Tylor Megill had a strong outing Tuesday versus the Yankees, as he spun three scoreless innings and notched six strikeouts. He threw 49 pitches and mixed in five different offerings, which broke down as follows:
24 – fastballs
12 – cutters
6 – curves
5 – splitters
2 – sliders
Megill got 10 swings and misses, including three with his splitter. It should be noted that it was a Yankee lineup without their biggest stars. Still, it’s hard to imagine a better outing for Megill. Of course, consistency from start to start has been the biggest problem for Megill in his career in the majors. He’s had some really good outings mixed with some ugly ones. The result has been a 4.72 ERA over 58 games and 52 starts. Can Megill find that consistency here in his fourth season in the majors? It will be a good thing for the Mets if he can.
We’ve had a lot of discussion about not putting much stock into spring training stats, but this was a Megill outing we all were waiting for. The Mets have split 10 SP games while the Dodgers are 9-3 and the O’s are 10-2. Wish that was us.
Out of curiosity, I wanted to compare the rotation for NYM starting 2024 with the ending stats of last 10 seasons. What I found, in light of the loss of Senga for up to 60 days, is alarming.
They had some pretty good rotations, with no surprise being 2015 and 2022, Despite the results in 2023, they had a respectable top 3.
2021 was fairly bleh, with Stro being very good, and JdG having half a season better than Gibby in 68.
To make this blurb even shorter, with few exceptions, they always seem to have at least 3 guys having OK to good seasons. And even when that number was down to 1 or 2, you always had The Superstar, even if he was there for only 1/2 or 1/3 a season.
2024, however, elicits terror. Who’s their #1, Quintana?
Thence, I think I’d be justified to think they are heading towards their first 90 L season since… 2009?
Yikes!
My opinion is that while a 90-loss season is on the table, I’d be surprised if they lost that many. A team with Alonso, Lindor, McNeil and Nimmo should be able to score enough runs to keep from losing 90 games, even if the pitching isn’t all that special. They were 23-22 in their final 45 games once McNeil and Nimmo started hitting for some power and Marte was out of the lineup. even with the depth starters making up most of the rotation.
From Bradford Doolittle at ESPN+
“Last season, just two teams had at least seven position players qualify for the batting title and at least three pitchers qualify for the ERA title. Those teams were the Phillies and Braves.”
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39631841/mlb-injury-index-teams-il-how-much-injuries-hurt-yankees
The Mets had 4 hitters and 1 pitcher qualify. May the Phillies and Braves live that life in 2024.
Would y’all be in favor of trading Pete Alonso to the Cubs for Cade Horton and giving Luke Voit the first shot at first base? What would be the pros and cons of such a trade? Who else do you think would have to be included to make it work?
No. Alonso is worth trying to keep. If he is not interested in extending, then maybe, but I’d like a little more. Horton is a great prospect, but we have a top 30 prospect trying to win a third base job and have had top prospects fail. For Michael Busch, who hasn’t done squat, they gave up Ferris and another pitcher. For Alonso, it isn’t enough. I’m sure there are teams that would be more interested than that.
Thanks, Gus. My thought is that it is very hard to find a #1 pitcher if you don’t pick very early in the draft. If Alonso wants a long-term contract, it won’t age well as Brian demonstrated a while back. We have a good number of hitting prospects rising through the ranks, but most of our pitchers are estimated to be # 4 or 5s in a rotation. I would like the Mets to get back Crow-Armstrong, but I didn’t think it likely that the Cubs would part with him and Horton. I also wondered how much Chicago would give to get a potentially one-year rental. Who would you ask for if you were willing to consider a trade headlining Alonzo and Horton?
James, that’s a good question. Hard to know how badly the other teams wants a player. Tim Britton in The Athletic did this exercise using Paul Goldschmidt’s trade from Arizona to St. Louis, and the return was a top 50 prospect, and top 75 prospect and a low minors prospect. But, look at what the Yankees just gave up for a year of Soto: basically most of their pitching pipeline. How much better is Soto than Alonso?
I’d love Horton, Ben Brown (or recently traded Jackson Ferris) and a low minors kid, but the Cubs probably pivoted to the Dodgers because either the Mets weren’t biting or the Mets wanted too big a bite.
