, better known as the Oakland, strike that, Las Vegas, Mets.
I presume there is a method to whatever Stearns/Cohen are doing. And thank Mr & Mrs Met they unloaded Scherzer who will be out most of next season, and perhaps forever with herniated disc surgery. At least we got something for the salary.
It’s not even Christmas yet. Every article we read is that the main goal is YY. They do not appear to be in on Montgomery or Snell, as per Will Sammon at the Athletic. They made the mistake with Scherzer and Verlander and are not gonna get stuck with the huge $ and the decline years the geezer set encounters. Good for them.
New out that YY had dinner at he Cohen residence. I sure would have loved to be a fly on the wall for that dinner, or even part of the wait staff! How do you convince a guy that we want you best years even f next year isnt the hallmark year. Are the Mets at a crossroad? If they get YY do they go all in elsewhere, as if YY is the gatekeeper? Or, if they dont get him, then is next year really the youth experiment?
It’s gonna be interesting what we see 1 month from now. In the mean time, Im prepared to let the process pay out.
You are very confused.
Somehow you equate your feelings for previous figures in team history with my feelings for Cohen. There is nothing, and I mean nothing, written in this article that has anything to do with hate.
It seems you view things in a very authoritarian way. You either worship Cohen or you hate him. I don’t do either of those things. I’m pulling for him to be successful. I agree with his full-on pursuit of YY. I commend him for the improvements he’s made in non-uniformed personnel.
And yet somehow you think that an article that mentions his continued tolerance for nine-digit financial losses is about … hate?
Here’s a proposal for you. The next time you read an article of mine on Cohen, approach it without any preconceived biases on your part. You don’t have to agree with a single word I write or thought expressed.
Just don’t think that hate has anything to do with it.
What I hope that Cohen and Co. are thinking is that Yammamoto is a key piece of the future for them, even if 2024 is not an all in year. If he doesn’t sign there’s no reason to sign someone like Snell just to do something. I am perfectly fine with 2024 being a transition year. Give the young Mets more time to develop, both the ones that have seen big league action as well as the ones who haven’t yet. If we keep signing high priced, older free agents, we will never get out of this continuous cycle. Hoping that Cohen will just keep spending and hoping to hit the jackpot one year is not a good strategy. There’s a time to add high priced talent to a team and that’s to add the final piece or two. We are more than a piece or two away.
What you write here is the conventional wisdom and I don’t disagree with any of it. However, I do have a follow-up question. When does the club expect to be good?
If signing YY makes sense because he’ll still be elite when the rest of the Mets are ready to compete, when will that be? Clearly, it’s not 2024. Is it 2025? Is it 2026? I’m not a huge fan of either Snell or Montgomery. But it seems to me that they’re likely to be good pitchers in 2025. Is Cohen cutting off his nose to spite his face by refusing to engage with any free agent besides YY?
Or is it that Cohen recognizes off-the-field advantages with YY that simply don’t exist with U.S.-born pitchers?
I don’t pretend to know what the answer is. So, I ask questions to help establish what the team is thinking. Cohen is already on record as saying that fielding a team with a NY-level of payroll has been more expensive than he anticipated. And it’s not like we should expect the price of good SP to fall in future years.
Based on most of the reports out there, YY is an elite talent at a young age. He could be expected to be very good for 5 or more years. Snell is an excellent pitcher with a shaky track record of injuries and inconsistency. Montgomery is a solid pitcher who is probably not as good as perceived. Those two may be good in 2025 and 2026, but I think that there will be better options in next year’s free agent crop. Like you said we don’t know what the thinking is about the timeframe but YY appears to be a pretty good bet to be solid for a long time, while I would expect the shelf life of the others to be a lot shorter. I’d like to see a sustained competitor, if not starting next year then in 2025. I think YY helps that while the others are less likely to. They may be good for the next couple years but I think they’d be better as last pieces of the puzzle.
Theo Epstein has claimed that he wants a piece of the next team he runs. Very astute of him, but no owner is interested in cutting from their pie. Hence Stearns, being a sharp guy that has experienced success, is the next best. Too, Stearns is from NYC and quite possibly may have “mentioned” to someone that he may be interested in leaving Milwaukee someday when his deal is up. As for the “YY or bust” approach, Cohen has been very patient, and that only means that he has a specific plan. As for Alonso, there is no way he’s looking at five years, he didn’t hire Boras for no reason.
