For the third time in his last four starts, Jose Quintana turned in a sub-par performance Friday night, as he allowed 4 ER in 5 IP, thanks to 3 HR allowed. It was a Game Score of 40, a metric designed so 50 is an average start. At least it was better than the game that immediately preceded it, as Quintana allowed 8 ER in 2.2 IP versus the Rays, which was a Game Score of 7. For the season, Quintana has a 5.44 ERA and a 4.99 FIP. And this is despite having an 8 IP, 1 ER game to his credit. We’ve seen good and we’ve seen lousy – it’s hard to know what to make of Quintana at this point.
The easiest thing to do is to overreact, to make judgments based on a few starts, on a guy who turned in a 3.57 ERA last year and a 2.93 the year before. And the next easiest thing to do is just to keep trotting him out there, lousy start after lousy start, hoping for regression to arrive. It worked so well last year, giving Carlos Carrasco 20 starts and have him post a 6.80 ERA before they finally pulled the plug.
Last year with Carrasco, part of the reason he continued to get starts was because they didn’t really have many options. There were the injuries and the trades, along with the failure of the depth starters at the beginning of the year. Carrasco made his last start for the Mets on August 26, one where he posted a Game Score of 22, the 14th time in 20 outings where he had a below-average start.
In September of last year, the Mets’ rotation was Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Quintana and Jose Butto, with Joey Lucchesi as the sixth starter. In the first half of the year, Megill had a 5.17 ERA and Peterson had a 6.46 mark. And while Butto’s ERA was solid, he allowed 11 BB in 12 IP. You can’t blame the Mets for not bumping Carrasco sooner when these were the replacement options.
But it’s likely a different story in 2024. The Mets already felt confident enough to bust Adrian Houser to the pen for Christian Scott, who turned in a very strong performance in his MLB debut. How Scott fares against a potent Braves lineup may be an indication if his stint in the majors has length. But even if Scott bombs, there’s the impending return of Megill, to be followed soon by Senga.
Which makes the question: How much rope does Quintana have?
Complicating the issue is that there likely isn’t room in the bullpen for both Houser and Quintana, especially with Drew Smith nearing a return from the IL. Quintana has experience pitching out of the pen, with 26 games as a reliever under his belt, with 23 of those coming while he struggled as a starter between 2019-2021. His overall numbers as a reliever are solid, especially given his struggles as a starter in the same time frame.
Houser has slightly more experience as a reliever, to go along with better results, as he has a 1.71 ERA, along with a 1.131 WHIP in 63.1 IP out of the pen. Either would be an option to go multiple innings, like the two frames Houser gave Friday night. It would be helpful to know which pitcher gets loose quicker and which one would be able to return to the mound sooner after an appearance.
There’s nothing saying that the Mets have to insert Megill into the rotation when his rehab ends. It’s just that he’s enjoyed favored-nation status for a while that it feels almost predestined. But the Mets could option him to the minors – or put him in the pen, for that matter – and keep Quintana in the rotation. But there’s no possible equivocation with Senga. When he’s ready, he immediately goes into the rotation. Senga’s eligible to come off the IL on May 27 and there have yet to be reports he won’t be ready, either on that day or soon afterwards.
Of course, we’ve heard rumors of the 6-man rotation, which could be Butto, Manaea, Quintana, Scott, Senga and Severino. And maybe with five relievers capable of going multiple innings, you can run a true 6-man rotation. As a long-time proponent of carrying – and using that way – several multi-inning relievers, it would be nice to see a pen run that way.
Still, my preference is to see better results from Quintana going forward. He deserves more chances to get back on track. But he doesn’t deserve unlimited opportunities in this regard. My hope is to never again witness a Mets SP make 20 starts and be as lousy as Carrasco was last season. And with the options at their disposal, the 2024 club has no reason to repeat that debacle.
Corrasco is still pitching for the Indians with a 2-3 record and a -0.7 bWAR. Quintana has a 1-4 record with a 0.1 bWAR and both have mid fives ERAs. Seem kind of the same, no?
Quintana said after his last start that he just gave up too many soft hits. Well, the Braves got some soft homers, but it was only one inning and four scores ones… so, is he unusable? Maybe the Mets offense is more of the culprit?
*and four scoreless ones…
It’s silly to use W-L record when evaluating either pitchers or a WAR statistic
It also seems baffling to cite the offense as a problem when the pitcher gives up 12 runs in 7.2 IP over his past two starts. Even if you just want to look at Friday’s start, Mets pitchers came into the game with a sub-3.00 ERA in Citi Field. Quintana’s 4 ER in 5 IP is a 7.20 ERA. It’s definitely a case of Quintana being the culprit. By a large margin.
I do think he’s the next guy on the chopping block.
Quintana has always been an up and down pitcher, with good seasons and bad seasons. Last year he was very good.
I don’t think the Mets need to make an immediate decision. But like Houser before him, Q must give the Mets a chance to compete in games. If he continues to fall shy of the 6 IP, 3 R threshold (a 4.50 ERA), and we’ve got David Peterson ready to go, shrug, that’s the move to make.
Two more starts.
He got burned last night in 1 inning, but was otherwise effective. Braves are tough on anyone and the 3 hitters who got him had a combined 7 home runs going into the game while Quintana had not given up many HRs at all. I look at it as more of a fluke last night – but let’s see how he does in his next outing.
Sounds like Senga is not nearly as close to returning as we’d like (according to Mendoza today) and at this point I’d be surprised if it’s before the all star break.
Senga health was a question when they signed him. They went out of their way to protect him last year. Chances are he might have serious issues that will hamper him all season.
Quintana wasn’t good but neither was hitting. The bench and the bottom of the order are bad. McNeil looks bad,catch is terrible and Baty hasn’t done much Lots of pitching and several coming back. Trade a couple of pitchers fore a couple of hitters who are average.
5/12/24: Megill won for Syracuse and pitched 5.1 innings with 0 ER. This complicates the equation. Quintana should go to the bullpen.
The next problem will be when Smith is ready. Houser should be DFA or traded. Megill could be a starter for the next 4 years so it would be prudent give him the first chance because he is pitching well. Houser and Quintana are free agents so they aren’t in the Mets future plans.
The Mets’ pen right now is – Diaz, Ottavino, Garrett, Diekman, Lopez, SRF, Houser and Ramirez.
If Smith is ready to rejoin the team now, you figure they would DFA Ramirez again. Quintana should be slated to pitch 5/15. Do the Mets let him take that start and then make a decision on keeping him in the rotation? If so, do they try to get Megill to match up with him in the minors? Right now, Megill is a day behind, so if he were to replace him on 5/15, he’d be pitching on 3 days rest.
Also, if Quintana fails in his next start and Houser has another good bullpen outing – do they move Houser back to the rotation?
Be curious how this shakes out.
An article on Mets.com lays out their plans for the rotation in the immediate short term:
https://www.mlb.com/mets/news/adrian-houser-back-in-rotation-with-kodai-senga-injured
Houser will be starting on Wednesday (5/15), followed by Quintana and Severino. But they won’t commit to a 6-man rotation. As for Megill, they are still discussing things and “everything is still on the table”, according to Mendoza. This includes keeping him on rehab for at least one more start, calling him up to the rotation, the bullpen, or just optioning him down to the minors.