A lot of us thought that the Mets overpaid to get Francisco Lindor, sending out a non-insignificant package of players to acquire him and then extending him to a 10/$341 contract before he hit free agency, in a season where there were multiple top-shelf shortstops available. But Lindor has been tremendous as a Met. In three years in Queens, he’s put up a combined 16.8 fWAR, including a 6.0-mark last season, one in which he became just the fourth player in team history to notch a 30-30 campaign.
Lindor’s done this despite battling some injury problems. Two years ago, it was a fractured finger suffered when he closed his hotel room door on his hand. Last season it was a bone spur in his right elbow that he had surgery to remove in early October. And he missed just three games combined the past two years. It will be curious to see if the team’s new manager will play him every day this upcoming season. Here’s what the computer models think Lindor will produce in 2024:
ATC – 653 PA, .253/.332/.448, 27 HR
Marcel – 614 PA, .256/.335/.452, 25 HR
Steamer – 665 PA, .253/.333/.446, 27 HR
THE BAT – 653 PA, .256/.332/.459, 28 HR
ZiPS – 646 PA, .253/.332/.443, 25 HR
As expected for a veteran player, the models all see very similar seasons for Lindor. Perhaps the main thing that may make you question these forecasts is that they all predict a player with a lifetime BABIP of .292 to put up a mark 10-15 points lower. But even that makes sense, as he’s put up two years in the last three with a BABIP beneath his career mark.
His 31 SB last year were a career-high. But in no other major category did Lindor set a personal-best. And even the stolen bases have to come with a slight asterisk, as they came in a season where steals were up all over the league, thanks to the new rules mandating larger bases and limiting the pickoff throws allowed by a pitcher. You could make the case that Lindor – along with many, many others – didn’t run enough last year.
This will be Lindor’s age-30 season. Maybe it’s not wise to forecast a career-high for him in any category. At the same time, we shouldn’t be shocked if that’s what happens. Could a healthy Lindor top his all-time best of 183 hits or 44 doubles or 38 homers? We should at least consider the possibility. Here’s my totally biased forecast for Lindor in 2024:
664 PA, .274/.357/.460, 27 HR
A healthy Lindor…. PA 675 .268/.355/.455 HR 32 I don’t think he’ll steal 30 bases again though.
The only time I have posted a forecast on Mets360 was Cano’s first year with NYM – I can’t imagine such a reasonable predication being so incredibly wrong compared to reality
Thence, I’ll merely add on to what yous two have already prognosticated with care and reason
From 2020 to 2023, Lindor’s OPS+ has been 115
So I’ll predict his 2024 OPS+ will be 115
The alcoholics have this thing where they say it’s been XX days since my last drink. We should have a thing where we go it’s XX days since anyone mentioned the old, overpaid 2X drug cheat.
Lindor is ready to best last year’s numbers. And win a gold glove.
700 PA, .275/.340/.485, 32 HR
An excellent signing, on track for best Mets free agent ever — up there with Beltran.
270/340/470, 27 HR, 28 SB.
Pray for good health. Off to a bad start with Senga.
Lindor is the best Mets player and he is on the road to Cooperstown. He is a elite defender and it’s a joy to watching play shortstop.
Congratulations to NYM6986 for last year’s projections for getting the SLG exactly correct. BoomBoom missed the HR total by 1. Brian was best on PA and I had was only 3 off in BA and OBP.
This year I’ll project:
651 PA 252/333/450 27 HR
I’m so glad you re keeping track/score.
Compare Lindor s career numbers through his first 9 seasons with Derek Jeters. Jeter had a higher BA but his BABIP was also ridiculously high in comparison. Lindor has the power advantage and is a better defender. If he keeps it up he ll enter the hall with a Mets cap on and possible go down as our greatest every day player.
650 AB .
.270/.338/475/818
34 hr. 108 rbs. 35 sb. 104 runs scored. Gold glove. Top 10 MVP.
I believe Lindor will have some improvement and pick up some extra RBI if Marte is healthy and in the two hole. I also see 30 plus stolen bases.
600PA .265/.340/.470. 30HR 115 RBI