After three years of Steve Cohen owning the Mets and splashing money around once free agency opened up, the Mets so far this offseason did not make the headlines for free agent signings they had in the previous years.
In the offseason following the 2021 campaign, the Mets made big moves, signing Max Scherzer, to join Jacob deGrom in anchoring a monster pitching staff. Or so it was planned. The Mets also added Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, Starling Marte and Mark Canha. Just a plethora of team improvements. And it paid off in spades. The Mets won 101 games and tied for first place in the National League East.
The lesson to be learned, of course, is spend the money and the wins will come.
Enter the 2022 offseason, and Cohen, unhappy with the early exit from the playoffs, was intent on strengthening the areas the Mets faltered. Cohen signed Justin Verlander. Even losing an injured Jacob deGrom to free agency, the Mets added another Cy Young Award winner, and did not stop there. Cohen committed nearly $500 million to free agents in the 2022 offseason. This included Verlander, but the club also re-signed Brandon Nimmo (8 years) and Edwin Diaz (5 years), both vital cogs in the Mets 2022 success. The Mets also let Bassitt go, and then signed Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana.
Then the 2023 season crashed and burned. It was a harsh lesson for Cohen. Buying a division was tougher than it seemed, and the team was dismantled at the trade deadline, dumping Scherzer and Verlander.
Last week the tax man came, and the Mets were hit with $100 million payroll tax for their two years of spending.
So here we are at Christmas, and it seems the Mets and Mets fans were on the Naughty List this season, and there is nothing under the tree but lumps of coal. The Mets were unsuccessful in landing the free agent of a generation, when Shohei Ohtani was available. Was it practical Ohtani would leave greater Los Angeles? Not really. If the Dodgers made a competitive offer, that would be a much easier situation for Ohtani.
The Japanese league triple crown winning pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto came for a visit and dinner, and the Mets made a very competitive offer, but the offer could not overcome the opportunity of playing with Ohtani in LA, so like the Mets in 2021-22 offseason, the Dodgers have added significant talent.
The biggest splash the Mets have made this off-season is adding David Stearns as president of baseball operations. He is supposed to be a key addition, but those effects can take some time. The Mets also dumped Buck Showalter (whew) and hired Carlos Mendoza as manager. The manager shouldn’t have much of an effect, excepting bullpen management, so Mendoza is a blank slate at this point. Having Diaz back could make Mendoza look like a genius.
There have been negligible signings. Joey Wendle, who is an actual good defensive player, albeit as a backup. He cannot hit anymore, but as a defensive replacement, he is valuable at all the infield positions. The Mets traded – unsurprisingly with the Brewers – for Adrian Houser.
What does that leave for the free agent pool? The Mets are still weak in the rotation, with Ronny Mauricio’s ACL injury, second base, third base, and both corner outfield positions. That may read like a weak team, but it really is not.
It mostly is gambling on youth – which can work out. The Mets really do not have questions at most of these positions. If Mauricio had not gotten injured, the Mets would have the usual suspects at every slot:
Francisco Alvarez, Pete Alonso, Mauricio, Francisco Lindor, Brett Baty, Jeff McNeil, Nimmo and Marte. It is a solid lineup, if players perform at 75% forecast level.
The rotation is even passable: Senga, Quintana, Luis Severino, Tylor Megill, Adrian Houser and with David Peterson expected back the end of June or early July. Plenty of arms.
But is there still an opportunity to improve the team in a significant way? Yes, Cody Bellinger in the outfield. He seems to have been around a while, but he is 28! Kevin Kiermaier is 34, but a Gold Glove fielder, which means a great deal in center. Matt Chapman is a Gold Glove third baseman, and only 31. Joey Gallo is a decent outfielder, and a monster DH, and just 30.
There is plenty of talent on the market to put McNeil at second base and give the rookies a year to develop.
Starting pitching is also available, including future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. Lucas Giolito. Blake Snell. Zach Greinke. And many moooooorrrrre.
While Christmas is upon us, and the stockings are empty, perhaps Stearns is just waiting for 2024.
Merry Christmas to All
I have pit a lot if thought into it, and I can see what Stearns is doing. At first my emotions got to me because if my impatience with not signing any big names.
Being objective, Yamamoto may be great, but maybe he won’t. Gerrit Cole got his $ 325 million with a track record.
Stearns is building depth in restocking the farm with underperformed players. He also picked up a potential starter in Houser and a depth outfielder in Tyrone Taylor.
He is playing the long game. We will probably pick up some short term pieces and maybe we are good enough for a wild card slot. But we do have some really exciting prospects in Jett Williams, Gilbert, Acuna and Christian Scott. If one or two of our prospects including Vientos and Baty pan out, then that changes who we go after in free agency.
Yes, we lost out on Yamamoto, but unless he signs an extension with the Yankees, Soto is next year’s prize. There are also good free agent pitchers after next season in Burnes, Fried and Buehler.
So for once in my life I am going to try to be patient. I think 2024 can be a fun year, but if the chips fall right, 2025 could be really exciting.
With Cohen’s money, the Mets should be more competitive. It isn’t like the NBA or NFL where the draft can salvage your team.
I always believe, and right now just crossing my fingers something happens.
It’s not the money we need to be mindful of. It’s the penalties MLB put into place that will handicap the team going forward and make having a continuously producing farm difficult. Not just losing ten spots on the draft, but not being able to sign a QO free agent without losing international signing dollars in addition to their draft picks.
Really disappointed losing out to Dodgers on Yamamoto. This free agent class really doesn’t wow anyone, except for Ohtani. Maybe Stearns can pull off a trade, but at this juncture, it looks like we are playing for 2025. I’m getting too old for this.