On Thursday, I gave my overall take on the Mets’ offseason so far. In the interim was this email conversation with ChrisF about that very subject. We started off with this question: So, what grade would you give the Mets this offseason and why?
Chris: I’m giving the present state of the off season as B-. I believe that David Stearns is executing Steve Cohen’s plan, even if it’s not to the liking of most fans, who thought every year would be an FA extravaganza. Ya know, am I excited about any of the signings? Perhaps a little, but not overwhelmed. I don’t have the belief in Brett Baty or Mark Vientos as a 3B duo (or as the main person at the hot corner) or in a Vientos/DJ Stewart DH combo. In Stearns’ interview, he made it clear that the recently promoted and those likely to be promoted will get real playing time in ‘24. The fact is this is an exploratory year. So, I really don’t care much about the incoming the FAs. I think I would have added Justin Turner for help at 3B, including teaching the kids, and part time DH. So, I’m grading the overall moves on a curve.
Brian: My grade for the offseason is C-/D+ depending on my mood that moment. More so than any signing, the best thing in my mind is Stearns saying that young players need a chance. That’s a refreshing change from what we’ve witnessed in Queens for over a decade. Baty can’t complain about the chance he got last year. But I’m looking forward to Vientos getting a similar-sized chance in 2024. And I want Jose Butto to get that chance, too.
Let’s talk about some of the individual moves, beginning with the Luis Severino signing. We heard right away that Severino was a target, so it’s not a surprise that he ended up with the Mets. From what we can see statistically, there’s almost nothing to recommend signing Severino. But we hear talk about how he might have been tipping pitches and how tweaks here and there could make a world of difference. As a fan, it sounds great. I’m just not sure how much faith I can put in mechanical tweaks fixing everything.
But my real problem is the contract, rather than the player. There was so much emphasis on a short-term deal that it puts all of the risk on the team and all of the reward on the player. If Severino is as bad as he was last year, he gets one nice payday before going out to pasture. And if he’s good, he hightails it out of here for a lucrative deal elsewhere. My belief is that this deal should have come with a team option. What’s your take on the Severino signing?
Chris: My first reaction with Severino was “yuk.” My second thought was “depth starter piece” until I saw the contract, which is not particularly likable. I sort of live in the camp of there’s no bad one-year deal, and that, returning to a past comment on an article a couple weeks back, starters will be making more money than they are worth. Plain and simple, the trend is to pitch less and make more: the return on investment is going down considerably (I have not run the numbers on how much, however). I don’t think that Stearns has any real intent to sign him next season, so this is a genuine stop-gap measure. I also can’t help but wonder if it was a smoke signal that might help gravitationally attract Yamamoto; not quite Ohtani to be sure. To me this is a disposable, but “must have,” signing. I’m not crazy about the player and utterly indifferent about the contract.
Interesting you mention mechanics changes related to Severino. Do you mean actual delivery or set up changes (where on rubber he starts, arm angle, pitch grips etc.) or the pitch tipping issue he seemed to have suffer from last year? If it’s the former, I agree – I don’t see that as making a deal. However, I have a lot of confidence they can address the tipping issue to immediate positive effect. Unfortunately, neither will keep him healthy.
Staying with pitching, I guess it’s hard to avoid Stearns’ “long-term” signing with Sean Manaea, and his two-year deal. Even with his development of a “sweeper,” which I think will be much less effective than Senga’s “ghost fork” (what happened pitches in the past few years??), I have a hard time seeing Manaea eclipse his basic metrics of a 4-4.5 ERA, 100 ERA+, and a 1.2-1.4 WHIP. What do you like and not so much like about his acquisition?
Brian: If memory serves, they were talking more about set-up changes to fix the tipping with Severino.
I’m a little more bullish on Manaea than you are. While recognizing that the bulk of these innings came as a reliever, Manaea’s 3.44 ERA/3.15 FIP in his final 91.2 IP is way more encouraging than what Severino did last year. Plus, there was essentially no drop-off when he returned to the rotation, as Manaea posted a 2.25 ERA/3.21 FIP in his four September starts. And he’s been pretty durable since the beginning of 2020.
That being said, it’s still a contract where all of the risk lies with the Mets. Maybe it’s naïve of me to believe the Mets should have been able to get more team-friendly deals coming off a rotten season. But the best-case scenario is good pitching in 2024 and then watch him leave. Maybe he can pitch well enough to merit a QO and some draft-pick compensation.
