After an All-Star season in 2022, Starling Marte was nowhere close to that status in 2023, thanks in large part to double groin surgery he had in November of ’22. Marte tried to play thru the pain and discomfort but was just a shadow of himself, both at the plate and in the field. Oddly, the area he had the most success with last year was in steals, as he swiped 24 bags in 28 attempts.
Marte was healthy enough to play 11 games during the playoffs this offseason in the Dominican Winter League. After returning to the field, Marte declared his legs healthy. It’s great that he feels his body is ready for action. But Marte hasn’t reached 600 PA in a season since 2018. And now ready to embark on his age-35 season, health questions aren’t likely to go away. Here’s the forecasts for him this year from the computer models:
ATC – 486 PA, .261/.321/.393. 11 HR
Marcel – 421 PA, .275/.337/.416, 11 HR
Steamer – 565 PA, .263/.320/.403, 14 HR
THE BAT – 488 PA, .260/.317/.380, 10 HR
ZiPS – 403 PA, .264/.323/.391, 9 HR
The models all agree what type of production we should expect and it’s … not very good. These translate to more or less a league-average hitter. But the problem is that starting corner outfielders are typically much better than league average with the bat. This is essentially what Mark Canha gave the Mets last year. And the club’s response was to first bench him and then they traded him.
But it’s hard to imagine anyone being interested in trading for Marte, who still will be under contract in 2025.
While playing hurt last year, Marte exhibited just terrible swing decisions. Some speculated that he was pitch guessing. But to me, it looked like he made up his mind to swing before the pitch was delivered and executed that plan, regardless of how far from the strike zone the pitch was. Will being healthy help rectify what we saw a year ago? Essentially, that’s the only hope fans have for a rebound. And Steve Cohen told us that hope isn’t a strategy.
Marte wasn’t good in the playoffs in 2022. He wasn’t good in the regular season in 2023. And he has a .427 OPS in 49 PA in Grapefruit League action this year. The only saving grace for Marte right now is that the Mets don’t have anyone to take his place. He’s going to get playing time early on whether he deserves it or not.
Perhaps the only reason to be optimistic about Marte is that he’s always run elevated BABIP marks. It’s possible he could post a .333 BABIP and with his speed, he could still be a league-average player with the hits falling in. But if the BABIP gods don’t smile on him, we’re left with declining OBPs and a microscopic ISO.
In 2021, Marter had a .383 OBP, which fell to a .347 mark his first season with the Mets and then .301 last year. His .208 ISO in 2019 fell to an .076 mark in 2023. And while most view Spring Training stats as meaningless, Marte has just an .024 ISO in Florida.
In 976 PA in the majors, Tyrone Taylor has a .212 ISO. The most optimistic computer forecast has Marte with a .141 ISO. How long will the Mets give Marte to prove he isn’t finished as an MLB starter? It may depend on how well Harrison Bader performs. Taylor can only spell one of them at a time. While Marte begins the year as a starter, it seems unlikely to me he ends the year in that role.
My totally biased forecast for Marte: 325 PA, .249/.305/.367, 7 HR
Gone before June hitting under .200 with maybe 1 homer.
Apparently the writing is on the wall with Marte. I hope he rebound to at least an average player. The odds aren’t good to expect that. If Marte does tank then Taylor, a slightly above average player, can replace him. The problem with that strategy is that Taylor should his at bats when the Mets are facing a RHP and they substitute Taylor for Bader. The Mets will be one average outfielder short. I hope he isn’t toast and rebounds to be an average player because the Mets can’t afford another hole in their lineup if the are going to make the playoffs.
428 PA 275/333/394 10 HR
400 PA, .267/.330/.400, 14 HR
The major problem with the computer models for Marte is they accept the numbers at face value. They don’t factor in that he was hurt. That, in effect, those numbers don’t matter, don’t represent a healthy Marte.
It’s like a pitcher who gets shelled for two months before going on the DL. Those numbers don’t matter . . . except to a computer . . . or someone who is unwilling to consider more than just numbers.
I think Starling Marte is a wonderful player with great tools who was hurt all last season. However, he’s 35 years old and he’s lost a full year. He’s in decline.
I also think he’s quietly proud and determined. If the body holds up, there’s reason to hope. However, yeah, these steroid guys have a tendency to break down.
I see an OPS of .750 — say, .260/.340/.410 with 40 SBs.
In 2022 Marte hit .292 with an .814
OPS 16 HR, 63 RBI and 18 stolen bags. Yes he is a year older and had a crappy spring, but if he is in fact healthy, there’s no reason why he can’t return back to his former productivity, or some facsimile thereof.
Even injured last year he stole 28 bags. The Mets desperately need both his offense and right field defense.
400 PA, .270/.330/.380 12 HR. 30SB