A stone is a unit of mass of 14 pounds. If we can borrow this unit of measurement for weight and apply it to years, this blog has been around for a stone. And in that stone’s lifespan, this blog has consistently called for the Mets to give real shots to young guys from their farm system. And David Stearns has come to town and essentially said that young guys need a shot. Hallelujah!
Stearns also is on record that the 2024 Mets are a competitive team. And it’s a fair question to ask how to balance giving young players a legitimate shot versus trying to win enough games to make the playoffs as a Wild Card entrant. It’s a lot easier to give a young guy 100 or more PA on a team going nowhere than it is for a team aiming at 85 or more wins.
Here’s how the Mets did last year in giving playing time to youngsters and how those players performed:
423 PA – Francisco Alvarez, 95 OPS+
389 PA – Brett Baty, 65 OPS+
233 PA – Mark Vientos, 69 OPS+
108 PA – Ronny Mauricio, 77 OPS+
Just because that’s what these players did a season ago doesn’t mean that they are destined to perform similarly here in 2024. We all expect the three healthy players above to put up better numbers this year. But how much better?
The Mets are committed to playing both Baty and Vientos this year. On one hand, that’s a very necessary thing for the club to do, to find out if they can be useful parts for the rest of the decade or if they need to replace them. On the other hand, it’s a possibility in that giving those players a legitimate shot that the club will spend 1,000 PA on below-average offensive production on a DH and a third baseman with a sub-par glove.
Ultimately, it comes down to two factors: First, are Baty and Vientos the right players to invest the playing time? And second, is this the right time to invest the playing time?
Before we dive into those factors, let’s take a second to see how the Mets came to give playing time last year to the Baby Mets. With Alvarez, an injury in April led to his promotion and by the time the starter was healthy, Alvarez had shown enough to stick around. With Baty, the starter got off to a terrible start and he got an early promotion. And then they traded the Opening Day starter, leaving them with few options but to give Baty playing time. Vientos was on the shuttle between Triple-A and the majors. Mauricio didn’t get promoted until the end of the year, when the team had no playoff aspirations left.
This year, the Mets seem committed to Baty as the starter at third base, with Vientos getting plenty of time at DH, along with backing up at the corner infield spots. Now we have to ask what the appropriate amount of playing time to give them to show they belong starting in the majors. Hopefully, it’s more than the 53 PA the Mets gave Eduardo Escobar last year before Baty’s promotion. And on the other side, hopefully, it’s fewer than the 389 PA that Baty received a season ago.
Now for the two factors mentioned earlier.
It seems to me that Baty and Vientos are the right players to invest the playing time. Both players are young, were former high draft picks and were successful minor league players. They check all of the boxes. The other question is a little tougher to answer.
One of the keys to a successful offense is to limit the number of dead spots in the lineup. We hope the Mets get solid or better offense from C, 1B, 2B, SS and LF. That leaves four spots as question marks, including the two that would be manned by Baty and Vientos. Further complicating things is that three of the four question marks are spots that are usually thought of as offensive positions. Can the Mets handle sub-par production from 3B, RF and DH?
In 2022, the Mets had three sinkholes in the lineup most of the year, as their production from C, 3B and DH left a lot to be desired. But production from DH improved after the trade deadline and production from 3B took off in September, as Escobar had a great hot streak.
But the Mets were able to survive three sinkholes in the lineup thanks to career years from Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo and Taijuan Walker, along with near-career years from Chris Bassitt and Edwin Diaz. What are the chances the 2024 Mets get top of the line production from five guys? And the 2022 squad also got very good seasons, if not career years, from half a dozen other players, too.
It’s my opinion that the way to a playoff spot this year is to raise the floor, not challenge the ceiling, of the 2022 squad. Of course, that’s assuming that part of the goal of this year’s team is to make the playoffs. It’s certainly a possibility that the Mets have just been giving lip service to that particular item.