It’s clear that the main goal was flexibility with one-year deals. But as the organization, don’t you want to keep guys beyond one year if they’re good? If you believe that Manaea is a quality SP, wouldn’t a 2/$33 deal with no opt out have been preferable? That seems reasonable after the 2/$37 deal that Marcus Stroman signed.
Finally, what’s your view on the Harrison Bader signing? Another flexibility deal for me. It’s nice that he can hit LHP and provides good defense. But the injury questions and his inability to hit RHP make me wonder why he’s worth any more than the arbitration estimate of $1.6 million for Tim Locastro.
Chris: If you liked that one-year, player-controlled, overpaid contract for that ever-healthy ex Bronx-ite, then you are *really* gonna love that two-year, player-controlled, no-hope contract for Mr. Lefty with the Magnificent Flow. It looks like a total bungle to me, but I suppose a two-year deal is so limited financially that maybe the team doesn’t care about actually having a say in what happens. I think that is really part of my indifference about the ’24 class of free agents. I sure hope Manaea pans out more along your path. I hope to be pleasantly surprised.
I digress, so on to Bader. Not really knowing anything about Stearns’ overarching baseball philosophy until recently, I read the other day that he is a pitching and defense centric thinker that values run prevention as well as run production. Count me in for that. So that realization frames the Bader acquisition better than my initial reaction of “seriously?”
Hard to argue this signing as another example of stuffing the turkey with nameless, faceless, middling free agents that have potential high upside (and potentially higher floors), but which is tempered by injury or down-turn seasons that cast shadows. It will be nice to have a Juan Lagares type patrolling Citi Field’s vast center field; the flip side is it won’t be that nice to have Lagares’ balsa-wood bat as well. I suppose if he can come up with another Gold Glove season that would justify the signing, or at least we will be told that. And really, this seems exactly like the kind of move you make to take the path that is neither wholesale rebuild nor free-agent palooza.
Overall, I am ok with these selections because I see the team moving to a real plan to build a team with seniority balance. If Stearns can get the team to a place where enough young, controlled, quality players occupy most positions, then fill the remainder with a number of free agents at the peaks of their careers it will all be worth it.
I’ll give the offseason a C, which is a passing grade, solely because of the Mets’ biggest offseason acquisition: David Stearns.
After a whirlwind of caretaker GMs, agents-turned-wanna-be GMs, and failed-elsewhere GMs since 2018, we finally have one with real gravitas, one who is young enough and smart enough to adapt to the “new” baseball reality, one with a track record of success, and one with a 5-year contract.
I am bullish on the future for this team, and I think Stearns and Steve Cohen are as well. Unfortunately, he needs at least 12 months to implement what is probably the real plan. Meantime, there is a season coming up in between now and then that they need to sell tickets and advertising space for. Hence Bader, Severino, etc.
It’s a tough spot for everyone, especially those of us who live and breathe all things Mets. This is making the best of (what to put charitably) is a less than ideal situation. While some of the blame lies with the Wilponian mismanagement, Cohen’s spending sprees haven’t helped.
In an earlier post on this site, I stated that the best outcome is that much more goes right than wrong this year and they grab a WC spot. I’m standing by that. Hope springs eternal, as Ralph Kiner used to say.
I’ll give Stearns a B-, if he brings in two decent relievers.
I would have liked Justin Turner to have been signed (for reasons stated above), but am curious to see what Vientos can do at DH/3B. Manaea should be pretty good, given his later stats, and Severino might surprise. If they do well, sign them for another couple of years, along with giving Alonso his dough. I’ve got mixed feelings about Bader, whom might surprise us, but might not. Who knows?
I am looking forward to seeing Acuña, Gilbert, Vasil, and maybe even Scott later in the year. By 2026, we might have an OF of Nimmo, Williams, and Gilbert. Or maybe Soto will be out there! Mauricio could be the regular 3Bman, and Burnes, Senga, Scott, Tidwell, and Vasil could be our starting rotation.
I love this site & the thoughtful analysis, discussion & tone. My take is that guys like Turner may not want to come here because they can find places where they can get guaranteed playing time & the Mets can’t offer this. They must let Vientiane & Baty play for the bulk of the year to see what they have & proceed. Also, Vientiane only has one option left so he has to start with the team & take lots of reps as a full time DH & start on the short side of the 3B platoon against lefties until Baty established himself against RH pitching. Wendel is a purely spot starter, backup at 2B when Jeff plays OF & defensive replacement at 3B in close games to start the year.
