The Mets have a number of players in the minors right now who are playing well but their names are not the ones we were quite expecting. Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert were both Top 5 prospects and they are both injured, Luisangel Acuna and Kevin Parada are underwhelming and Ryan Clifford’s biggest asset right now seems to be a willingness to take a walk. Last year the big Met prospects were almost all hitters and this year it was more or less the same. I ranked Blade Tidwell 5th overall and Scott started the year at 8th but the expected narrative was about the hitting.
In this season the Mets minor league system has impressed with a wealth of pitching success stories that defy expectations. Christian Scott is the poster boy for this year thanks to being highest in the minors and having a successful outing at the major league level. So why was it that I ranked him only 8th overall before the season? Well for that, you have to look at 2021.
Scott was drafted by the Mets in the 5th round of the 2021 draft. He was a college aged pitcher with a big frame and what we saw was ultimately what we thought we were going to get. He had a fastball that reached 95 but sat in the lower 90s and a slider as his go-to breaking pitch and the scouting reports were not clear emphatic about anything being better than average. He would pitch a few games in 2021 but began his 2022 season in Low A despite being a college pitcher.
In 2022 Scott pitched 37.1 innings in Port St. Lucie and 21.1 innings for Brooklyn. At neither level do his numbers stand out. This isn’t to say Scott was a bad pitcher but if you look at the numbers for the year: 58.2 IP, 4.45 ERA, 61 Hits, 22 Walks, 77 Strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.41 you won’t be screaming that you have a frontline starter on your hands. Then, something changed for him.
Scott pitched for Brooklyn and Binghamton in 2023 and it was in the latter and higher level that he shined brightest. Overall he kept batters from making contact, struck out more and walked less and it wasn’t exactly clear what had changed. Some people jumped on the bandwagon but it’s hard to take a player from the back end of the rankings and suddenly thrust them into prominence.His numbers in AAA (with the exception of being home run happy) suggested that the draft scouting and 2021 eye test were wrong and his debut in Tampa Bay continued the trend.
What is astounding though, is that Christian Scott is categorically not alone…
Blade Tidwell is pitching like an Ace for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies. The player who started the season ranked 5th in the minors will be in contention for the top spot if and when Christian Scott loses his eligibility. A promotion to AAA could be close.
Like Scott, Joander Suarez, suffered from diminished expectations based on earlier years and not his most recent performances. He had one ugly outing but has pitched like a Top 20 prospect for sure.
Tyler Stuart is a personal favorite and began the year ranked 16th overall. That was a somewhat bold prediction but based on his results it seems like it’s a solid ranking.
Nolan McLean, who will get more attention because of his novelty, has been pretty excellent on the mound for Brooklyn. He began the year ranked 23rd, shot up to 15th and could go higher. A promotion to AA could be drawing close.
Brandon Sproat has some control concerns but is starting to look like he belongs in the latter half of the Top 10. Like McLean, Sproat needs a promotion because of success/age.
Speaking of promotions, Jonah Tong started the year outside my top 50 and is currently on trend to be in my May Top 20. He’s been very very good.
Franklin Gomez is only 18 and pitching exceptionally well for Low A St. Lucie. His promotion may lag behind as older pitchers are moved up to face more age appropriate competition ahead of him. Gomez is creeping closer and closer to the Top 30.
Austin Troesser is likely making his first appearance on the Top 50 thanks to a good start to the year but he is too old to pitch at his current level.
AAA: Syracuse Mets
Nate Lavender has been okay in 2024 but he needs to be exceptional to force his way onto the major league roster, at least until the major league relievers start pitching worse.
Mike Vasil began the year ranked 10th overall and is an absolute free-fall when it comes to his value and ranking. With all the positive pitching stories above, he has been a distinctly negative storyline.
Luisangel Acuna’s mystique is fading. His ranking in the Top 5 was in part due to his familial relationship but his hitting prior to becoming a Met was simply better than it’s been since he joined the team. He has begun sliding down the rankings.
Mark Vientos is back in AAA and still hitting for power. He had some nice moments in his quick cup of coffee. The Mets don’t have an immediate need for him with JD Martinez on the major league roster.
AA: Binghamton Rumble Ponies
Alex Ramirez is back in the Top 5 even if he’s only just barely at that level. He’s played well since Spring Training began but the flaws in his game (strikeouts) are still pretty glaring.
Like Acuna, Kevin Parada’s hitting in AA has begun to become a troubling thing to watch. There is still plenty of time for him to turn this around but his value is slipping.
Paul Gervase has looked pretty good in AA but he’s already 23 and should be pitching this well or better in AAA.
