Mets 2024 projections: Kodai Senga

This begins the 12th year we’ve done projections here at Mets360. These are important to me because people who say they “just knew” Player X was going to be good or bad after the fact drive me up the wall. You want to impress me? Share that knowledge before the season starts. Even with all of the tools available to us today, it’s difficult to make projections. Sure, you can get a few that are right. But if you do 15 or more – which is what is typically done here – you won’t get a dozen right.

Last year’s forecasts here were not particularly good. But one player that was projected rather well was Kodai Senga. This was the conclusion to Senga’s article last year:

My opinion is that if he’s able to throw strikes, he’s going to dominate. If he has the WHIP that ZiPS forecasts, he’ll have a sub-3.00 ERA. Here’s my totally biased forecast for Senga this year:

155 IP, 3.25 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 180 Ks, 13 HR

Senga finished with 166.1 IP, a 2.98 ERA and a 1.220 WHIP. He threw more innings than expected but if we convert strikeouts to K/9, my prediction was for a 10.5 K/9 and he had a 10.9 rate. Same thing with home runs, as my HR/9 forecast was for a 0.8 rate and Senga put up a 0.9 last season.

There will be no more self-congratulations in this projection series. Anyway, it’s time to look ahead. Let’s start with what the computer models think. Not all of the projection systems are available yet on FanGraphs. Once they post them, they will be included on the individual ones here going forward.

ATC – 171 IP, 3.64 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.46 K/9, 1.09 HR/9
Marcel – 143 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.266 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
Steamer – 187 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 10.36 K/9, 1.08 HR/9
ZiPS – 161 IP, 3.63 ERA, 1.292 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 1.09 HR/9

It was a surprise to me last year how close the computer forecasts were with Senga. Marcel did not have a forecast for him a season ago. And we can see that Marcel is an outlier here, with fewer IP, a lower ERA, a lower K/9 and a higher HR/9 than the more sophisticated systems. The most interesting thing to me is the IP total for Steamer, which sees Senga tossing 187 innings. Last year 187 IP would have been the 18th-best mark in the majors. Just among Steamer forecasts, it ties for the 16th-most.

It would be great if Senga threw that many innings but we should probably take the under on that one.

After giving up four runs in back-to-back starts in June, Senga did not allow four runs in a game the rest of the year. His final 15 starts saw him notch 89.2 IP, a 2.51 ERA and a 1.115 WHIP. Back in the 20th Century, we would talk about a new pitcher having an advantage until the rest of the league saw him multiple times. But with all of the technology in the game today, that no longer applies. Instead, it seems we saw a pitcher adapt to his new surroundings and dominate once he settled in.

My intention with the projection series this year is not to be as optimistic as in the past. But it’s hard to do that with Senga. The big wildcard will be if the Mets give him extra rest like they did in 2023. My opinion is that they should. But with a new manager and a new front office in place, it’s hard to predict how they will handle this. Senga has stated that he doesn’t want any special treatment here. But if the choice is a continuation of what he did last year or gamble that he can do that with fewer days of rest – well, that doesn’t seem like a good gamble to me. Here’s my totally biased forecast for Senga this year:

169 IP, 2.79 ERA, 1.177 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 0.74 HR/9

You’ll have more credibility if you weigh in now with what you think Senga will do this season. We got off to a late start with the projection series, so there will likely be another entry before the end of the week to help catch up.