In an article in the NY Post today, Joel Sherman writes:
“Both New York clubs know that in recruitment of free agents they have to overcome elements such as high city/state taxes, perceptions about traffic and the safety of living here, and tough media and fan bases. And that often means 1) paying a premium to convince someone to come, and 2) trying to create an environment of comfort for players and their families that word spreads that this is a first-class place to play.
Let’s remember that even in this offseason of “austerity,” the Mets matched the Dodgers’ bid for Yamamoto. That they were not asked to go higher screams that once it got to this range, Yamamoto was going to his preference in Los Angeles.”
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It bewilders me to see how people without knowing what’s going on will pass judgment on those who do without question. It happens in my own family, but I thought we were just weird that way.
The only person in all of Mets Nation that knows how much a pitching lab can help is David Stearns, because he had one in Milwaukee. I think we should let the man do his job.
I give the Mets an A for this off-season. The starting pitching market is going nuts this off-season and if Stearns made these signings in early November, I can see the frowns. But, they were made in January, so how much longer should have he held out? Giolito insisted on a second year and got it from Boston. The Mets obviously preanned to only sign a specific multi-year, and when that didn’t happen, they weren’t tying themselves down to players they weren’t in love with. I have zero issues with the nine guys in the lineup because I’m expecting the heavy lifting to be done by the big four, five if you include Marte who looks good in winter ball. As for the pitching, I’m holding my breath but I’m not throwing stones.
The pros and cons of New York City are nothing new. Tom Seaver lived in Connecticut. Keith Hernandez lived in Manhattan. No matter if you prefer calm, wealthy suburbs or to be right in the middle of things, you can find something in your comfort zone in NYC and the surrounding areas.
Luis Severino signed on 12/1.
I think the Manaea signing was good, while very less than thrilled with the other two mentioned in the headline. How long would I have waited? Until Feb. 1, at least. Would that have caused me to miss out on either Bader or Severino? Sure, that’s a possibility. But my opinion is that you could get reasonable facsimiles – if not outright better versions – for 1/4 the cost if you waited out the market.
They targeted Severino immediately. I wasn’t referring to him, but rather Bader and Manaea. They seem to be decisions that weren’t as focused. Severino was targeted because of his anticipated return to success from his injuries last year.
Gus, personally when grading GM performance and/or specific moves, it is done with the understanding that none of us have access to anywhere near as much information as the pros. That also doesn’t mean the pixels are always right.
FWIW, my Stearns grade would be incomplete. Let’s see how they finish.
With respect to Hader, Severino, and Manaea…I get all 3. Grade makes sense as a stop gap. As I wrote on the prior article, my preference on the pitching side would have been an outside the box Hicks signing over the commitments to Severino and Manaea. I prefer having multiple years of control of a quality arm, giving him a shot to start in 2024. He’ll be useful in 2025-7 whether it’s starting or relieving. At best Manaea and Seve help the Mets only in 2024, a year that they are a long shot.
I agree with Brian’s grumpy day D+. As a fan, I am consistently amazed to see others in the blogosphere justify ownership’s bargain bin signings to save money and reset the CBT. I was hoping Cohen would be a ’70s-era Steinbrenner signing every great FA to compete for the pennant every year.
This “transitional” year is disappointing. Cohen is one of the wealthiest people on the planet who bought a major market franchise. Spend to win. Don’t sign half-measures like Severino, Manaea, and Bader. Build a team to beat the Braves for the division.
Fans shouldn’t justify owners trying to make money. Fans should demand to win every year and not accept mediocrity, especially in NY. 2024 is shaping up to be a mediocre year. That’s why I’ve ignored the Mets tickets office’s calls to renew my ticket plan. I’ve voted with my feet.
The Yankees have Soto. The Dodgers have Ohtani and Yamamoto. Mets fans must expect the best or keep getting 4th-place teams and deserve it. A double centibillionaire owns the team. Don’t rationalize saving money. Rant over.
It is worth remembering that owners who try to build through free agency don’t succeed very often.
Steinbrenner made some great signings, but the Yankees didn’t start their incredible WS run in the ’90s until George was sidelined. It was Gene Michael who built that dynasty through drafting and trades. (See https://yanksgoyard.com/2020/08/03/yankees-revisiting-george-steinbrenner-banned-baseball/)
Gene Autrey is another prime example. He tried to build through free agency. When free agency started he signed Joe Rudi Don Baylor and Bobby Grich. Subsequently, he signed Rod Carew, Fred Lynn, and Jim Rice, but he never won a WS.
