Mets 2024 projections: Luis Severino

We heard right away once the offseason started that the Mets were interested in Luis Severino. And he was the first major player they signed under David Stearns. None of us were really sure how the offseason was going to play out. But if we put more weight on the Severino deal at the time, it would have given us the blueprint – bounce-back candidates on short-term deals.

My immediate reaction to the signing was not positive. There’s virtually nothing in Severino’s recent record to indicate he’s a good bet to rediscover what once made him one of the top pitchers in the league. Injuries have been a big problem and even if he avoids them in 2024, what’s the likelihood that Severino can turn back the clock with his results? Here’s what the computer models think:

ATC – 120 IP, 4.59 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.46 K/9, 1.40 HR/9
Marcel – 112 IP, 4.90 ERA, 1.357 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 1.6 HR/9
Steamer – 147 IP, 4.29 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.62 K/9, 1.36 HR/9
THE BAT – 122 IP, 4.60 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 7.92 K/9, 1.30 HR/9
ZiPS – 86.1 IP, 4.80 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.24 K/9, 1.25 HR/9

Steamer is the most optimistic forecast, with the most IP and the lowest ERA. The most interesting thing to me are the K/9 projections. When he was at the top of his game, Severino had a double-digit K/9 rate. Even his most recent good season in 2022, he had a 9.88 mark in the category. But none of these five systems see him cracking a 9.0 mark. It would seem to me that if Severino is going to be worthwhile, he won’t do it with an average or worse strikeout rate.

Another thing that jumped out at me is how many innings that four of the five models projected. In the last four seasons – dating back to 2019, since he did not pitch in the Covid year – Severino’s high in innings is 102. Yet only ZiPS thinks he’ll fail to crack triple digits. With his solid results in 2022 in nearly two-thirds of a season, the ERA forecasts above seem somewhat believable. But it’s tough to say that about the innings projections from the models.

The best case for a Severino rebound is not what we can glean from the statistical record. Rather, you have to believe that Stearns and the front office have identified something mechanical that they can tweak. We’ve heard rumors that Severino was tipping his pitches last year. Certainly, a 2.32 HR/9 might indicate the batters knew what was coming.

Let’s say that Severino solves the tipping issue. There are still two things that bother me. The first is if he’ll be healthy enough to be in the rotation for 25-plus starts. Severino has had just about every injury you can imagine, with a trip to the IL for shoulder problems and two stops there for his elbow. There’s also been IL trips for his lat (twice) and side, along with one IL trip with an “undisclosed” injury.

And the second is: Why should we believe that Severino can be productive if he somehow can stay healthy? No doubt that people will point to his 2022 campaign – 102 IP, 3.18 ERA – for the reason to think he can still be valuable. But that’s the extent of the positives in the last five years. We’re supposed to be impressed by a 20% chance that he’ll produce a season with a 1.4 fWAR?

My overwhelming preference is to be positive when it comes to the Mets. You look at my projections throughout the years and the vast majority of them were too optimistic. My hope here is that Severino fixes the tipping issue, stays healthy and puts up a year closer to 2018 than 2022. But that scenario is too bullish, even for me. My totally biased forecast for Severino in 2024 is:

65.2 IP, 5.48 ERA, 1.401 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 1.7 HR/9