Looking deeper at Francisco Lindor’s lineup spot

Francisco Lindor has seen success this season following a slow start. This has been a typical pattern of Lindor’s time with the Mets, a slow start followed by elite production at the plate. The difference this year is that the turnaround seemed to happen when Lindor was moved into the leadoff spot in the batting order. It had been some time since Lindor hit leadoff, and the results started pouring in after the jolt. In the 24 games he’s batted leadoff, Lindor has surged to a .861 OPS, and a .293 batting average. Compare that to the .679 OPS and .235 he has performed to in the 29 games he’s batted third. While this has clearly been a better stretch for Lindor since the move, is it actually in line with his career stats?

The common narrative that exists with Lindor is that he has not been the same player that he was when he played for Cleveland. In many ways, Lindor has been a different player, including a lower batting average and on base percentage during his time with the Mets. The fielding has remained the same, despite the lack of Gold Gloves, Lindor has played a stellar shortstop. By the way Lindor has performed in the leadoff spot since being moved there, you would think that this has been his premier batting position throughout his career. Despite the stark differences between how he has performed in each slot, his career numbers show where exactly he has been different in each spot.

Over the course of his career, Lindor has had about the same amount of at bats in both the leadoff (1708) and third spot (1733) in the batting order. He has the exact same career batting average of .277 in each spot and has marginal differences in hits and OBP. The stark difference is seen in his slugging percentage, where he has performed significantly better in the leadoff spot than the third spot. His .514 slugging in the leadoff spot trumps the .449 slugging in the third spot, which leads to the OPS numbers being starkly different as well. The difference has been even more stark in 2024, where Lindor has a .495 slugging in the leadoff spot, and a .409 slugging in the third spot.

The switch in batting order has given the Mets and Lindor a short term boost, and despite their under .500 record, they are right in the thick of the playoff race. While it has given a burst of excitement to the team, Lindor batting leadoff should not be a long-term solution for the team that has committed their future to him. It can work this year, when the Mets have J.D Martinez and Pete Alonso still in the lineup. However, as soon as this year’s trade deadline, that may not be the same scenario. It’s possible that Alonso and Martinez, both with contracts expiring at the end of the season, are shipped off to contenders, leaving Lindor as the primary source of offense.

However if the success in leadoff continues for Lindor, it’s possible that he stays in that spot in the lineup for the foreseeable future. If that is the case, there needs to be an examination of who bats after him in the lineup. For the time being, the second spot in the lineup has been filled by Brandon Nimmo, another player that is locked in long-term with the Mets. Nimmo has floundered in the role, and has not been himself this season as his injuries have derailed his ability to have an impact on the game. Francisco Alvarez will provide power from the catching position, but he has not yet been able to hold a spot in the top of the lineup. Starling Marte has had a quietly productive season, but that could make him an option for a team looking for an ancillary lineup addition.

At the end of the day, the Mets will have to surround Lindor with some firepower in the lineup if they want to be successful, no matter if he is hitting leadoff, third, or anywhere in between. With the lack of results this year, thinking about what the lineup will look like after this year’s trade deadline and beyond has become a precarious task. In an ideal world, Lindor is able to figure out his struggles in the three hole to become the central piece in the Mets lineup. Until then, they will absolutely take the production they’ve received from him in the leadoff spot.