Some people think I don’t like Pete Alonso, which is simply untrue. As a fan of power, it’s great to see Alonso come to the plate. The thing that doesn’t ring true for me is the idea of giving him a blank check, in terms of both years and AAV. The past three seasons, FanGraphs has Alonso’s production being worth $28.3 million in 2021, $30.8 million in 2022 and $23.2 million last year. So far here in 2024, close to the halfway point of the year, his value is pegged at $9.4 million.
Most people who’ve studied the issue believe that a player’s prime comes at the ages of 26-30. This is Alonso’s age-29 season and any future contract will cover his 30s. If forced to guess, you should imagine that Alonso would be as productive as he’s been the past three seasons over the next three years. After that? You should probably anticipate some decline. Those who propose a 7-year deal are likely going to be disappointed with his production in the back end.
That’s fairly standard in these long-term deals. The Mets are going to be on the hook for the decline years of both Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo. But those two are providing excess value in the front half of their deals. If the Mets somehow gave Alonso an AAV of $30 million – they wouldn’t get excess value in the front half.
But this is all talk that should be shelved until the offseason. Yet there’s something with Alonso and his potential contract that is worth talking about now. And that’s if the Mets should deal him by the trade deadline. With their strong play in June, most people reflexively say no to that idea. The thought being that the Mets have put themselves firmly in the Wild Card picture and Alonso will be a great help to make it to the playoffs.
It seems fair to me to ask: Is that really true?
Unless Alonso picks it up in the second half, his year-end value is going to be the lowest it’s ever been in a full season. Granted, it’s not bad. But he’s on pace to finish below last year’s 2.9 fWAR. Coming into Saturday, Alonso had a 1.2 fWAR thru 79 games of the season. How much of a drop-off in production would the Mets suffer if they dealt him? How much could they get if they traded him?
It’s not easy to come up with the answer to either of those questions. But they should absolutely know what they could get if they traded him. It may very well be that his value is greater to the Mets than it is to any other team out there. But it’s also possible that they could acquire a prospect or two good enough to pull the trigger.
The idea of this piece is not to come up with imaginary trades. Rather, it’s to bring up the question and have an honest discussion about the idea of trading him now, while still hoping to remain in the Wild Card chase. Is that a pipe dream? Maybe it is. But we have to at least consider that Alonso’s trade value could actually exceed his production for the remainder of the 2024 season. And that the Mets may be in a position to adequately replace him for the final two months of the year.
Maybe Jose Iglesias gets the playing time he deserves at third base while Mark Vientos moves over to replace Alonso at first. Maybe it’s Brett Baty at third instead of Iglesias. Or maybe it’s DJ Stewart at first. There are at least those three options available. If Iglesias or Baty or Stewart get the playing time – how close to Alonso’s production could they come?
If a team trades for Alonso, they will not be unable to offer him arbitration. So, with Steve Cohen’s deep pockets, there’s no reason that Alonso couldn’t return in the offseason, providing that they can come to terms on years and AAV. It wouldn’t cost a draft pick that the team is trying to hoard.
The whole point of this season was to see what the team had available internally. It seems like they have a keeper with Vientos. Can they find another keeper if they open up that playing time with an Alonso deal? And you can extend that same thought with one of the pitchers. Luis Severino has been mentioned as the team’s most attractive trade chit. If the Mets should see what Alonso’s trade value is – shouldn’t they do that with Severino, too?
Let’s ballpark it and say that Alonso is a little better in the second half, while Severino is a little worse than he was in the first half. Furthermore, let’s say they lose about 2.5 fWAR if they dealt them both at the trade deadline. How much of that could they recoup with internal options? Could they get 1.5 fWAR in production? And what about what they would get in return? Assuming it’s minor league guys too far away to help in 2024, how good would the return have to be?
As long as we’re spitballing, let’s say they trade those two to teams with reasonably deep farm systems. Would two top-10 prospects and a lottery ticket or two be enough for our duo? This isn’t an easy question, even from a purely theoretical POV. It seems to me that the answer has to be shaped by how much confidence you have in the guy picking the prospects.