I believe that ship has sailed and rather than looking at the Cubs, there are three teams in the AL Central that need Alonso and all have lots of good pitching.
Luke Voit does not deserve first shot at 1B if Alonso goes. He’s been terrible this spring, flailing at anything and seldom making contact. And he hasn’t done anything worthwhile at the major league level for a few years now. If they trade Alonso now, then trying Vientos at 1B would be the post-Alonso Plan A. Choi would look like Plan B. And by the time they work through those plans, a dark horse could emerge ahead of Voit (like Luke Ritter). I suspect that the only reason for having Voit at all is that Choi is (I believe) automatically entitled to a series of opt-outs.
My suggestion about Voit was based on how well he hit in AAA last year and a recent article that said his health was the cause of his decline and that he had his health back. He was a great hitter not all that long ago.
Luke Voit? Would he bat fourth or fifth?
I’m disappointed that neither Baty or Vientos came out on fire this spring. I don’t want to say that I have given up, but when a player “has something to prove” and they aren’t even lighting up spring training, hmmmm. I still have more hope for Vientos than Baty…
This from Tim Britton today in The Athletic speculating on Francisco Alvarez’s extension value based on comps and present day values:
Controlled through 2028
Last year’s projection: N/A
Alvarez showed flashes of superstar potential during his rookie season as a 21-year-old, hitting home runs in bunches and improving defensively much like Contreras. This spring represents a chance for the Mets to get in on the ground floor if they believe Alvarez is on the verge of a larger breakout. He’s already ahead of where Keibert Ruiz was when Ruiz signed his extension with the Nationals last spring.
PLAYER SIGNED AGES FWAR(1) FWAR(3) YEARS TOTAL TODAY AAV
Francisco Alvarez
2024
22
2.7
2.7
Keibert Ruiz
2023
24-31
1.7
2.2
8
50.0
6.3
Alvarez is also slated to hit free agency entering his age-27 season, meaning the free-agent years an extension buys out could all be prime years. (Rutschman and Contreras will hit free agency three years older.) Let’s estimate Alvarez’s arbitration earnings at about $26 million and buy out his free-agent years at $22 million each for three years, with a club option for an additional year at $25 million ($4 million buyout).
Extension projection: Eight years, $96 million
———————
How fast can we draw up the contract?
I agree, Britton’s estimates are low. Maybe very low. I’m not a believer in extensions this early on, and I love what we’ve seen of Alvarez thus far. That said, young players do sometimes regress in Year Two. The league figures them out and exposes a weakness. Can he player continue to make adjustments as that process goes on and gets more sophisticated? I believe Alvarez can. But I think its more prudent to wait another year or two to have a better or more precise handle on what he is, even if that winds up costing more than extending him now.
The issue with extending Alvarez right now is the potential impact on getting below the luxury tax threshold. Yeah, yeah – I know – Cohen’s rich and he can afford it.
But the whole point of this offseason was to maintain as much payroll flexibility for 2025 and 2026 as possible. And an extension now would push the AAV onto this year’s payroll, with the 110% tax. The Britton deal would mean an AAV of $12 million, which would be $25.2 million with the tax.
And that $12 million would be significantly above the pre-arb salary he would get in 2025, too. That’s an extra $11 million in a year where you’re at least trying to get under the draft-pick penalty, if not all luxury tax thresholds.
Agreed. And there’s also the other payroll wind card in Verlander’s vesting option for 2025 if he pitches at least 140 innings this year. If he vests, the Mets are on the hook for $17.5 million of that. Now is simply not the time to be adding more money to future payrolls.
MLBTR reports that the Giants are waiving J.D. Davis
Yes, I’ve been watching that one. I strongly feel that Baty needs to go down to AAA for two solid months. He is simply too overmatched at this level right now to learn how to make adjustments here. Davis is not a savior. but he is an upgrade. If Stearns is for real about always looking for ways to improve the roster, here’s one that has absolutely zero cost attached to it.
In his career, JD Davis doesn’t have platoon spits. They are even and he has a .775 career OPS.
Baty and Vientos have continued their 2023 seasons. Vientos has improved better than Baty.
Stewart has a .754 career OPS and .784 career OPS vs RHP. He isn’t having a good spring.
JD Davis, with a minimum salary, would be an inexpensive upgrade. Baty should be sent down to Syracuse.