Mets pitchers and their troubling road numbers

Up until this point, Citi Field has played as an extreme pitcher’s park, which is making the pitchers look much better than they are in reality. Mets’ pitchers have a 2.89 ERA in their home park, compared to a 5.31 ERA on the road. Knowing this, let’s take a look at how the pitchers have done on the road, which should give a better look at their 2024 talent level. Furthermore, let’s break it down by starters and relievers, beginning with the SP:

This is pretty ugly. Let’s try to make it look a little better by removing the two disastrous starts by Lucchesi and Teheran. That leaves us with 23 games, 117.1 IP, 74 ER and a 5.68 ERA. The road ERA is being inflated by Quintana and Houser, who both have marks above the average here. If the Mets were being honest about performance, neither would be in the rotation going forward. And their rotten results have essentially given a free pass to Severino, who’s been nearly as bad as expected on the road, with his overall numbers looking good solely due to his Citi Field numbers.

My sincere hope is that Houser has made his last start for the Mets. With Butto ineligible to be recalled now unless a pitcher goes on the IL, the move seems to be to switch Houser back to the pen, which re-balances the staff to five starters and eight relievers. And when Butto is eligible to return, the club can make the decision if they want to stick with Quintana or Scott. Assuming they don’t make a move in the interim to promote David Peterson.

You need SP depth. But how much do you need? We have the first eight names in the chart, along with Peterson and some time next month Kodai Senga. It’s my opinion that David Stearns should be shopping Houser, Quintana and Severino right now, to see if he can get anything halfway promising in return. Houser would clearly be addition by subtraction. Perhaps Stearns could get something useful for Quintana and/or Severino by picking up part/all of their remaining salary.

All three of these pitchers will be free agents following the 2024 season. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where either Houser or Quintana return. Perhaps there’s a half-decent shot the Mets would re-up with Severino, depending on how the other depth starters do the rest of the season. But if Severino could command a 1/$13 deal after not pitching either very often or very well in the past five years, what could he get if he finished the year with 30 starts and an ERA in the high threes or low fours? Would the Mets be interested in a 3/$50 deal with him? More importantly, should they be interested?

Houser and Severino were brought aboard this year to help the Mets in a long-shot playoff chase. And not that the Mets should be giving up the ghost on that goal but rather are they keeping better pitchers from getting a chance? It’s been clear to me for months that Butto was better than Houser. Is Scott better than Severino or Quintana?

What’ the ideal rotation for the Mets, with the belief that the road ERAs are a better gauge of their performance this year? You could argue for Senga, Manaea, Megill, Scott and Butto. Neither Senga nor Butto is eligible right this minute. So, you don’t have to make a trade yesterday. But if there’s a good one to be made now, the Mets shouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger. There are still depth starters available. If there’s a good deal now for Severino, the club could have: Manaea, Megill, Scott, Quintana and Lucchesi/Peterson as their rotation until Butto and Senga are ready.

Now let’s look at the relievers. This time, we won’t include everyone who’s thrown a pitch from the pen. Instead, we’ll just look at the top nine contenders for a bullpen spot.

It’s tougher to draw any conclusions from the relievers than it is for the starters, at least right now. Diaz and Ottavino likely aren’t going anywhere. And with Brooks Raley being out, it’s unlikely that the Mets would move on from Diekman. Should they shop those three? Sure, let’s do that under due diligence. Certainly, you hope Diaz bounces back and odds of getting good value in a deal right now seem slim. Ottavino, much like Severino, is a veteran having his numbers boosted by Citi Field. Maybe he should be shopped more aggressively than Diaz. And perhaps if Quintana makes a move to the pen, the club could consider trading/releasing Diekman.

Just because someone will mention it as a knee-jerk reaction, let’s point out that these are all small samples, ones further reduced by focusing on road numbers. But if we expect anything to regress, it will be the numbers posted at Citi Field, with those trending towards the more historical rates of it being a slight pitcher’s park, rather than an extreme one. If Severino and Diekman – and others – are having their overall numbers look better by their home park, what happens if/when Citi Field starts playing more like it has in the past? It means their overall numbers trend more towards their road ones.

It’s unusual for trades to be made in late-May or early-June. We did see one this year, with the Marlins and Padres pulling the trigger. Yet that was a case of the Marlins admitting their season was over. The Mets don’t have to approach making a deal in that way. While things look bleak at the moment, there is still enough talent available to start stacking wins together.

Rather, the Mets should approach a trade now with the idea of clearing the way for better pitchers to have an unblocked path to the majors. And who knows, there might even be the much-discussed, seldom-seen, sell-high opportunity here, too.