Mets 2024 projections: Adrian Houser

In 2021, Adrian Houser was very good, with a 3.22 ERA in a career-high in 142.1 IP. But he really out-pitched his peripherals, as he had a 4.33 FIP that season. In the past two years, Houser has combined for 214 IP and a 4.42 ERA. That’s a 95 ERA+ and if somehow Houser could put that together here in 2024, the Mets would probably by very happy.

But the problem is that there’s virtually zero chance that Houser could sniff 200 innings, much less exceed that total. He’s a 4-5 IP starter who should do a good job of keeping the Mets from having to go to their pen in the first three innings. There’s some value to that. But the Mets should be hoping for more. Here’s what the computer models forecast for Houser this season:

ATC – 123 IP, 4.52 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6.66 K/9, 1.11 HR/9
Marcel – 123 IP, 4.24 ERA, 1.382 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
Steamer – 130 IP, 4.66 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 6.58 K/9, 1.21 HR/9
THE BAT – 123 IP, 4.65 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 6.33 K/9, 1.11 HR/9
ZiPS – 111.1 IP, 4.65 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.39 K/9, 1.05 HR/9

There’s some variance in ERA but essentially the models are in lock step with Houser’s output this season, which is pretty much what you expect with a veteran. Steamer, which had the most IP, projected Houser to appear in 24 games, with all of them as starts. That’s a shade over 5.1 IP per start. And that’s the most optimistic forecast.

But we’re in the “five and fly” era of starting pitching. What used to be a put down is now the expectation, certainly for back-end starters. But with four of the five models projecting an ERA north of 4.50 – we again have to ask is if this is enough.

Previously, I made the comparison to Rich Hill, who the Mets acquired in mid-2021 because they didn’t have a SP who could give them that. It was better to get 4 IP from Hill than having to go to a bullpen game every fifth day. Hill made 12 starts for the Mets in ’21 and in 60.1 IP, he had a 3.58 ERA. That’s virtually the same five-and-change innings per start that Steamer forecasts for Houser. But, with an ERA a full run better.

The Mets made no effort to bring Hill back in 2022.

A reasonable question to ask is if the 2024 Mets need this type of pitcher. Houser was acquired in December, about three weeks before the club added Sean Manaea. At the time of the trade, you could make the case that the Mets needed Houser. But the Manaea addition simply changed the equation.

The Mets proved in ’21 that you can trade for this type of pitcher, should you need one. My hope is that same other team has that void in their rotation and the Mets are able to flip Houser by mid-July, like the Rays did with Hill. By that time, the hope is that Joey Lucchesi has built back arm strength and that David Peterson is back from injury.

And who knows, perhaps Mike Vasil or some other pitcher in the high minors has shown enough to earn a promotion to the depth starter category, giving the Mets the confidence to permanently promote Jose Butto and move on from Houser. Because here in the third week of March, it seems clear to me that Butto is the better pitcher.

My totally biased forecast: 63 IP, 4.57 ERA, 1.450 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9