The Marlins jumped Christian Scott with a four-run second inning and cruised to an 8-0 win in the opener of a three-game series Friday night in Miami.

The one concern with Scott this year in Triple-A was his tendency to give up the gopher ball. After keeping the ball in the park in his first outing, Scott has given up homers in his next two starts. This time it was a three-run homer to give the Marlins a commanding lead. Scott has allowed 2 HR in 16.2 IP in his three starts. It’s not a horrible ratio but it’s led to a 4.32 ERA. And it’s only that low because he pitched out of a bases-loaded, no-out situation in the fourth inning.

And the Mets didn’t get good production from their “C” relievers, as Josh Walker and Grant Hartwig each gave up 2 ER in 2 IP.

Jesus Luzardo and three relievers limited the Mets to six hits and no runs. Luzardo was particularly effective, as he fanned seven and did not walk a batter in his six innings.

J.D. Martinez had two of the Mets’ six hits and now has a .309 AVG.

14 comments on “Gut Reaction: Marlins 8, Mets 0 (5/17/24)

  • José Hunter

    I was miffed because I zoned out on the fact there was a game today. But after seeing the score and reading the above summary…

    Thanks, Brian, for suffering so I didn’t have to

    I have to say, this is getting really discouraging, possibly because there have been glimpses that the Metsies don’t have to be so… mediocre

    Regardless, losing 8-zip to the Marlins? Well, they still have a 7-game lead

  • TexasGusCC

    Who hijacked Brian’s password and wrote this piece??? We know Brian hates batting average and avoids mentioning it at all costs? Come on, fess up… was it you Name?

    As for the game, I’m glad I was working.

    • Brian Joura

      It’s not true that I avoid mentioning AVG at all costs. There’s nothing wrong with mentioning it – no different than if you saw a black cat and pointed it out.

      The problem is thinking that AVG is a way to rate the usefulness of a hitter. Much like if you use the color of a cat to rate how your day is going to turn out.

      • TexasGusCC

        Oh? You want to tell the Cubs that?

        BA and LD% seem to go hand in hand. But nonetheless, my problem with OPS is that it uses OBP as an equal stat, but it isn’t. The walk is not a stat that produces runs, unless the bases are loaded or you have the speed of a base stealer. Too many players that should be hunting pitches to crush, are looking to walk. Brandon Nimmo, to me, is as much a butterfly as Daniel Murphy was in his transformation. [I recall when Tony Gwynn said he will look to start driving the inside pitch instead of being satisfied with a single to centerfield.] Jeff McNeil is still a caterpillar. Pete Alonso is a dragonfly hunting mosquitos (doesn’t he look like Frank Thomas playing first base this year?).

        I guess we will never see eye to eye on it.

        • ChrisF

          Walks are the love of the “true outcomes” perspective. K, BB, HR. It makes things simple because the number of variables drop way down. Nothing else involved than pitcher or hitter.

          Ask any player of they’d like to hit .300 or .220 and Im sure what the answer would be!!

          • Brian Joura

            That’s misleading at best and closer to knowingly unfair.

            Context is everything.

            Hits are better than walks which are better than outs. If you bat .300 and your OBP is .320 you’re simply not as productive as the guy who bats .220 and has an OBP of .350

            But you know this.

            • TexasGusCC

              Brian, a perfect scenario to explain to you why you are wrong. A player that is batting .220 but has a .350 OBP is not as valuable as a player hitting .300 with a .320 OBP. To begin with, it’s almost impossible to have a .320 OBP if you are hitting .300, but let’s play along. Assuming all your hits are singles and there isn’t a Kyle Schwarber variable, how many runs batted in does the guy with a lower batting average have? Is he expecting the guys behind him to get the hits? At least the guy with the higher batting average will drive runners in from second. As we know, baseball is a game of failures. So, a 30% outcome that can get a point on the scoreboard for your team is better than a 35% outcome that won’t, that needs at least one more 35% outcome collectively to possibly get a run in.

              My point is, a player that goes up to the plate holding a bat, better be willing to use it. If it’s just an ornament because his first priority is to hunt for a walk, he isn’t helping his team. He can accept a walk, but his job is to h i t! Not w a l k. That’s why Nimmo is better now than he used to be when he had an annual .400 OBP but never made an all star team.

