The 2023 and 2024 Mets have the same record after 32 games

In 2023, the Mets started out 14-7 but by game 32 they had a 16-16 record. In 2024, the Mets started out 0-5 but by game 32 they had a 16-16 record. It turned out that start last year was the high point of the Mets’ season. Will the stretch the Mets went on to move above .500, the one they went 12=3, turn out to be the high point this year?

While looking at the 2023 start, the thing that jumps out is how well the Mets’ relievers were doing, including the ones who drew so much criticism later, Billy Eppler’s option relievers. Jeff Brigham, Denyi Reyes, Jimmy Yacabonis and Stephen Nogosek combined for 18.1 innings and three runs. The rotation was in shambles, as Jose Quintana and Justin Verlander were on the IL, Carlos Carrasco had an 8.56 ERA and Kodai Senga had two bad outings and had a 4.29 ERA.

The 2023 Mets had six players off to strong starts at the plate. The Mets got off to a fast start because of hitting and relief pitching. The hope was the starting pitching would be better and that there would be a turnaround with the three trouble spots in the lineup. Eventually the starting pitching did get better, although not in time to save the season. Meanwhile, both the offense and bullpen fell off. The offense did recover some the final two months of the season. But the bullpen featured six guys with an ERA over 4.00 once David Robertson was traded. It wasn’t a strength at all.

This year the bullpen is a strength. Is there anything else that would qualify as a strength? The starters have been more good than bad. Now with Christian Scott replacing Adrian Houser, the Mets have fixed the biggest negative. Now the biggest complaint is going deep into games. And the way to do that is to get their walks under control. Only Luis Severino has a BB/9 under 4.0, which is not good. Jose Butto and Sean Manaea have an ERA lower than their FIP. Can they keep that up? Severino does, too, as he’s only given up two homers in 35 innings. We should ask if he can keep that up, too.

The hitting was a disaster at the beginning of the year. Since then, it’s alternated between being very good and very bad. Can we count on it to level out and be a little better than average? That would be nice. The encouraging thing is that the big bats are starting to come alive. In his last 18 games, Francisco Lindor has a .914 OPS. Brandon Nimmo has an .827 OPS in his last 23 games. Even Jeff McNeil is starting to come around. After posting a .427 OPS to open the year, he has a .703 OPS in his last 24 games. It’s still not good but it’s a marked improvement.

Brett Baty had been bad after a decent start only to blast two homers last night. Is that a sign of things to come or an aberration? Harrison Bader has a 4-hit game, the fifth time in eight games with a multi-hit outing. Since then, he’s batting .188 in his last 10 games. Is he the line-drive machine hitter he was earlier in the year? Or is he the out maker he’s been recently? Starling Marte is 1-13 with six strikeouts since returning from the bereavement list. And he was 1-9 the two games before that, too. His average has dropped 40 points in five games. Everyone was eager to claim Marte back to 2022 form. But he hasn’t looked that way recently.

Every hitter is going to have good and bad streaks and things stand out more at the beginning of the year. Lindor stinks, until he doesn’t. Marte’s back, until he isn’t. Makes it very hard to predict what the team will do offensively, which explains the very bad and very good swings we’ve seen with the hitters. Don’t like how your favorite hitter is doing? Wait a week and he’ll get back on your good side.

Which brings us to the bullpen. Can this group keep it up the rest of the way, unlike their 2023 cousins? Is it likely that Reed Garrett and Jorge Lopez can continue their fabulous pitching here in the first 32 games? With Garrett, there wasn’t much of an MLB track record and on top of that, he’s reworked his pitch mix substantially. With Lopez, everyone likes to tag him as an All-Star but he was rotten most of that year and hasn’t been very good prior to 2024, in a sample over 10 times as big as Garrett’s.

Yet, if you were offered for Garrett to be this good the rest of the year, with Lopez reverting to his career marks, it feels like everyone would take that outcome. We all expect Edwin Diaz to be good and Adam Ottavino has a long track record with good results, even if not quite this good. Diaz, Ottavino and Garrett excelling would be a great start to a top-notch bullpen.

Now we just have to hope that Houser doesn’t bring any bad juju to the relievers.