The Marlins jumped Christian Scott with a four-run second inning and cruised to an 8-0 win in the opener of a three-game series Friday night in Miami.
The one concern with Scott this year in Triple-A was his tendency to give up the gopher ball. After keeping the ball in the park in his first outing, Scott has given up homers in his next two starts. This time it was a three-run homer to give the Marlins a commanding lead. Scott has allowed 2 HR in 16.2 IP in his three starts. It’s not a horrible ratio but it’s led to a 4.32 ERA. And it’s only that low because he pitched out of a bases-loaded, no-out situation in the fourth inning.
And the Mets didn’t get good production from their “C” relievers, as Josh Walker and Grant Hartwig each gave up 2 ER in 2 IP.
Jesus Luzardo and three relievers limited the Mets to six hits and no runs. Luzardo was particularly effective, as he fanned seven and did not walk a batter in his six innings.
J.D. Martinez had two of the Mets’ six hits and now has a .309 AVG.
I was miffed because I zoned out on the fact there was a game today. But after seeing the score and reading the above summary…
Thanks, Brian, for suffering so I didn’t have to
I have to say, this is getting really discouraging, possibly because there have been glimpses that the Metsies don’t have to be so… mediocre
Regardless, losing 8-zip to the Marlins? Well, they still have a 7-game lead
Who hijacked Brian’s password and wrote this piece??? We know Brian hates batting average and avoids mentioning it at all costs? Come on, fess up… was it you Name?
As for the game, I’m glad I was working.
It’s not true that I avoid mentioning AVG at all costs. There’s nothing wrong with mentioning it – no different than if you saw a black cat and pointed it out.
The problem is thinking that AVG is a way to rate the usefulness of a hitter. Much like if you use the color of a cat to rate how your day is going to turn out.
Oh? You want to tell the Cubs that?
BA and LD% seem to go hand in hand. But nonetheless, my problem with OPS is that it uses OBP as an equal stat, but it isn’t. The walk is not a stat that produces runs, unless the bases are loaded or you have the speed of a base stealer. Too many players that should be hunting pitches to crush, are looking to walk. Brandon Nimmo, to me, is as much a butterfly as Daniel Murphy was in his transformation. [I recall when Tony Gwynn said he will look to start driving the inside pitch instead of being satisfied with a single to centerfield.] Jeff McNeil is still a caterpillar. Pete Alonso is a dragonfly hunting mosquitos (doesn’t he look like Frank Thomas playing first base this year?).
I guess we will never see eye to eye on it.
Walks are the love of the “true outcomes” perspective. K, BB, HR. It makes things simple because the number of variables drop way down. Nothing else involved than pitcher or hitter.
Ask any player of they’d like to hit .300 or .220 and Im sure what the answer would be!!
That’s misleading at best and closer to knowingly unfair.
Context is everything.
Hits are better than walks which are better than outs. If you bat .300 and your OBP is .320 you’re simply not as productive as the guy who bats .220 and has an OBP of .350
But you know this.
Brian, a perfect scenario to explain to you why you are wrong. A player that is batting .220 but has a .350 OBP is not as valuable as a player hitting .300 with a .320 OBP. To begin with, it’s almost impossible to have a .320 OBP if you are hitting .300, but let’s play along. Assuming all your hits are singles and there isn’t a Kyle Schwarber variable, how many runs batted in does the guy with a lower batting average have? Is he expecting the guys behind him to get the hits? At least the guy with the higher batting average will drive runners in from second. As we know, baseball is a game of failures. So, a 30% outcome that can get a point on the scoreboard for your team is better than a 35% outcome that won’t, that needs at least one more 35% outcome collectively to possibly get a run in.
My point is, a player that goes up to the plate holding a bat, better be willing to use it. If it’s just an ornament because his first priority is to hunt for a walk, he isn’t helping his team. He can accept a walk, but his job is to h i t! Not w a l k. That’s why Nimmo is better now than he used to be when he had an annual .400 OBP but never made an all star team.
No one is suggesting that a guy who has a lousy batting average and a non-existent SLG should be playing a lot. That’s like saying the Mets should promote Luisangel Acuna because he had a bunch of 1-5 games.
Let’s look at the guys with a sub-.240 AVG and who have an OBP at least 100 points higher and see what their SLG and ISO is. League average ISO is .146:
Gavin Sheets – .236/.342/.402 – ISO of .166
Rhys Hoskins – .233/.340/.474 – ISO of .241
Jonathan India – .229/.335/.307 – ISO of .078
Spencer Steer – .228/.339/.380 – ISO of .152
Matt Olson – .227/.331/.400 – ISO of .173
Max Muncy – .223/.323/.475 – ISO of .252
Jesse Winker – .223/.343/.367 – ISO of .144
Kyle Schwarber – .218/.322/.394 – ISO of .178
Edouard Julien – .217/.325/.413 – ISO of .196
Ian Happ – .216/.330/.314 – ISO of .098
Brandon Nimmo – .215/.361/.396 – ISO of .181
Andrew McCutchen – .213/.320/.378 – ISO of .165
Ha-Seong Kim – .205/.317/.348 – ISO of .138
Tyler Freeman – .197/.304/.339 – ISO of .142
Jorge Polanco – .192/.298/.308 – ISO of .116
Mitch Garver – .176/.286/.344 – ISO of .168
That’s 16 guys and 10 had an ISO greater than league average and two more within four points of that threshold. On the flip side, only two had ISOs under 100 – the ones who seemingly want to go up there and walk. India’s only playing a lot due to injuries and Happ has a lifetime .199 ISO, so I think it’s hard to say that he’s not looking to hit the ball hard.
As for Nimmo, he’s had good ISOs in all of his seasons where he wasn’t bogged down by injury. When he first broke thru as a regular in 2018, he had a .219 ISO.
Finally, let’s look at OPS+ and wRC+ for our group above, with wRC+ listed first
Sheets – 116, 113
Hoskins – 132, 132
India – 87, 84
Steer – 105, 104
Olson – 108, 107
Muncy – 123, 125
Winker – 107, 109
Schwarber – 106, 105
Julien – 116, 112
Happ – 93, 84
Nimmo – 123, 128
McCutchen – 101, 102
Kim – 96, 96
Freeman – 90, 87
Polanco – 83, 80
Garver – 88, 85
That’s 15 of our 16 players within five points with their wRC+ and OPS+ and 13 within 3 points. Happ is the only one greater than five points and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was within five by the end of the season.
I can’t tell you why OPS/OPS+ works as well as it does. But when you use it, you’ve got an excellent approximation of a much more complicated stat. I’ll gladly make that tradeoff for simplicity.
You’re making mountains out of molehills
If it bothers you that much – and it shouldn’t – use wRC+. That incorporates walks being worth less than singles, which are worth less than doubles and so on.
And then when you get used to wRC+, go back and compare that to OPS+. They’re very similar.
We use OPS and OPS+ because they’re simple and get you mighty close to the right answer.
I’m not trying to be a jerk. But ultimately your ranting and raving against OPS says more about you than the stat.
But it’s fun!!! And you’re right, it’s so prefer RC+.
For Brian l’ll add that JD’s OPS is .812
Gut Reaction: they can’t obtain momentum in the past week when they won with Nimmo homerun and won in extra innings in Philadelphia.
Scott hung too many sliders and it finally cost him with Forte.
6 singles. Zero runs. Weaker team. Faced yet another “high level” starter. It’s only 1 of 162…but this weekend does qualify as part of the soft portion of the schedule.
All I know is that 11 of 15 batters have a BA below 240. And 11 of 15 batters have an OPS below700. There seems to be a correlation.