              • Brian Joura

                No one is suggesting that a guy who has a lousy batting average and a non-existent SLG should be playing a lot. That’s like saying the Mets should promote Luisangel Acuna because he had a bunch of 1-5 games.

                Let’s look at the guys with a sub-.240 AVG and who have an OBP at least 100 points higher and see what their SLG and ISO is. League average ISO is .146:

                Gavin Sheets – .236/.342/.402 – ISO of .166
                Rhys Hoskins – .233/.340/.474 – ISO of .241
                Jonathan India – .229/.335/.307 – ISO of .078
                Spencer Steer – .228/.339/.380 – ISO of .152
                Matt Olson – .227/.331/.400 – ISO of .173
                Max Muncy – .223/.323/.475 – ISO of .252
                Jesse Winker – .223/.343/.367 – ISO of .144
                Kyle Schwarber – .218/.322/.394 – ISO of .178
                Edouard Julien – .217/.325/.413 – ISO of .196
                Ian Happ – .216/.330/.314 – ISO of .098
                Brandon Nimmo – .215/.361/.396 – ISO of .181
                Andrew McCutchen – .213/.320/.378 – ISO of .165
                Ha-Seong Kim – .205/.317/.348 – ISO of .138
                Tyler Freeman – .197/.304/.339 – ISO of .142
                Jorge Polanco – .192/.298/.308 – ISO of .116
                Mitch Garver – .176/.286/.344 – ISO of .168

                That’s 16 guys and 10 had an ISO greater than league average and two more within four points of that threshold. On the flip side, only two had ISOs under 100 – the ones who seemingly want to go up there and walk. India’s only playing a lot due to injuries and Happ has a lifetime .199 ISO, so I think it’s hard to say that he’s not looking to hit the ball hard.

                As for Nimmo, he’s had good ISOs in all of his seasons where he wasn’t bogged down by injury. When he first broke thru as a regular in 2018, he had a .219 ISO.

                Finally, let’s look at OPS+ and wRC+ for our group above, with wRC+ listed first

                Sheets – 116, 113
                Hoskins – 132, 132
                India – 87, 84
                Steer – 105, 104
                Olson – 108, 107
                Muncy – 123, 125
                Winker – 107, 109
                Schwarber – 106, 105
                Julien – 116, 112
                Happ – 93, 84
                Nimmo – 123, 128
                McCutchen – 101, 102
                Kim – 96, 96
                Freeman – 90, 87
                Polanco – 83, 80
                Garver – 88, 85

                That’s 15 of our 16 players within five points with their wRC+ and OPS+ and 13 within 3 points. Happ is the only one greater than five points and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was within five by the end of the season.

                I can’t tell you why OPS/OPS+ works as well as it does. But when you use it, you’ve got an excellent approximation of a much more complicated stat. I’ll gladly make that tradeoff for simplicity.

        • Brian Joura

          You’re making mountains out of molehills

          If it bothers you that much – and it shouldn’t – use wRC+. That incorporates walks being worth less than singles, which are worth less than doubles and so on.

          And then when you get used to wRC+, go back and compare that to OPS+. They’re very similar.

          We use OPS and OPS+ because they’re simple and get you mighty close to the right answer.

          I’m not trying to be a jerk. But ultimately your ranting and raving against OPS says more about you than the stat.

          • TexasGusCC

            But it’s fun!!! And you’re right, it’s so prefer RC+.

  • NYM6986

    For Brian l’ll add that JD’s OPS is .812

  • Metsense

    Gut Reaction: they can’t obtain momentum in the past week when they won with Nimmo homerun and won in extra innings in Philadelphia.
    Scott hung too many sliders and it finally cost him with Forte.

  • T.J.

    6 singles. Zero runs. Weaker team. Faced yet another “high level” starter. It’s only 1 of 162…but this weekend does qualify as part of the soft portion of the schedule.

  • Woodrow

    All I know is that 11 of 15 batters have a BA below 240. And 11 of 15 batters have an OPS below700. There seems to be a correlation.

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