Jeremiah Jackson could soon fall off the Top 50 if he doesn’t begin to hit. At 24 years of age he should be playing better at the AA level than he currently is.
Jose Peroza is playing solidly but the Mets clearly don’t view him as a prospect. He could easily be playing for AAA but the Mets have him down in AA for reasons that are beyond me.
JT Schwartz is a good hitter but he lacks the power to ever actually be a meaningful prospect.
Advance A: Brooklyn Cyclones
Nick Morabito was promoted to Brooklyn and begins play at the level this week. Despite my harshness in tone when discussing him and my repeated negative reviews I’ve been forced to move him up into the Top 20.
Stanley Consuegra had done enough, in my mind, in 2023 to be freed from Brooklyn but his 2024 has been less than promising. His 2023 breakout is beginning to resemble a flash in the pan.
Ryan Clifford is keeping his OPS above .700 thanks to his ability to take walks. The power hitter will look more powerful once he gets to AA.
Low A: Port St. Lucie Mets
Ronald Hernandez cannot afford to strikeout more than once a game as he currently is on pace to do. He also needs to tag the ball with more authority and raise up his SLG.
Jesus Baez is one of the bright spots for Low A offensively. With Morabito gone he needs some help.
Colin Houck did not belong in the Top 10. He strikes out a ton and he’s just not performing to a level of a “Top Prospect”.
It was with the 2022 draft that they finally started to draft college pitchers. Scott, Stuart, Tidwell, McLean, and Sproat all have a chance to be in a major league rotation, with Scott already there. Previous higher rounds in the draft were full of “projectible” high school arms, and best player available types. Hence the duplication of guys like Baty and Vientos, and zero good starting pitchers.
And while they have clearly stated otherwise, one or two of these guys could be the Mets trade bait for that missing piece, either this year or next.
Just stay healthy baby!
Nate Lavender is done for the year and likely headed for TJ surgery having been right on the cusp…really too bad.
https://www.mlb.com/news/prospect-nate-lavender-likely-to-have-tommy-john-surgery
Yes. And as such, I don’t feel we give any weight to his ’24 performance.
Luisangel Acuna is young for his level. He didn’t hit in his first exposure to Double-A in 2022, when he had a 68 wRC+. It’s possible he’ll need two seasons in Triple-A, too.
And it’s fine if he needs two full years in Syracuse.
But we need to be honest about what he is now and what he’s likely to become. His numbers last year when the Mets acquired him, the ones that had people excited? It was a 121 wRC+, which is a good number, especially for a shortstop. But it’s not a great number. His brother had a 159 wRC+ in Double-A.
Amed Rosario had a 142 wRC+ in Double-A.
If we had a crystal ball and could perfectly rank prospects by how they ultimately performed in the majors, it’s possible that Acuna isn’t even in the top 10 for the Mets. Right now, everything is youth and pedigree. But at some point, he has to have production.
Agreed. The question now is the timing of Acuna’s development: will he be able to stick in the majors by Spring ’26 when his options have run out? Its still too early to worry or speculate (but my mind does these things).
Ryan Clifford taking walks is no small thing, as his strike outs / pitch selection was a problem after coming over to the Mets last year. In Asheville last year, he had a close-to-average 24.8% strike-out rate. Once in Brooklyn,. that rate ballooned to 36.4%. The start of this season was much the same as he struck out in 35.3% of his PA’s during his first 13 games, and walked only 7. Since then, he has walked 13 times and struck out 26.9% of his next 12 games and 51 PAs. Sure, we want our power hitters to drive the ball and drive in runs. But we already know Clifford has that kind of power. He’d never go far striking out more than a third of the time.
I won’t take anything away from his showing an ability to get walks and I will credit that he’s in a bad park for power but I just want him to hit more than he is if he’s truly a Top 10 prospect.
Not sure about Alex Ramirez on two fronts: Since April 28, he’s only 2 for his last 18, so wondering why he would be back up.
That said, his strike out rate is only 24.48% this year, which is just about (or only a hair worse than) average.
Still significant improvement. To me, he’s Ronny Mauricio with a defensive home.
From April 10th- April 30th, Acuna had a slash of .283/.339/.467, with a BABIP of .356. It’s not gangbusters, but after a frigid start, he got comfortable. That has come back down to earth since then, but, people are high on him, including the Mets. Scouting reports all expect him to have great defense, steal bases, but hit for a lower average, calling him a second lead off man at the bottom of the order. That can have value if everyone else is doing their job too.
David, Can you catch us up on Jonah Tong in some more detail? He’s making real waves right now, and damn, he has an incredible over the top delivery that just seems to be wrecking batters.