In the offseason before 2023, Brett Baty rocketed up prospect lists, finishing as high as No. 17 with Baseball Prospectus’ ranking. This caused some fans to want him to take over as the Mets’ starting third baseman. Then he had a very good Grapefruit League season, which caused even more fans to jump on the Baty bandwagon. And then he hit the cover off the ball in Triple-A, which caused the Mets to promote him at the end of April.
File this under, be careful what you wish for, as Baty proceeded to stink up the joint. And it’s not like he didn’t get a fair shake, as he amassed 386 PA in the majors last year. So, how do you reconcile Baty’s strong minor league production – from rookie league to Triple-A – with his dismal rookie season, one where he was comfortably below The Galvis Line with a 65 OPS+? Here’s how the computer model forecast Baty for 2024:
ATC – 428 PA, .238/.310/.380, 12 HR
Marcel – 399 PA, .231/.298/.376, 12 HR
Steamer – 406 PA, .247/.320/.419, 15 HR
THE BAT – 428 PA, .235/.304/.366, 11 HR
ZiPS – 509 PA, .245/.317/.395, 17 HR
That’s more of a consensus than my expectation coming into this piece. It’s not unusual for the models to differ on a young player and my thought was that the polar opposites of his minor league production and his major league output would add to the confusion. Instead, they all see him being a below-average player. Some have made the comparison to Bryson Stott, who rebounded from a poor year as a rookie in 2022 to post a 3.9 fWAR last year. The highest total among our projections for Baty is a 1.7 fWAR by ZiPS.
This time last year, fans and analysts alike were raving about Baty’s picture-perfect swing. It may look pretty but the results simply weren’t there. And my subjective view is it wasn’t a case of pitchers exploiting one area of the strike zone or having one specific pitch that gave him fits. Rather, Baty seemed to have multiple holes in his swing. And the Pitch Values section on FanGraphs show him in negative numbers against fastballs, sliders, cutters, curves and change ups. Ouch.
When there are this many issues to deal with, it’s tough to imagine an easy fix. It’s not unreasonable to suggest that Baty get at least 200 consecutive ABs in Triple-A to start 2024. He has just 147 PA at that level and those were spread among three distinct periods. My overwhelming preference is to give players from the farm system a shot. But Baty got a shot last year and fell on his face.
The Mets did not add a starting-caliber third baseman in the offseason. And David Stearns said that young players need a shot. Those two things indicate the Mets are planning to go with Baty in the majors at the start of the season. Most times it would make me very happy to hear this. My hope is that Baty takes this chance and runs with it. But a demotion to the minors at some point this season seems almost inevitable. My totally biased forecast for Baty is:
325 PA, .239/.305/.367, 9 HR
375 PA, .220/.285/.320, 13 HR
I really hope that he pulls a Stott, but I am very wary.
Oh boy,a lot is riding on Baty,Vientos and MeGill. Last season Baty was likely the one most expected to succeed. Here’s the question,how many of the three make it this year.
I’m thinking Megill is good this year, with the new pitch and better control. I’m OK with Vientos, who has shown some good power. I’m most worried about Baty, but hope I’m wrong to be pessimistic about him.
I don’t see that much riding on Megill. If he stumbles, Lucchesi and Butto represent alternatives, possibly even better alternatives to Megill. And if or by the time they stumble, one of the prospects might be ready for a shot.
If Baty stumbles, there does not seem to be much of a contingency plan.
Last year, I projected, in the Escobar projection, that Baty would be the Mets third baseman before the end of the season. In the Deep Dive article, I projected Baty to have a carreer that is better than Escobar’s carreer. Escobar has a carreer average of 253/305/430/735 with 19 HR and an 98 OPS+. Escobar was an average MLB player. I hope that Baty and Vientos will platoon at third baseman this year. (Vientos later projection will also include DH position). I hope that Baty can attain an average like Escobar and be an average MLB player this year.
467 PA 253/304/430 12 HR
I think what we get from Baty at the plate is a bonus if he can simply field his position. That was a significant part of his failure at third since we held our breath with each ball hit his way. Still think a hundred practice balls hit to him each day would/should make him a better fielder. There is plenty of offense on this team that we can hit him near the end of the order. I’m looking for .259 average and 18 HRs if he can simply make the routine plays at third and stay in the lineup. If he fails it seems likely to move in one of the extra backups picked up because they are good fielders to solidify the left side of the diamond. Vientos should be taking 100 grounders at third as well to improve his D.
Let the games begin.
“Still think a hundred practice balls hit to him each day would/should make him a better fielder.”
I said that a million times about Wilmer Flores, but you can’t teach desire. If a player isn’t interested in being the best he can be, then he won’t be. Flores is in San Francisco now and the fans love him. Plus, at first base he has a .863 OPS, so while not fireworks and bottle rockets, it gets him by. Now, imagine him busting his ass to become a better third baseman. How much better is a third baseman with a .863 OPS?
Baty has looked credible in the field thus far this spring. He’s comfortable, his movement seems more fluid and natural, and he’s making all of the routine plays.
That said, the game changes in Weeks 3 & 4 of ST. MLB players, and those close to making the roster get more of the playing time. They hit the ball harder more often, and the game speeds up.
Unfortunately, his hitting has been non-existent. He’s behind on nearly every swing he takes, and is making very, little contact. And when he does, its usually weak.
Baty:
.270/.325/.415
While not eye popping, I realize that this player needs to have a major step up just to be average this year, and I hope he does. That can give him some success and confidence, and build a fire inside of him to keep going up.
Its not looking that way so far this spring. I believe that Baty is simply not one of those star talents who makes a big jump. He’s going to take two or three years to build his way up to a solid starter.