Mets pitchers off to strong start in Grapefruit League action

FanGraphs shows the Mets with a projected 80-82 record, with a run differential of -6. It has the Mets with a middle-of-the-pack offense, with their 4.66 runs per game being in a three-way tie for 15th in the majors. Their runs allowed is a bit worse, as their 4.70 runs per game ranking 20th in MLB. But what if their pitching isn’t quite that bad?

Guess which team has the lowest ERA this Spring? That’s right, the Mets lead the way with a 2.69 ERA. Yes, we all know, Spring Training stats don’t mean anything. On top of that, ERA is especially loaded, as the Florida teams typically score fewer runs than the Arizona teams, which are played in a much more hitter-friendly environment. But we can also look at a stat that puts the teams in different states on a more-equal footing: K/BB ratio. Here, the Mets are tied for third, with the two teams above them playing in Arizona.

Of course, another thing we have to consider is that the team totals are comprised of guys who will go north when the season starts plus those who will stay behind in Florida until their minor league season starts. It’s great that Nate Lavender has 7 Ks and 0 BB. But odds are against him making the Opening Day roster. So, let’s examine the pitchers likely to go north with the club, looking first at the rotation:

13 Ks, 2 BB: Tylor Megill
8 K’s, 3 BB: Sean Manaea
7 Ks, 3 BB: Jose Quintana
5 Ks, 0 BB: Luis Severino
3 Ks, 1 BB: Adrian Houser

That’s 36 Ks and 9 BB for a 4.0 K/BB ratio, better than the overall team mark of 3.11 that’s tied for third. Now, we can’t compare this number to regular-season totals in the category. But the Mets’ impressive output so far in Grapefruit League games isn’t solely due to minor league players. The SP are doing quite well, too. Now, most of the work is being done by Megill and Severino. And that’s okay. There are plenty of questions around those two hurlers, so it’s nice to see them both getting off to good starts.

For what it’s worth, both Manaea and Quintana had strong second outings. Manaea had 5 Ks in 4 IP on Saturday, while Quintana had 6 Ks in 3 IP in his last outing on Thursday. And it’s not just strikeouts, as those two combined to allow just one unearned run in those two games.

Now let’s look at the relievers:

2 Ks, 0 BB: Brooks Raley
1 K, 1 BB: Jorge Lopez
1 K, 1 BB: Adam Ottavino
1 K, 1 BB: Drew Smith
0 K, 0 BB: Jake Diekman
7 Ks, 1 BB: Sean Reid-Foley
2Ks, 0 BB: Yohan Ramirez
0 K, 0 BB: Shintaro Fujinami

That’s 14 Ks and 4 BB. That’s a 3.5 ratio, again better than the overall team mark. Of course, Edwin Diaz has yet to make his Spring debut. But few doubt that Diaz won’t be a major contributor in the Ks department. Most believe that the last two spots in the bullpen are up for grabs and the above includes three pitchers who are likely among the front runners for those spots.

And while we focused on the K/BB ratios above, those 5 SP have combined for 28 IP and 9 ER for a 2.89 ERA and the 8 RP notched 17 IP and 2 ER for a 1.06 ERA. Combine the two groups and you get 45 IP and 11 ER for a 2.20 ERA, again better than the 2.69 overall team mark.

Just to make things crystal clear, we shouldn’t overreact to the results from 45 IP in Spring Training. It’s conventional wisdom that pitchers are ahead of hitters at this point of the calendar year. Yet we can acknowledge the shortcomings of the stats posted so far – ya know, Spring Training stats don’t matter – and still be encouraged by what the pitchers have produced to date in Florida.

It’s a small enough sample that if Houser gets lit up in his appearance later today then the numbers change significantly. The flip side of that is we’ve had 10 games from these five starters, and 13 overall for the relievers for one outing to skew the results in a bad way and it hasn’t happened. Most people want to see good results, even in these meaningless Spring Training games. And the Mets’ pitchers have done that so far in Florida.

ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle pointed out earlier this week that there were only two teams in the majors last year that had seven hitters qualify for the batting title and three pitchers qualify for the ERA title. And, of course, those were the Braves and Phillies. But imagine that the Mets have three pitchers healthy enough to fit that bill in 2024. It’s unlikely Kodai Senga will be one of those, as he’s likely to miss a month (or more) of the season.

But imagine if any three of the remaining Mets SP are healthy enough – and good enough – to pitch 162 innings. To qualify for the ERA title, you need to pitch one inning per team game played. Now, there’s been talk dating back to at least 2018 to lower the IP threshold to qualify, but that won’t happen for the 2024 season.

Neither Houser nor Megill has ever thrown that many innings in a season in the majors. The remaining three hurlers have done it a combined 11 times, with eight of those by Quintana. In those 11 seasons where they pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, 10 times they posted fWARs of 3.3 or above, including seven times where they reached a 4.0 mark.

The questions around the Mets’ rotation are legitimate and are made even more worrisome given the injury to Senga. But the pitchers on the team have shown the ability to pitch well when they’re healthy. And for the love of all things holy, the Mets are due for some good luck in the pitching-health department.

And while it’s incredibly early in the “meaningless” Spring Training schedule, the Mets’ SP are showing encouraging signs. And the relievers aren’t doing too shabby, either. If you want a reason to believe that the Mets can exceed that 80-82 FG projection, you need to focus on the upside of the rotation and the depth of the bullpen.