A look at the Mets’ offense in the last 11 games, which has led to eight wins

All during the offseason, we heard management say that the 2024 Mets would be in contention for a Wild Card spot. With an offseason spent more focused on short-term deals and future flexibility, that talk seemed optimistic. Yet three weeks into the season, that’s essentially what’s been accomplished. While if the playoffs started today, the Mets would be on the outside, they have the eighth-best record in the National League while the top seven make the playoffs. That would have to meet anyone’s definition of competing for a playoff spot.

And how have the Mets done it? We start with a rotation that’s been solid on quality, if lacking in quantity. Then we follow up with a pen that’s been both better and deeper than expected. And we finish up with an offense that’s somehow been productive with very few players actually being good.

When we look at the season-long numbers, we have DJ Stewart with a 164 OPS+, Pete Alonso with a 154 mark and Tyrone Taylor with a 139. And everyone else is essentially average or worse, including Francisco Lindor, with a 36. Complicating things even more – in terms of trying to make sense of the offense – is that Taylor and Stewart rank ninth and 10th in PA, while Lindor has the most, with 39 more than Taylor and 51 more PA than Stewart.

When we look at things on a game-by-game basis, rather than overall as individuals, we see the Mets scored three runs or fewer in six of their first seven games. Since then, they’ve scored five runs or more in eight of their last 11 tilts. It’s like a switch has been thrown and the bats have magically come to life.

In that opening stretch of play, the Mets’ first seven games of the season, although other teams played more, the team was last with a .536 OPS and last with a 62 wRC+ among all 30 teams in MLB. By contrast, the Braves led the way with an .881 OPS, while the Rangers were tops with a 144 wRC+, which was two points ahead of Atlanta

But since the Mets broke out with six runs against the Reds on April 6, the offense has surged up the ranks. From 4/6-4/18, the Mets have an .814 OPS, which ranks second to the Braves’ .819 total. And their 132 wRC+ is also second in that span, two points behind the Yankees.

Which again leads us to the question – How are the Mets doing this?

And there’s no easy answer. It’s not like they’re leading the league in HR, BB and SB. They are above average in just about every category you can imagine. The one that they lead the majors in is K%, with their 16.9 rate being the best in baseball. Combine that with a .331 BABIP (fourth best) and the Mets are doing an excellent job of making contact and having their hits find holes.

It’s been incredibly fun to watch. But it’s an open question of how much longer it can go on. One of the few categories that the Mets are below average in offensively is Hard Hit%, where their 25.5 rate ranks 28th in the majors. Yet somehow this hasn’t kept the club from being solid in doubles (tied for seventh) and home runs (tied for sixth) in this span.

So, we have a case of an elevated BABIP, while seemingly maximizing the few times that a ball is hit hard with their XBH totals.

The cliché is that you’re never as good or as bad as you look in your best and worst moments. It’s something that people say in an attempt to make themselves look smart, without offering very much in the way of substance. Wow, Sherlock, when you have your best moments – that will be better than the average moments? Is that so? Remarkable! Thanks for those pearls of wisdom.

The Mets have won 10 of their last 13 games. A .769 winning percentage over 13 games is going to be tough to beat. Clearly, we’re looking at one of the best – if not the best – streaks of the season. No one in their right mind expects it to continue.

Still, it’s possible to exhibit trends in your best ball of the season that can transfer over to the rest of the year, even if not to the same degree as previously. If you hit 40 HR or stole 40 bases over your previous 13 games and that was playing a big role in your success, you could expect to be good at power or good at steals without necessarily hitting that many bombs or swiping that many bags in any other 13-game stretch of the season.

Can the Mets continue to post elevated BABIPs and sunken K% rates? Sure, that’s possible. But it seems far less likely than continuing to bash homers. The 2023 Mets finished with a .275 BABIP and a 22.0 K%, a far cry from the .331 and 16.9 rates they’ve put up in those respective categories here in their last 11 games.

And while the way they’ve won games here recently most likely isn’t sustainable, there are ways they can come back to earth in the categories that are propelling the Mets to victory now and still play better than .500 ball the rest of the way. This 10-8 record was accomplished without anything from Kodai Senga or J.D. Martinez, next to nothing from Lindor and less than what was expected from Francisco Alvarez and Brandon Nimmo

Should we feel better about the Mets’ chances to make the playoffs based on what we’ve seen to date, whether viewed thru the lens of all 18 games or some sub-section of that total? Depends on what you thought going into the season. My opinion is that a playoff berth seems more likely now than it did before the first game was played, even if that means it’s still more likely to fall short than to make the postseason. FanGraphs has the Mets’ playoff odds now at 39.2%, after opening the season with a 29.9% of making it to the postseason.

My opinion would have been less than one in five chance to make the playoffs before the season started, with it now being better than one in four. Progress!