Brandon Nimmo gives the latest reasons to look beyond AVG

Brandon Nimmo got off to a horrible start this year, one that he’s still trying to work thru if you’re still stuck in the mid-20th Century and view things thru a prism of batting average. Nimmo started off 3-29, which is a .103 AVG. Since then, he’s raised it 126 points, which is nice, but still 10 points below the .239 MLB average to date. Cue the mock horror about how that’s just two points above the .237 AVG in 1968 that caused MLB to lower the pitching mound.

Of course, the OPS in MLB for ’68 was just .639 and the league averaged 3.42 runs per game. Here in 2024 the league OPS is 58 points higher and teams average 4.36 runs per game. That’s a significant difference for two points in AVG, just another data point why it’s far less than ideal to look at things with that particular stat.

And that difference is even more pronounced with Nimmo. Recall that he’s 10 points below the MLB mean for AVG. And even with that deficit, he’s 92 points above the MLB average in OPS. If that’s not impressive enough, Nimmo is that far above the mean even with some terrible luck in BABIP. The MLB average in that category this year is .288 and Nimmo’s mark is 22 points below that mark. But what’s average for the league does not always equal what’s typical for the individual. In his career, Nimmo has a .330 BABIP and he’s never produced a mark in the category below the .293 he posted in an injury-marred 2019, when he had just 254 PA for the year.

Nimmo’s terrible start had the one-two combination of a poor BABIP and an elevated K%. Strikeouts are not included in the balls in play statistic, so these are two distinct issues and not a case of double counting. After posting K% numbers above 25 in his first four seasons in the majors, Nimmo had made improvements since, posting a mark as low as 17.2% in 2022. In his first 21 games, Nimmo had a 22.0 K%.

In the 14 games since that season-opening stretch, Nimmo has a 16.1 K%.

While strikeouts are not included in BABIP, for Nimmo they go hand in hand. He had a .250 BABIP in his first 21 games with the elevated K rate. But in these last 14 games, as he’s made more contact, Nimmo has a .290 BABIP. Of course, the goal isn’t just to produce a certain level with your balls in play – it’s to deliver a high OPS. You don’t want to be Harrison Bader with a .351 BABIP and only a .654 OPS. And Nimmo is no Bader. In these last 62 PA, Nimmo has a .275/.403/.529 line for a .933 OPS, which is terrific.

For the year, Nimmo has a .229/.377/412 line, which in this hitting environment is a 132 OPS+, which is pretty much exactly where he’s been since 2021. Last year he had a 128 OPS+, the year before it was 130 and before that it was a 131 OPS+. Now the question is if he can take it even higher. Twice previously Nimmo has an OPS+ in the 140s. He had a 145 during the Covid year and a career-best 148 in 2018.

To get back into the 140s, Nimmo is going to have to deliver more power. In 2020, Nimmo had a .204 ISO and in 2018 it was a .219 mark. He fell off considerably in ISO in 2021, posting just a .145 mark. Nimmo has been working back towards that .200 ISO level, posting a .193 last year, thanks to a late-season surge.

In his final 42 games last year, Nimmo had a .322/.390/.573 mark, good for a .251 ISO.

Nimmo’s current good stretch is just one-third of the games of his ’23 year-ending heater. We know he can deliver great power over 30% of the season – can he do it for an even longer stretch here in 2024? With the way he’s making solid contact this year, one has to be encouraged that he can.

In previous seasons, Nimmo’s “x” stats were all lower than his actual numbers. The “x” stands for expected, based on the quality of contact made. For example, in his big year of ’18, Nimmo had a .385 wOBA, which is outstanding. But based on the quality of his contact, his xwOBA was just .349 – still a good number but nowhere near as impressive. And the past six years all showed lower “x” numbers, so it’s not like ’18 was an exception.

But this season, Nimmo has a .358 wOBA and a .430 xwOBA which is a shocking turnaround. And his xBA is .301 and his xSLG is .563, both also well above his actual numbers to date. Those last two numbers fall in the 92nd and 95th percentile in all of MLB this year. And these are his numbers for the entire season to date, not just the last 14 games.

His Hard Hit% is 49.5, which ranks in the 87th percentile. Nimmo’s average exit velocity is 92.6, which is in the 90th percentile. At one point in his career, it may have been fair to peg Nimmo as a guy who drew a lot of walks and hit bloops and balls the other way. But this is simply no longer the case. He still draws walks – his 15.4 BB% is in the 96th percentile – but he now makes great contact to go along with the free passes.

It’s now a legitimate question to ask if the Mets would be better served by having Nimmo bat lower in the order. Despite his poor start, Nimmo leads the team with 25 RBIs. That says as much about the struggles of Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor as it does Nimmo. Those two guys have someone with a .377 OBP batting ahead of them, while Nimmo has the .314 of Bader and the .250 of Tomas Nido or the .222 of Omar Narvaez.

The problem with moving Nimmo lower in the order is who replaces him at leadoff? The next best OBPs are the .365 of DJ Stewart and the .350 of J.D. Martinez. Even their biggest fans wouldn’t advocate for batting one of those guys first. The next best is Jeff McNeil and his .324 OBP, which is 53 points below Nimmo’s mark.

Until the point where there’s a legitimate replacement available, it makes no sense to me to move Nimmo lower in the order. Besides, it’s unlikely that the greybeards were complaining when Tommie Agee had 75 RBIs and a team-leading 24 HR from the leadoff spot in 1970. And that team had several options as good or better than Agee to bat first in the order.

Even with the slow start and the disappointing AVG, Nimmo is just as productive as ever and with his quality of contact this year, there are reasons to expect him to produce even better going forward. He’s the guy you want to see up regardless of the situation. He’s the best guy on the team to get a rally started with his ability to get on base. And with a 1.132 OPS with runners in scoring position, with 20 RBIS in 39 PA, he’s the guy you want to see up with runners on base, too.

If all you do is look at his AVG, you’re missing a terrific producer.