Mets 2024 projections: Harrison Bader

One of the goals for David Stearns was to improve the Mets’ defense. And there are few center fielders in the game better than Harrison Bader when it comes to defense. Signing Bader allows the Mets to move Brandon Nimmo to left field. If Starling Marte returns to form, that gives the Mets a strong defensive outfield in all three spots.

Of course, defense is only part of the equation. As the Mets learned with Juan Lagares, it’s not a lot of fun to watch four lousy ABs day after day after day. And to make matters worse, Bader has had injury problems, too. He’s failed to reach 100 games played in either of the past two seasons and he’s reached that mark just three times since making the majors in 2017. So, what do we make of his great glove, his unimpressive bat and his injury risk? Here’s what the computer models project:

ATC – 410 PA, .244/.297/.387, 11 HR
Marcel – 403 PA, .249/.301/.392, 11 HR
Steamer – 410 PA, .245/.301/.400. 12 HR
THE BAT – 410 PA, .239/.295/.380, 11 HR
ZiPS – 381 PA, .254/.312/.401, 10 HR

Of course, none of the above numbers consider defense. If we look at fWAR, which includes defense, we see that ZiPS – despite having the least amount of playing time – has the highest fWAR with a 2.4 mark. Steamer is next with a 1.6, while ATC and THE BAT check in with marks of 1.3 and 1.1, respectively. Bader signed for $10.5 million, which means if he produces like ATC and THE BAT forecast, he’ll essentially be worth his contract. If he delivers like Steamer and ZiPS project, he’ll be a bargain.

At the end of the day, front offices should be aiming to win games, not win the dollar/WAR calculation. Now, frequently how you do the former is to do the latter. It’s just that in this particular case, adding Bader doesn’t feel overly productive to me. Perhaps the Lagares experience is just too fresh in my mind. My fear is that everything needs to go right for the Bader signing to work out. Let’s use Lagares to illustrate:

In 2014, everything went right and in 452 PA, Lagares posted a 2.9 fWAR
In 2015, not everything did and in 465 PA, Lagares posted a 0.6 fWAR

With Lagares, “everything” essentially boiled down to his BABIP. He had a .341 mark in the category in ’14 and a .308 mark in ’15. To be fair, his defense wasn’t quite as good in the latter season, also contributing to his fWAR decline. Defense is a young man’s game and Lagares saw the beginning of his defensive decline in ’15 at age 25. Bader will be in his age-30 season in 2024.

Because of his lack of games the last few seasons, let’s use UZR/150 to look at Bader’s defense on a per 150 games standard. In his age-24 and age-25 seasons in 2018 and 2019, Bader posted UZR/150 marks of 20.1 and 21.8, respectively. He fell off considerably in the Covid-shortened 2020, but let’s ignore that to give him the benefit of the doubt. In 2021, his mark was 15.1 and the next year it fell to 11.0 and in 2023, his UZR/150 dropped to an 8.5 mark.

To state the obvious, an 8.5 UZR/150 is a really good mark. It’s just that it’s fewer than half of the numbers Bader put up when he was younger.

Still, what’s most troublesome is not Bader’s defensive decline, it’s what he can reasonably be expected to give you at the plate. The computer models see someone putting up an OPS between .675 and .713, with three of the five systems seeing a sub-.700 OPS. Last year, Eduardo Escobar had a .695 OPS for the Mets and that translated to an 89 OPS+. In 319 PA last year, Bader had a 69 OPS+.

Bader’s trouble comes versus RHP. Lifetime he has just a .667 OPS against righties. In the past two seasons, a span with 502 PA, Bader has a .233/.267/.320 line against RHP. And for what it’s worth, he’s 1-7 with a .393 OPS against righties so far in Grapefruit League play.

By all accounts, the Mets are going to enter the season considering Bader as a full-time player. But even if he stays healthy, it’s hard for me to imagine that he isn’t busted to a platoon role at some point this year. The Mets are at least giving lip service to the idea of contending for a Wild Card in ’24. It’s just hard for me to wrap my head around the idea of contending while playing a guy who’s sub-Plaweckian versus RHP.

My totally biased forecast for Bader this season: 348 PA, .228/.276/.304, 4 HR