Preseason predictions largely estimated the New York Mets would be a near .500 ball club. A little better if the pitching staff performed slightly better than a median forecast, but also a little worse if the rotation performed a bit more poorly. The Mets are currently 14-13 and performing about as expected. The Mets Pythagorean record is about the same, so luck isn’t playing a significant role yet.
A few days ago, Brian Joura noted Brett Baty’s window for demonstrating he should stay on the field is closing. I would suggest Adrian Houser’s has passed. Houser was always going to be something of a reclamation project, but his peripherals are possibly worse than his results. When Houser came into the league, his sinker was hitting 94 mph. This was above the league average. Even back then, Houser has always had less than good off-speed pitches. Whether he tips those, or they lack sufficient movement, or are too recognizable for hitters, Houser must rely on a good sinker, and the loss of velocity has rendered that pitch ineffective. Houser is clearly lacking late movement as batters are squaring up on his pitches, and he has never had the breaking pitches to change the batter’s approach. You can view all of Houser’s splits and movement here.
It is possible his reduced velocity is related to an injury, otherwise the Mets analytics team should have noticed in Spring Training. At a minimum, Houser must be removed from the rotation, presuming the Mets, at this stage in the season still intend to compete. Because Houser is going to pitch poorly for a while.
The rest of the pitching staff have performed mostly better than expected. Luis Severino has started out very well. Jose Butto and Sean Manaea have pitched better than their projections so far. Jose Quintana has not had the best peripherals, and his ERA is worse than average.
The bullpen has been excellent, and after a few early season stumbles, manager Carlos Mendoza has been better managing his relievers. He has used Edwin Diaz more, and Diaz has been outstanding. Reed Garrett has definitely changed his approach – he has a good fastball, and that has been his primary pitch until later in 2023, and this year, Garrett has moved to sliders and sweepers, relegating his four-seam fastball and his sinker to his bottom two pitches. Having Diaz back with a good supporting staff could really make a difference between the Mets forecasted wins, and their actual wins.
The offense has not been running as smoothly. As Joura noted earlier this week, Starling Marte has rebounded, which can be attributed to being healthy. Harrison Bader is performing as expected. Brandon Nimmo is a little behind his talent level. Given the hole in the corner outfield positions in 2023, this season is starting out much better.
In the infield, the biggest issue the Mets are going to have is the injury to Francisco Alvarez. Alvarez injured his thumb rounding first base and will require surgery that will have him out of action until likely after the All-Star Break. Alvarez is not a great hitter, but he is better than the backups, and that is only a secondary effect. Alvarez is a key component to the pitching staff, so in addition to scoring fewer runs, the Mets are likely to allow more runs over the next three months.
That brings us to the rest of the offense. With Alvarez out, and Bader in the lineup for his defense, the infielders and designated hitter will be critical. Pete Alonso has opened the first month of the season hitting like he wants to get his contract resolved or at least strengthen his bargaining position. That’s not a real skill, but it is nice to see Alonso bounce back.
Joura covered Baty well enough, and Mark Vientos hit a game-winning home run on Sunday against the Cardinals so perhaps that will encourage Mendoza to at least try him out.
Many fans expressed concerns over Francisco Lindor’s first two weeks. Anytime a batter is hitting under .100, there should be a question about what he isn’t seeing at the plate. However, in the last two weeks Lindor has raised his average .100 points and has posted an OPS of 0.859 over those two weeks. If he hits about like that, he will be the top shortstop in the game again.
My pre-season piece noted that Marte and Jeff McNeil needed to bounce back for the Mets to contend for a playoff slot. Marte started out as needed but McNeil has lagged. McNeil’s hitting game absolutely requires a high batting average, as his secondary skills are not strong. Most of his batting run values come from a high average. His walk rate is around league average and his ISO is around 100 points. So, when he hits .270, or worse.240, he is a liability, as he also is slow, and a mediocre fielder. If McNeil doesn’t start hitting .300 or better, the questions Joura asked about Baty must be on the table for McNeil.
One month in, and the Mets are treading water. If they want to make it to the postseason, they’ll need to make moves sooner rather than later.
“Alvarez is not a great hitter”
Can’t disagree more with your statement here. At the age of 22 Francisco Alvarez is at the MLB level. In 2023 he hit 25 home runs in 123 games while hitting well below his historic batting average. In 2024 the power numbers weren’t there yet but he was hitting more consistently, striking and out a little less. His minor league numbers suggest a BA around .250 with considerable power and a solid eye.