Talk is cheap and at the end of the day, we judge players and teams not by what they say but rather by what they do. Of course, there are multiple prongs to any season and one thing the 2024 Mets are clearly doing is maintaining payroll flexibility for 2025 and, especially, 2026.
So, can the Mets give Baty and Vientos a shot while also trying to make the playoffs? Furthermore, can they give those two a shot, without committing 1,000 PA to them, and have realistic alternatives if they fall short? And can those realistic alternatives not hinder future payrolls?
Yesterday, the Giants cut ties to J.D. Davis after going to arbitration with him earlier this offseason. It’s a rotten way to treat a guy who posted a 2.2 fWAR for you in 2023 and who has a 1.271 OPS this Spring. May the Giants receive appropriate karma for this move.
The Mets should look to pick up Davis, who would give protection for both Baty and Vientos and would likely be available on a one-year deal. If the Giants kept Davis, he wouldn’t have been a starter because San Francisco signed Matt Chapman to replace him at 3B. He would have been fighting for playing time at DH among several players. Davis’ likely role would have been as a 200-PA reserve.
Would you rather have Davis or DJ Stewart in that role for the Mets? Stewart is the fifth outfielder and partial DH. If and when one of the outfielders need to be replaced, Tyrone Taylor does that. Which configuration is better – Stewart at DH and Vientos at 3B if Baty fails or Davis at 3B and Vientos at DH? My preference is the latter.
My hope is that the Mets follow thru and give a shot to Baty and Vientos this year. Hopefully, they both produce for the club. But, as Steve Cohen famously said last year, hope is not a strategy. The Mets need a backup plan in place and a backup plan consisting of Joey Wendle and Stewart isn’t enough, in my opinion.
The Giants’ weak move with Davis puts the player in a bad spot. Most teams already have their starters in place and it’s unlikely he’ll find a starting job anywhere here in mid-March. What is an unfortunate circumstance for Davis is a lucky break for the Mets. They should sign Davis to be a bench player and fallback option for both Baty and Vientos as they try to thread the needle with three disparate goals here in 2024.
I like the look of your whole thesis here, which balances the reality of the experiment in terms of possession “hopes” with really vetting the recently promoted top prospects. My hope is the whole team focus on only the next game and let the post season handle itself. If they start of hot, which they have done in the past, I hope to god we dont hear the media start talking about October in April. If the team is doing well come the ASG (say 5 over .500), but Baty/Vientos are struggling, then I can see some shopping happening to cement those positions. But I think they both get until at least the ASG, and possibly to the trade deadline, unless the results are so bad that there is a need to send back down if only for the players own protection.
I think it would be smart to bring Davis back as well. He could fill every hole on the diamond from 1-9 if needed!
Thanks Chris!
FWIW, Baty had 234 PA and a .669 OPS at the All-Star break last year. But after hitting great the first two weeks, Baty had a .607 OPS in his last 188 PA before the break. And he had a .494 OPS in 155 PA after the break.
I’m just not inclined to give him 200+ PA before considering replacing him, should he hit like last year.
One thing I didn’t realize until just now is that Baty was decent at home last year and just dreadful on the road. He had a .731 OPS at Citi Field and a .478 mark in road games. Compared to the rest of the league in road games, that split was an OPS+ of 35, while his home split was an OPS+ of 95. It may not mean anything. But it sure stands out.
I was also just thinking they should pick up Davis for cheap.
As usual, Brian, your baseball reasoning is much more detailed, thorough and complete
Thanks for the kind words!
I remember Smith and Davis two seasons ago! What a DH combo I thought. Didn’t work out too well.
Even in that half season with the Mets two years ago, when he supposedly wasn’t good enough, Davis had a 97 OPS+. It would be nice to get that production from Baty ad/or Vientos this season.