I remember that Epstein wanted a piece of ownership and it’s not like we never saw a deal like that in MLB previously, as Billy Beane had a percentage with the A’s. But from what I remember, there was a brief meeting between Epstein and Cohen and no follow-up.
If, for the sake of argument, Epstein was the clear top choice – was eliminating him from consideration because he wanted an ownership stake the right thing to do? I dunno, maybe?
If the goal is to win the World Series, is it better to hire Epstein and give up a very small ownership stake, or hire Stearns and retain your full stake? We know Epstein can end a championship drought. How much, if anything, is that worth?
It was a smart business move not to give away an ownership stake. But was it a smart baseball move? We can’t know that answer in late 2023. Was there a middle ground to be found, again assuming that Epstein was the top choice? Would either side have been comfortable with Epstein receiving an ownership stake if and only if they won the World Series?
More questions than answers, unfortunately.
I think Cohen is going to be the top dollar bidder for Yamamoto, but I’m not sure if he will land him. Maybe Yamamoto thinks that he would make a difference for the Met’s playoff hopes in 2024 or 2025 and beyond. I think Stearns made a mistake by not signing another good free agent that would make the Mets more appealing.
Cohen has a net worth of $19.3 billion. As a fan, I think that he should be “all in” to make the playoffs. Cohen brought the Mets for $2.4B. Forbes estimates they a worth $2.9B. He is not losing money on his investment. The franchise is appreciating. Even so, if he lost 3 million last year that would be .02% of his total net worth. Every time the Mets are successful and make the playoffs the team
Increase their net worth.
That’s exactly right Metsense. He’s gonna make a fortune owning the Mets, no matter what the early financial losses are – in the big scheme they are meaningless; he’s printing money owning the Mets. Even as much as the new regime has faced the crises of buying a completely broken team, the Mets are still 20 games over .500 under his stewardship. He now has the officer in place he wants to run the show, for whatever the reasons he wanted Stearns. As a side note, after the McCourt sale, the Dodgers picked up 6, 2, -1, and -1 wins in their 4 years, while investing a fortune. Who knows if Cohen/Stearns Mets will ever win a WS. It took the Dodgers 7 years and they only won in the pandemic season. I believe Cohen is not on some sort of vanity project owning the team in any way. At its core is a desire to bring a WS to Queens following the course of his choosing.
Well, there’s what you’re worth on paper and what you have as available cash. And there’s a world of difference between those two things.
Look, this isn’t about if Cohen can make payroll. No one is suggesting that the Mets will have to take out a loan to make payroll. But just because you’re worth XX billion dollars doesn’t mean you have that same amount of money available to spend or lose.
Cohen has made it abundantly clear that he was willing to suffer short-term losses. And while we shouldn’t treat Forbes’ numbers as gospel, they’re the best ones we have available and they showed a nine-digit loss in a year where the team won 101 games. Sure, he’s worth exponentially more than that on paper. But just like you could probably afford to lose five grand in a year, you wouldn’t want to make a hobby out of that and do it year after year after year. None of us know Cohen’s tolerance for consecutive nine-digit loss seasons. Odds are he’s done that in back-to-back years and it wouldn’t be a huge shock if he’s done it all three years he’s owned the Mets.
And here’s what Cohen himself said about the money:
“I don’t think it’s sustainable for the long term to be losing the type of money I’m losing,” he said. “It’s a lot to ask.”
https://www.sportico.com/leagues/baseball/2023/mets-cohen-airs-frustrations-1234727739/
Some people want to crucify me for asking how long Cohen will be up for this. Others are more polite but still dismiss my concerns based on his paper worth. Regardless of whether one likes this question I’m asking, it’s more than reasonable to ask how long he’s willing to lose this type of money and by what means he plans to turn it around.
What is the plan? Stearns whiffed on Eduardo Rodriguez (31) who is a good starting pitcher. In this market, 4/$80m is reasonable and the short term was fair. Lourdes Gurriel Jr (30) just signed for 3/$45 , another reasonable contract and he is an established player ( just like Canha was). Stearns has focus on low end depth but what about mid level depth? Is the plan to sign Yamamoto as the savior of the team? That would be foolish . Yamamoto is a good investment but the team needs more. “More” will cost money. Is the plan to have Nimmo, Williams and Gilbert the starting outfield in 2025 ? I don’t think it is, at least I hope it isn’t. I don’t want Cohen to lose money. I just want to spend money wisely so that the team can make the playoffs in 2024. So far, I don’t see a plan like that.