In the first 15 games, McNeil had a .613 OPS with a .082 ISO
In the last 11 games, he has a .707 OPS with a .121 ISO
Certainly, the bottom line above isn’t great. But it’s an improvement over how he started the year and it’s not unreasonable to think he can improve it even more going forward. We saw the final 218 PA of 2023 – more than twice his PA so far in 2024 – that McNeil had an .819 OPS with a .168 ISO. And that came with a .307 BABIP, so it’s not simply a case of the hits falling in for him.
The key to McNeil’s success is to pull the ball in the air. Those 4-3 ground outs count as pulling the ball but they’re not what we need to see him do.
According to B-R, this year McNeil has a .500 OPS and a .026 ISO when he hits the ball up the middle and a .600 OPS and a .066 ISO when he goes the opposite way. When he pulls the ball, he’s got a .962 OPS and a .269 ISO.
This isn’t rocket science, as most hitters do better when they pull the ball. But too many people – perhaps even McNeil, himself – think that his value comes from hitting to all fields. His value is turning on pitches that he can, where he has enough power to do damage. He doesn’t have the power to put up good numbers up the middle or the other way. Any time where he has 0 or 1 strike on the count, McNeil should be hunting pitches to drive to RF.
Nice piece. It is all about patience for a team that many predicted wouldn’t even finish at .500. Perhaps the Mets should place Houser on some type of injured list as clearly there is something wrong with him that he can’t pitch better. If that designation leaves room to Lucceshi to come up and show what he can do then I’m all for it.
You can’t win games without scoring runs and some key components of the offense are still far from firing on all cylinders.
This is the downside of having a year where we needed to pick pitchers off of the catch lightning in a bottle group, or picking up fringe players from essentially that same category. They clearly needed to reduce salary since we are not a championship team, and not a few players away from being one. More dollars will come off the payroll before the start of 2025 and I am convinced that Cohen will spend considerable sums in the free agent market.
That being said, I believe it is more than possible to go 74 and 61 the rest of the way to get to my prediction of 88 wins and a playoff spot. Keep the faith.
74-61, you’re not watching the same team ive been watching.
I had high hopes for Houser, but enough is enough. NYM6986 has the solution for the Mets….bring up Lucchesi. Like Vientos, he has nothing more to prove in Syracuse. Does Houser get sent down? Does Baty? For now, I think so. Give them the month of May to sink or swim. Just hope Vientos isn’t a total butcher at 3B and keeps his Ks under 30%. This team needs homers and getting the hits when RISP.
Houser would have to clear waivers first. If he does, he would then be eligible to declare free agency with the Mets still responsible for the bulk of his salary. So if you’re ready to cut ties with him altogether, then go for it.
But consider that Lucchesi is no guarantee to succeed. He’s been using 95 piches or so to get through 5 innings in AAA. If the big league hitters take him deeper into counts, work more walks, and get more hits, he might not make it past 4. And for the moment, there is no real backup if another pitchers gets hurt. Megill should be back by mid-May, Peterson is on track for late May. If Houser is this bad two weeks from now, then cut him.
There might be room for Houser in the pen for now. But that gets tight if/when Raly and Smith both come back in a couple of weeks as expected.
The hybrid plan might be to option a reliever, and piggyback Lucchesi and Houser for three or four innings each.
How about doing this package Alonso,Diaz to a contender for for three good to very good prospects? This breaks the Cohen penalty. Then take a deep breath and sign Soto.
Nice summary Chris. They are basically in the mix for the WC, which is here most of us hoped they were. Some good, some bad. My two cents remains that the hitting will need to step it up, collectively. I see more players in house pitching alternatives as the season progresses. We’ll go as far as this line up takes us.
Taking stock is taking inventory of the players. Is the Mets better than an average team?
Four of five of their starting pitchers are besting their career average ERA. The laggard fifth starter can be replaced by Lucchesi immediately, Megill soon and Senga eventually. The starting pitching is very good.
Of the seven relievers, six of them are besting their career ERA. Diekman is only 0.04 short of his career ERA. The others are shuttling off the on the active roster and they also are pitching good . The relief pitching is excellent.
The hitting is taking them down. Of the 10 starters in April, only three are besting their career OPS; Baty, Stewart and Taylor . Stewart and Taylor are going to have reduced PA because of Martinez. At least there is a solution with Taylor. He can platoon in center field with Bader. As for Baty, he has improved but nowhere near the production of a Major League third baseman. The Mets do have a solution by demoting him and replacing him with Vientos. The hitting is horrible.
If the hitting improves and the pitching likely regresses slightly , then this team should compete for a playoff position. There are solutions for Stearns to give Mendoza the weapons to compete.