JD Davis would be an improvement for the offense at DH and 3B. If is better than Stewart, Baty and Vientos. Plan A is to play Baty and Vientos in 2024. With that thinking, there is no Plan B. There is room for JD Davis for a one year contract. If the Mets really wanted to compete for a playoff position they would sign the other JD for a one year contract and sink or swim at 3B. That would raised the floor significantly.
If Baty fails and Vientos hits then Vientos should play the majority of the time at 3B and not Davis. Vientos could be the 3B for some time in future years because there isn’t a 3B in the minor leagues. Let’s see how he does.
Marte isn’t hitting well either. At least there a Plan B with Tyrone Taylor.
250 PA should be the maximum threshold for the 2023 sinkholes.
Metsense, according to the NY Post, the Mets are into the other JD, and I can’t blame them. Everyone says that spring break numbers are meaningless, but they show me if a player is locked in or not. Alonso has a .300+ BA as he wants a huge year. Megill wants the starters spot and is showing it. Baty and Vientos? I expecting one of the two to come out hot, but I got neither.
I agree with giving a chance to the youngsters and as Stearns said, sometimes more than one chance. But, I also want to see resolve. There is no way I’d give them until the all-star break, and maybe not until Memorial Day. My bets are on Vientos, not Baty, yet.
Late to the comments, but top notch write up as usual.
I also think JD Davis is a good fit – modest cost, good insurance, offers versatility.
April – June….time to see if these kids can be part of the future. Let’s roll!
Thanks for the kind words!
I feel like I need to see something by the end of May from Baty and Vientos. If one or both of them have a .630 OPS riding a 2-20 stretch, I’m not going to be particularly inclined to give them another month…
I don’t think we’re going to see that out of Baty that early. If we’re just evaluating how Baty hits major league pitching at this point, he’d be closing in on a free flight to Syracuse already, IMO. But that’s not where the Mets are. I think the Mets just want to see that he is improving, and I don’t think they’re using OPS as the barometer.
At this point, Baty is so poor at the plate, that ‘improvement’ is going to be measured in little things like is he getting around on the ball any quicker when he swings, is he making better contact than he did a week or two ago, and is he getting the ball off of the ground more often. As long as he shows anything that anyone can cite as ‘improvement’, they’ll keep giving him leash to see if he can continue to improve.
I’m really sour on this entire situation. While Vientos did not look good at 3B, per se, he did look better and less uncomfortable than last year. Yet he’s gotten close to no time there since the 3rd or 4th game of spring. Admittedly, Baty’s has gotten much better in the field. But if he can’t hit, they can’t run him out there every day. And the Mets have given themselves seemingly no contingency for this clearly not-yet-ready Baty.
You can operate that way in Spring Training. Once the games start to count, it becomes a whole lot more difficult to do, especially if you’re serious about competing for a playoff spot.
I didn’t say thats what I want to do. I just think that is how the Mets will do it. Your last phrase is the key. It remains to be seen just how serious they really are.
Also: their answer to a Baty start that is slow, yet still shows some improvement could be in splitting his time with someone else. I don’t like the options they’ve given themselves.
Maybe I should be encouraged by the fact that they finally gave another 3B start to Vientos (who is swinging the bat well, lately)??
And there it is: if Vientos is hitting adequately, and Baty is fielding adequately, perhaps that’s just enough for them to equivocate that this plan is worth following all the way through.
Don’t misunderstand me. I’m downright sour on Baty. I think he should start the season in AAA. I don’t think he’s had enough time there. And I think he is simply too overmatched by MLB pitching to grow and make improvements at this level. He’s going to have to learn in AAA, then come back up and try to apply it. And its probably going to take a few back-and-forth before he becomes a legit big league every day player.
But this is the hand Stearns has dealt, and he seems to want to play it, rather than fold. I hope I’m wrong about that. He did say in one interview before ST that Baty could be sent down if they fell that it is best for his development, and the team.
Vientos was originally going to play 1B last night but Baty was a late scratch so Vientos played 3B and Choi came in at 1B.