My guess is that there are two plans, one if they get YY and one if they don’t. Where my opinion differs from most is that Yamamoto aside, there isn’t a ton of differences between the two plans. The Mets are going to look to fill in with veterans on short deals. Maybe they spend more money on these veterans if YY signs elsewhere. But I don’t anticipate four-year deals. I expect more deals like Severino, hopefully with team options.
Instead of Bellinger or Snell – my expectation is for the club to pursue players like Mitch Garver, Joc Pederson and Alex Wood.
Am I the only one that is starting to wonder if landing YY as the high bidder is a win? Based on industry consensus, the dude is talented for sure. But, he hasn’t thrown a pitch in the bigs. None. The media hysteria is a bit over the top.
When Cohen’s plan to go for it with the high priced elders failed, which it did, it certainly made sense to cut losses, eat money, and bolster the system. While this winter has been boring and disappointing, I am growing leery of another risky overpay, as opposed to more commitment to youth combined with some competent veteran pitching at more manageable financial commitment.
Every season is unpredictable and a team can contend based on the misfortunes of the favorites. But, the gap between the Braves and Dodgers and the Mets is gigantic. What happens if the land YY at $325 million and he isn’t great?
I think that’s a fair question because if you’re committing $300+ million – you better be right.
It’s early but the nine-digit deals Cohen signed off on with Lindor and Nimmo look like they were right. The injury and lost season for Diaz makes him unlikely to be worth his deal. But insurance will factor in there.
My opinion is that YY will be worth the investment. But taking the other side of things is very defensible.
Brian, for what it is worth, I don’t think you hate Cohen. I think you are just stating facts in a rational way that you always do.
It has been 37 long years since our last championship. That’s a long time. We swung for the fences with two future hall of farmers at the end of their careers and it didn’t work. With herniated disc’s in his back, I would be surprised to see Scherzer pitch again.
I think Stearns sold Cohen a plan which can create a sustainable winner. Tom Seaver had one of his best seasons at age 24 when they won the world series. Look at his career stats. Great until 30, and then very good. Look at Pujols. Great until 30 and then good. Andrew Jones, great until 30 and then disappeared.
I think it is rare to get top players as free agents in their mid 20’s. Yamamoto is one. On paper he looks like he could be a top pitcher. But Look at Dice K. He was supposed to be that too.
Stearns is building depth, something that has really hurt us in the past. That’s step one. Swing for the fences with Yamamoto step two. If we don’t get him, maybe we go after Imanaga who will be more in Sengas price range.
And next year, we go after Soto. Again, mid 20’s.
I am not sure they are sold on Alonso. It will be interesting to see step three. Maybe there are some surprising trades.
I think they also want to see what we really have with Baty and Vientos as well as see what we have with Jett Williams and even Christian Scott, Acuna and Clifford.
I just think they are being more judicious with Cohens investments.
I don’t we should overpay for Snell or Montgomery. I’d rather have Montgomery than Snell.
I am also glad we didn’t sign Ohtani to a $ 700 million contract. That could really come back to bite them.
As a fan after a bad season, I want to see changes, but not bad ones.
Thanks Mike.
I agree with a lot of what you say. I do think we need to look at Dice-K more carefully. He was a tick above average in his first year in this country and great in his second one with the Red Sox, with a 160 ERA+. But then he pitched in the WBC prior to his third year in the majors and was injured while training for the exhibition. He pitched hurt in the WBC and was never the same after that.
It is disappointing to already be thinking that we likely won’t snag a playoff spot in 2024. It would at least to be tolerable if we make strong progress towards fielding/securing a stronger team. We’d all like to see the wonder boy improve our team aside from a semi talented new cast of players who will battle for bull pen roles and bench play. But I can be patient. After all losing is a way of life for a Met fans. What scares me is thinking players might not want to be here. And as far as YY, if you got courted by a group of LA Dodger players that come along with being in the playoffs year in and year out, why would you sign anywhere else. That is the bigger issue we have in NY. A free agent is going to make similar dollars wherever they sign, so the issue is then how quickly can they win a ring. Not so quickly in NY. Trying my best to be patient waiting for Stearns to do his job.
There is always a chance for the World Series, buy we have to make the playoffs first. The Dodgers and Braves were paper tigers the last two seasons. Yet, they both choked in the playoffs. And, Arizona got to the World Series and then the Rangers win with no deGrom. Go figure. So, yes if we make a couple key editions even if they are not top free agents, we have a shot.