Breaking down Sean Manaea’s production as a Met

In his first 13 games as a Met, Sean Manaea is 4-3 with a 4.11 ERA. That’s a 93 ERA+ and he’s averaging just a tick over 5 IP per start, as he has 65.2 IP. It’s not what I envisioned when the Mets signed him but there’s plenty of blame to go around for that.

First, perhaps my expectations were out of whack. From 2020-2023, Manaea had a 4.42 ERA in 509 IP. That works out to a 91 ERA+ or not too far off from what he has this season. One could be justified in claiming there was too much weight put on by me by what Manaea did in the second half of 2023, when he had a 3.43 ERA and a 1.144 WHIP.

Second, you can posit that part of the reason that Manaea only has 65.2 IP is because Carlos Mendoza has been looking for reasons to pull Manaea at the first opportunity. Thursday is a perfect illustration, as he was pitching well thru five innings, gave a leadoff hit in the sixth and was immediately pulled. He’s never given a chance to work thru some difficulty after the fifth inning. And it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. You can point to Manaea’s .815 OPS allowed the third time thru the order and say that Mendoza is justified. Or, you can say that batters have a .412 BABIP the third time thru the order, suggesting that luck is playing a big role in things. Besides, if you give up a hit and get yanked, how is your OPS going to be anything but high in that situation?

Finally, we have to say that Manaea deserves a lot of blame, too. In the beginning of the year, he was walking too many people, which was driving up his pitch count and leading to early exits. In his first six starts, Manaea faced 128 batters and walked 18, for a 14.1 BB%. But in his last seven games, he’s faced 152 batters and only walked eight, for a 5.3 BB%.

Unfortunately, while Manaea has gotten his walks under control, he’s been giving up homers. In his first eight games, he allowed just 1 HR in 41.1 IP. But in his last five, he’s surrendered 6 HR in 24.1 IP. The first stretch wasn’t sustainable. Hopefully the second one isn’t, either. For the season, Manaea has a 0.96 HR/9. MLB has a 1.05 mark and SP have a 1.11 rate, so he’s right around average. It’s just how he’s arrived there that’s been an issue.

One other thing to consider is that in his 13 starts this year, there have been three stinkers that are having a disproportionate impact on his overall numbers. In those three games, Manaea has allowed 17 ER in 13 IP for an 11.77 ERA. In his other 10 starts, he has 13 ER in 52.2 IP for a 2.22 ERA.

Obviously, any pitcher is going to look a lot better if you remove his three worst starts. But Manaea has been absolutely awful in three of his 13 starts and pretty darn good in the other 10. If we remove Jose Quintana’s three worst starts (12.2 IP, 17 ER, 12.08 ERA) he still has a 3.69 ERA or 1.47 worse than Manaea. If we remove Luis Severino’s three worst starts (17 IP, 13 ER, 6.88 ERA) he has a 2.07 ERA or 0.15 better than Manaea.

Manaea’s three-worst starts this year have been equivalent to Quintana’s worst three. But his other 10 starts have been in the same ballpark as Severino’s. At this point, it’s reasonable to have some doubt about Manaea moving forward. But the case for removing him from the rotation completely seems like less than a slam dunk, at least to me.

This is being written before Quintana’s start on Saturday. Maybe he hurls a gem and Mendoza is rewarded for not giving up on him, despite my pleas to do so. Or maybe it’s another less-than-inspiring start and the chants for his removal from the rotation grow louder.

But one thing is crystal clear – the Mets need to get better production from their starters. Despite playing half of their games in pitcher-friendly Citi Field, Mets’ SP have a 4.52 ERA. MLB starters have a 4.01 ERA. The Mets rank tied for 23rd in ERA among starters, which is pretty lousy given how Citi Field has suppressed offense. Instead of being half a run worse than league average, they should be half a run better.

The Mets took a step in the right direction by removing Adrian Houser from the rotation. It’s my belief – again this is written before his Saturday start – that Quintana should be removed, too. But, it seems there is enough there for Manaea to keep his spot as long as the Mets are competing for a Wild Card berth in 2024.