Most people see Pete Alonso hit 46 HR and drove in 118 runs and figure it was another great season. But his wRC+ – the most-advanced tool we have to rate offensive productivity – dropped 20 points, putting 2023 just a single point ahead of his 2020 season. And after posting 3.8 fWAR in 2022, Alonso’s mark was 2.8 last year. And it was that high only because his baserunning and defense were (relatively) better a season ago.
For the great majority of players, the average fan focuses on what the player can’t do and ignores most everything else. With Alonso, we have the exact opposite. Everyone focuses on his home runs – which are fantastic!!! – and pretend that nothing else matters. But last year the strikeouts went up and the BABIP went down, which contributed to a down year. Here’s what the computer models forecast for the upcoming season:
ATC -– 651 PA, .249/.339/.523, 42 HR
Marcel – 598 PA, .250/.337/.509, 36 HR
Steamer – 648 PA, .250/.340/.515, 41 HR
ZiPS – 636 PA, .242/.336/.475, 34 HR
All of the models see Alonso bouncing back in BABIP to essentially reach his lifetime .259 mark in the category. Additionally, they all see him virtually with his lifetime 9.9 BB%, too. But none of them see Alonso matching his .287 ISO from 2023, with ATC’s .273 being the best mark. That’s not a huge surprise, given that Alonso posted his highest ISO since his rookie season. What is troublesome is ZiPS’ .233 ISO, which would be a career-worst mark.
ATC (130) and Steamer (131) see Alonso matching the wRC+ numbers from 2021, although still behind his 141 mark from 2022. But ZiPS sees him tying 2020’s mark of 120. Marcel doesn’t give wRC+ – or OPS+ – numbers but it’s reasonable to eye ball the line and believe that it would project a number around 125 or so.
Broadcasters talk about how Alonso sets a goal and then works hard to achieve it. My hope is that Alonso’s goal this year is to cut down chasing low and low and outside when he has two strikes in the count. If a pitcher beats him upstairs or paints the lower part of the strike zone, tip your cap and take the whiff. But these Ike Davis-like flails at pitches low and out of the strike zone have to stop.
All of the projection systems see Alonso with a lower K% than 2023, with Marcel’s 20.9% the lowest of them all. Last year he had a 22.9 K% and in 2022 it was a career-best 18.7 rate. The big question is if Alonso can somehow combine the K% of 2022 with the ISO of 2023. If so, he might challenge for the most-productive season of his career, which was the 144 RC+ in 2019.
Mets fans love Alonso and rightly so. A homegrown star who is a fantastic HR hitter, he also plays every day and gives 100% effort all of the time. There’s an awful lot to like about Alonso. But the cold-blooded reality is to accurately rate the value of what he gives, versus the reality of what his decline years would look like, and balance those things versus the salary it would take to retain him.
But this projection piece isn’t about what he’ll do in 2025 and beyond. Instead, it’s simply a look at the 2024 season, where Alonso will perform at age 29. Here’s my totally biased forecast for him:
625 PA, .245/.340/.520, 44 HR
Wow! What a difference a year makes re: how we all see Pete. Looking at the 2023 predictions for him by Metsense, BoomBoom, myself, and you Brian, I thought I was being a bit gloomy. Kudos to Metsense for getting his 46 HR’s right. Looks like my SLG prediction of .525 was the lowest one given to him….and Pete lowered his floor there with a .504. Yikes!
I am (almost) certain that Pete will be dealt at the trade deadline, but his overall numbers for the full season will be PA 650 .240 AVG, .333 OBP, .525 SLG. His K rate will to about 20.5 and his walk rate will be 10, as he shows better overall plate discipline in what is his walk year. All of these numbers are purely my “gut” feelings, totally biased; as he turns into Harmon Killebrew.
I think Alonso has a contract walk year like Judge did, although without the .300 avg.
586 PA, .266/.355/.580, 55 HR
Alonso wasn’t patient and selective enough last year. He became homerun thumper and not a hitter. Maybe this year he will be more of a hitter.
660 PA , 242/334/511 , 42 HR
I’m thinking 590 PA, .265/.360/.530 48 HR
Perhaps a better hitting coach can work on the chase and the K’s. Lots of their hitters needed help that they did not get.
If they are going to trade him then now versus the trade deadline would seem to bring a bigger haul. Can just see him coming back to Citifield and crashing a few bombs on some first place team? It really all comes down to dollars and no one getting a 6-8 year contract at his age will be worth the expense, but what if he can bring a title or two here in the next 3-4 years. Who would care that he is a financial drain at the end?
Alonso seems to me the kind of a person and player that may struggle in his walk year. I think he will press. I think his batting average will go up to maybe .238 to .242. 38 to 42 home runs.
What we don’t know is whether he really wants to leave or not. And if he wants to leave where will he go?
What we also don’t know are the Mets plan for him. I just have a feeling that the Mets aren’t going to resign him, especially if he gets to free agency. Some team will offer him a big deal.
If I get to pick Alonso or Soto, I am going with Soto.
Duh on my part. I forgot to mention my prediction for the number of HR’s for him…… 44.
Walk year time!
670 PA, .260/.345/.535, 51 HR
Agree with Brian, except 675 PA. SABR ran an article that says enhanced “walk year” performance is not a thing and I agree. It will have no effect on Pete’s production. After Nimmo, he’s my favorite on the current roster. Going to miss his HRs, attitude, and playing 160 games a year.
Here’s the article for those who care: https://sabr.org/journal/article/do-players-outperform-in-a-walk-season/
Agree with Brian but I’ll go with the Price is Right play and say 45 HR.