It would please me mightily if the Mets built a team entirely of homegrown everyday players with an occasional free-agent star pitcher.
After signing Reggie Jackson for the 1977 season and Goose Gossage in 1978, the Yankees won two WS (77, 78), another pennant in 81, and the division in 80. Reggie went on a tear under the contract and Goose was a lights-out reliever.
Nothing guarantees a pennant, but marquee free agents can put a team over the top.
I’ll also give a C grade to the off-season thus far. Lots of depth pieces, huge group of relievers with the hope that a few step up, and a couple of retread starters on the wrong side of thirty. Aside from Senga, there is not a strong starter on the roster. I too want to give Butto a shot, but he’s not a #2, so they still need a front line starter to compete. Not to block the kids, but if your D is a little suspect, than you better mash at the plate. Vientos has the better shot, and isn’t it just like the Mets to lose Mauricio for the season? No new big bat yet. Soler would fit the bill even if all he did was DH. Can’t really depend on Stewart to hold up his side of the DH platoon and wishing on Vientos from the other side is wishful thinking. Hard to have patience, but that’s what Met fans always need.
Severino had a -1.5 WAR, 19 GS last year and a 1.6 WAR in 2022. Sean Manaea had a 0.3 WAR, 10 GS last year and a -0.8 WAR,28 GS in 2022. Joey Lucchesi had a 1.1 WAR, 9 GS last year. Jose Butto had a 0.9 WAR, 7 GS last year. If Severino does bounce back to 2022, a swing of 3.1 WAR, there is a possibility that Lucchesi or Butto (or both), would be above a 1.6 WAR. The $27m could have been spent for a top line starter. Senga, Eduardo Rodriguez, Quintana, Lucchesi and Butto with depth of Hauser, Megill and Peterson.
Bader at $10m is a luxury that the Mets can’t afford. He can’t hit RHP which is two of three games played. Marte’s questionable health and age called for an everyday outfielder. That concern was ignored. Another concern that was ignored was the production at third base and DH. If Baty, Vientos and Stewart are given a chance then the lineup can’t withstand another offensive hole.
Ottavino was lost and his spot wasn’t filled.
Stearns didn’t improve the team in the off-season with his key acquisitions. I give him a grade of D+.
So, that’s me, Dan Capwell, Paulc, 6986 and Metsense at C or below and ChrisF, Steve_S. and Gus at B and up
The wide spread of grades reflects what each believes the team should do. I personally don’t think going after the post season this year is the top priority, for example, it is not ahead of giving major league tryouts to the youngin’s including the new crop of Gilbert, Jett, Acuna Jr etc. To me, I can see how that would not justify spending more or to be doing displacing them by everyday middling FAs. I maintain Stearns is executing Cohen’s vision to sustainable winning but not doing it by a full rebuild. Really they should look to shed Lindor, Nimmo, Alonso, and Diaz for top prospects and build from the foundation.
Speaking only for myself, my low grade has come from $50 million of spending so far without – in my opinion – a very good chance at the playoffs. I would have graded higher if they were under the draft pick penalty.
Rebuild the Minors. Rebuild player development. Rebuild coaching. Rebuild trainers room. Everything else is irrelevant,
I think the Stearns and the Mets are being underestimated a bit. Yes, my grade of B- is contingent on the signing of two decent relievers (which I think will happen). And maybe Stearns will sign the soon-to-be Jorge Solar for DH/OF (I’d give him the 3-year deal for $48 million). The Mets should win more than the 75 games that was “achieved” in 2023, getting to 85 wins or so.
Why? Diaz will close (a plus, even though Robertson did well in his place last year); McNeil and Marte should be solid again; the defense will be improved; Alvarez will progress; Vientos (given a real chance) could easily surprise—both in the field and at bat; the starting rotation of Senga, Quintana, Severino, Manaea, and Houser is decent (no Carrasco!! Quintana for the entire year), with four good depth guys (a couple of whom might be in the pen as long relievers); Alonso should do better, like Judge before free agency; and there’s talent in the high minors to be brought up (Gilbert, Williams, Acuna, Stuart, Lavender, Vasil, and more).
With what’s been said by Cohen and what’s been done by Stearns and what’s been reported by Martino – why would you expect either a three-year deal or an AAV of $16 million for anyone right now?
“Expect”? It was a hopeful “maybe”. Anyway, Cohen could go for one signing, saying what the hell.