There are still other solid pitching options for the Mets to sign. Biggest names remaining, are Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.
Based on what was heard however, it seems like the Mets are going more with Plan B with the starting pitching and shifting towards cheaper short terms options after Snell and Montgomery.
One of the names is Lucas Giolito and here’s a good case to acquire.
First of all, he will come out cheaper than Snell or Montgomery and won’t command a long-term deal, thus allowing the Mets to spend on other needs as well.
Second, Giolito will eat up innings, which would be a huge plus for the Mets, given the uncertainty of their overall bullpen. Giolito pitched 184 1/3 innings this past season in 2023. That is the fourth time since 2018 that he pitched at least 170 innings in a season. The Mets have not received much from their starting rotation in terms of going deep into games, so Giolito would help a lot in terms of that.
Giolito also has strikeout stuff, as he amassed 204 Ks in 2023, which ranked sixth in the American League.
Overall in 2023, his numbers don’t look impressive with an 8-15 record, 4.88 ERA and giving up 41 home runs. Those 41 home runs should drop if he pitches at pitcher friendly Citi Field. He did have a solid first half. During his second half struggles, he went through some personal issues with a divorce and was also traded twice.
Giolito is only 29 and was a former All Star. So, he is still in his prime and so if healthy and not facing any distractions off the field, Giolito is still an attractive option for the Mets pitching staff and wouldn’t affect their payroll drastically.
Giolito was a sub average pitcher in the past two years. He profiles as a SP#4 starter with his durability as a plus. He is only 29 years old and has the potential to improve. MLBTR pr predicts 2/$44m. I think it is a little to steep. He is a strange case to predict. Because of his durability and eating innings I would offer him 5/$85m with a player opt-out in 2 years. At least the Mets would have a reliable SP#4 if he doesn’t improve for the length of the contract or maybe a SP#2 for two years.
That doesn’t make sense to me. Why would you pay $17 million per year for what you call an SP4? Giolito has put up an 86 ERA+ the past two years. For comparison, David Peterson has a 92 ERA+ and Tylor Megill has an 86 ERA+ in the same time frame. Giolito has more IP than either of those two but that’s because the Mets weren’t looking for reasons to pitch these guys any more than they had to.
If the Mets offer this type of contract, it’s like they’re betting on Giolito to be good enough that he leaves after two years. Because if he continues to post an 86 ERA+, he’s not worth paying $17 million per year. I’d rather see Hamel or Scott or Tidwell at minimum wage in 2026 than pay $17 million for an 86 ERA+ Giolito.
$17m+ was paid for: Jameson in 2023 4/$68, Mikolas 3/$55.75m, T. Walker 4/$72m. Wacha at age 28 and 29 was worse than the last two years that Giolito produce. He just signed a 2/$32m (another missed opportunity for the Mets)
I am saying is 5/$85m isn’t an outrageous contract even if he doesn’t improve. Giolito was a better pitcher in 2019-21 than any that I listed above and certainly has a better resume than Peterson or Megill. At 29 years old there is a possibility of pitching better. At this point I would rather have Montgomery than Giolito but for some reason the Mets don’t want you sign Montgomery. Imanaga or Giolito would be less expensive but the market in getting tight. Giolito maybe turn out to be a bargain.
Giolito had a 2.8 fWAR the previous two seasons. Lets compare that to the other pitchers you mentioned:
Jameson had a 4.2 fWAR the two years before
Mikolas had a 3.3 fWAR the two years before his extension for 3/$55.
Walker had a 4.1 fWAR the two previous years
While Wacha was worse at a similar age, he’s been better the past two years, putting up a 4.1 fWAR in that span. When he was bad he made $3 million dollars in 2021 and $7 million in 2022. He got paid what he did when he put up numbers better than what Giolito did.
I get that you’re trying to establish comps. But your proposal was for the most part above what these guys got and for a longer term. Besides, this is like the little kid who tells his mom that he wants to go do something because his friends were all doing it. And mom responds – if your friends all jumped off the roof, would you want to do it, too?
Sometimes no is a perfectly good answer. And I’m glad the Mets didn’t offer what you proposed. The two year deal he did sign with Boston is better. Still wouldn’t call it good.
Giolito just went to Red Sox for 2 years and 38.5 M$
Case closed.