My guess is that no one is thrilled with the rotation the Mets appear ready to do battle with in 2024. Last year, we hoped that the five pitchers penciled into the rotation in January would all make 30 starts. Turns out that none of them did, at least for the Mets. Here’s how it worked out:
29 – Kodai Senga
25 – Tylor Megill
21 – David Peterson
20 – Carlos Carrasco
19 – Max Scherzer
16 – Justin Verlander
13 – Jose Quintana
9 – Joey Lucchesi
7 – Jose Butto
3 – Denyi Reyes
How might it be with those numbers and the pitchers currently in the organization? Here’s one guess:
29 – Senga
25 – Quintana
21 – Sean Manaea
20 – Adrian Houser
19 – Lucchesi
16 – Butto
13 – Luis Severino
9 – Megill
7 – Peterson
3 – Mike Vasil
That would be a total of 54 starts for the three starters the club imported this season. And in a happy coincidence, it would be 54 starts, too, for the two remaining starters that the Mets added in 2022. And it would be 54 starts for guys who pitched in the minors last year.
Pitching pitching and more pitching.
Sadly still a fair bit uncertain for the rest of the team too. Once you start promoting the junior guys, its just MLB tryout time. And its gonna happen regardless of the “race” to post season, which I would rank as a third priority for 2024. The pain was coming no matter what, and 2024 is the year.
I expect to see quite a bit of Baty and Vientos, and it will require patience. Add Williams, Gilbert, and Acuna at the least for position players and well, thats gonna take its toll as they learn to play and the team experiments if any have the chops.
Of the 5 there, I think you maybe hit once or twice. And that will lead to a lot of losses, regardless of point one: pitching pitching pitching.
I think we need to enjoy the ride and hope to have some of the top prospects connect so next years off season becomes clear early.
Question: What prospects would people envision as trade pieces?
I think everyone besides Jett Williams should be on the table in a potential deal. But that potential deal has to be better than the warm bodies that BVW liked to trade minor league guys for when he was running the show.
I don’t think any prospects are trade pieces just yet. The situation is still in too much flux, and the minors system still has too many holes to fill. I don’t see where this team/system has much surplus. If a couple of younger players/prospects establish themselves as bona fide foundation pieces, then you might be able to start trading off a player or two at their positions. But we’re really not there yet.
Pitchers and catchers will report to Port St. Lucie, Fla. on Feb. 14.
The team’s first full workout will take place on Feb. 19.
The Mets open their Grapefruit League schedule on Feb. 24 against the St. Louis Cardinals in Port St. Lucie.
Opening Day is March 28 at Citi Field against the Milwaukee Brewers.
It’s an uninspired rotation. I prefer to “buy the arms and grow the bats,” so I wanted to see more top-shelf FA pitchers signed or acquired through trades while the Mets have a good core of Lindor, Nimmo, McNeil, and Alonso (maybe add Alvarez). The window on that core four will close soon, possibly next season if Alonso goes. It’s a shame to gamble it on a bunch of reclamation project SPs.
I don’t think the Mets are gambling so much as recognizing that this will not be their year. The thing is, there really aren’t any top-shelf pitchers on the market this year. Montgomery is good to very good. but not an ace. Snell is a crapshoot, winning a Cy young once every 6 years, but thoroughly mediocre in those 5 in-between years. But they’re the best on the market, so they’re both looking for ace dollars and years. (Snell is reportedly asking for at least $240 million. No mention of years, but I can’t see a number that will make sense for a pitcher of his ilk). Let’s say they Mets signed both of those guys.
And like you said, the window on those four core position players is closing soon. When it does, you will be stuck with a couple of overpriced, yet mediocre, and perhaps overaged pitchers sucking down money that is needed elsewhere.