Every great offense in baseball is built on the concept of balance. A lineup of sluggers only doesn’t work. Neither does a lineup consisting solely of singles’ hitters. Great offenses have some guys who get on base (and move themselves along) and others who drive them in.
In today’s game, the rule book is tilting the balance of the game toward players who run fast. The stolen base made a comeback last season and I expect that it will be an even bigger part of the game this coming season and beyond. The pitch clock and the limitation on throws over to first base aren’t going anywhere and players who can take advantage of these restrictions on pitchers will find themselves on second base a lot more frequently than in years past. Teams that have high on-base players who steal a total of 200+ bases will be the wave of the future. In 2023, the success rate for stolen bases MLB wide was around 80%.
The ability of a fast runner to advance that one 90 foot segment – from first base to second – has significant advantages for the offense on which he plays. The obvious advantage is that a runner on second is in scoring position, giving his team an opportunity to score a run with a mere single to left or right center. A secondary – but even greater – advantage is that a runner on second is not going to be the first out in a 6-4-3 ground ball double play. The twin-killing is the worst thing that can happen to a rally and the best thing for a pitcher. Taking that play out of the picture leads to an offense that has many more chances to score a run and to build on a rally. Just ask Felix Millan and Joe Torre. Millan went 4-for-4 in a game against the Houston Astros in July of 1975. Torre, hitting third in the lineup right behind Millan, grounded into four double plays that night, and the Mets lost 6-2.
Just as importantly, a runner on second base puts pressure on the pitcher to make perfect pitches, instead of just good ones. Pitchers who are trying to be perfect make mistakes that major league hitters crush. Even more threatening for pitchers is that there are more steals of third base than ever before. A runner on third base puts even more pressure on a pitcher – which leads to more mistakes.
On the power side of the balanced lineup, teams need multiple players who can hit the ball over the wall. In the aggregate, no team in the modern game with fewer than 250 home runs can claim to be a balanced offense. A team with three or four players who hit between 20-25 HRs with two more who hit 30+ is well on its way the 250 HRs.
Consider an offense that hits 250 HRs in a season. With an average of just one other runner on base, that’s 500 runs in just 250 at-bats. The 2023 Atlanta Braves (perhaps the best example of a high scoring offense in many years) scored 947 runs. They hit 307 HRs and stole 132 bases. By comparison, the 2001 Seattle Mariners – winners of 116 games – hit 169 HRs and stole 174 bases. As a team they had an OPS of .805 – but only one of their regulars hit more than 30 HRs. They scored 927 runs.
Looking at the game through this lens, one can see the outlines of where David Stearns is looking to take the Mets in coming years. He wants players who can get on base and take second before the next guy grounds into a double play. He wants guys who can hit the ball over the wall
and play multiple positions in the field. He wants some guys who can do all three.
Jett Williams, Luisangel Acuna, Drew Gilbert, Ronny Mauricio. Who knows if this crop of young players will pan out to be the next baseball superstars – but the tools are certainly there. Each of these young men hit the ball often and hard. They can all run like the wind and they can each play multiple defensive positions. Add to this mix a catcher, Francisco Alvarez, who has 30+ HRs a year written all over him, and Francisco Lindor, who can be relied upon to hit 25 HRs a season, and you have the makings of a balanced offense that can make loud noise.
“… no team in the modern game with fewer than 250 home runs can claim to be a balanced offense.”
Since the year 2000, there have been 14 teams to hit 250 homers
Since 2010, there have been 13 teams
Since 2020, there have been 3 teams
The Mets had the 10th-most homers last year with 215.
It appears that defense and speed will be priorities for the Stearns regime. This is a nice change from the Alderson era. If it works out the way I hope it does, Eppler will deserve some credit too. BTW, I just looked up Colin Houck’s high school stats and he stole 39 bases in 41 attempts over his 130 game career. He’s not a speed demon, rating as an above average runner, but that success rate sure implies that he’s a smart baserunner.
Good point Bill! I was coming to give Eppler the props for starting that search of prospects like Acuna and others that were more speed than brawn, but he got power too in Clifford. In Alderson’s defense, he preferred the sluggers to the rabbits because he claimed that only 16% of stolen bases lead to runs scored, whereas 100% of homeruns lead to runs scored and thus the emphasis.
I wish to add from my part that the Braves 132 steals were a result of one player having 71. That same player is now having knee issues again. It isn’t a very balanced team from that respect, but their team is so potent and deep in talent, it’s hard to see that as much of a weakness.
Still can’t imagine why teams abandon small ball when a bunt, a stolen base and a sac fly can bring in a much needed run for this offense. With Alonso, Lindor and Alvarez all hitting 25-30-42 HR, one more HR bat would also make a big difference. Maybe that will be Vientos. It will be an interesting season with fingers crossed.
Let’s look at our gold standard of teams, the 86 Mets. Two players hit more than 20 home runs, Carter and Strawberry. Whereas three players stole more than 25 bases, Dykstra, Strawberry and Mookie Wilson.
I like players like Keith Hernandez who hit .310 with a .413 on base percentage, hit 34 doubles, drove in 83 elruns with stellar defense.
I don’t like one dimensional players like McNeil. Ok if he hits .320, but if he hits .270 with no real power or speed, he is a liability.
I love players like Jett Williams and Acuna. They could be a terror at the top of the lineup. And I’ll take Soto in the middle of the lineup over Alonso.