If you go back to the articles about last year’s deadline trades, you’ll see that my reaction was that the prospects they got for the old pitchers weren’t future stars. But this go-round, it will be David Stearns, rather than Billy Eppler making the moves. Does that matter? Does Stearns inspire confidence, especially with his last big deal – the Josh Hader trade – essentially blowing up in his face?
My opinion is that these two being rentals – and not having no-trade clauses – may make them both easier to deal and have a larger group of teams as potential destinations than the two big stars from last year that the Mets dealt. And from what he’s done so far, it seems Stearns has earned the benefit of the doubt with his ability to target the right prospects.
It will be very interesting to see how the Mets handle this.
Based on where things stand now, I’d opt to hold on to assets rather than spend to improve. There just doesn’t appear to be enough pitching on the team at this point.
Assuming the Mets remained in the playoffs picture at the deadline and then traded Alsono what would be it effect of the clubhouse and team morale? Internally they might get similar production but they might not. It would be the same with a Severino trade. Stearns plan when they broke spring training with this team was to be a competitive team and make the playoffs. The players have keep their part of the bargain. At this point, management should keep there in the bargain.
In the future, management should determine if they’re going to extend a pending free agent in the previous offseason. If the player and management can’t settle then management should trade the player in the off season to avoid this Alonso situation. Tampa Bay uses this strategy and are a playoff team since 2017. Their strategy is necessary because of their payroll. Imagine if they had the funds like the Mets do.
Washington has made out pretty good on the Juan Soto for a passel of prospects deal, and still the Nats can’t seem to get out of the second division. The Mets waited a long time for Zach Wheeler to finally make good, only to let him walk away when he was finally on the cusp.
Those are about the only two trades of a star player for a prospect or prospects that actually worked out for the team losing the star player that I can think of. I am not including that horrible deal Omar Minaya made for Bartolo Colon back in the Expos dying days, as I think he was forced to do it.
These trades or trade proposals send nerds like us scrambling through the prospect lists to cobble several minor leaguers together in a fantasy deal that sends a veteran off to a contender. But they rarely work out. Look no further than last year’s salary dump orchestrated by Billy Eppler and Steve Cohen. None of those guys is going to contribute this year, and probably not in 2025 either.
I have three words for Stearns: Go For It. Get Garrett Crochet from the White Sox. Get Pete Fairbanks from Tampa as well. Pre-season, the farm system’s ranking was artificially inflated by those trades Eppler made, when they actually started playing ball, the truth has come out. Let someone else be beguiled by a last name, a comparison to Ohtani, or a triple-digit fastball. The door to October has cracked open. Kick it down.
In general, I agree with the idea that there are more misses than stars in these deals for prospects for established veterans But there have been HR hit by the teams acquiring the prospects.
Chris Archer was the star traded for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz. That worked out pretty good for the Rays
James Shields was the star traded for Fernando Tatis Jr. That worked out pretty good for the Padres
Larry Anderson was the established player traded for Jeff Bagwell. That worked out pretty good for the Astros
Doyle Alexander was the established player traded for John Smoltz. That worked out pretty good for the Braves
Billy Taylor was the established MLB player that was dealt for Jason Isringhausen. That worked out pretty good for the A’s
Larry Jackson was the established player that was dealt for Fergie Jenkins. That worked out pretty good for the Cubs
Brian: You win! However, unless the Mets are able to trade a contributing veteran and get a player or two that they can plug in right away and take off with, they should absolutely go for it this year.
This version of the team has a limited shelf life, a fact that at Memorial Day we were all happy about. But now, perhaps less so. Alonzo, Bader, Severino, Houser, Iglesias, JDM and a few lesser pieces will all be FA at the end of the year. Marte, Lindor, and McNeil will all be older. And besides Scott and perhaps Sproat, there is very little to count on from the farm in 2025. In other words, as long as they are a legit contender (and they are) they should maximize this opportunity.
This is the reason why it is more prudent to trade a free agent in the off season before his last season. Sometimes a team can get a veteran and a prospect.
Your point about maximizing the opportunity when you are a legitimate contender is spot on. At the end of the month they should assess their status as a legitimate contender.
Crochet and Fairbanks are good players to go after because they’ll still be here next year and allow the team to keep building on what they did this season. I really don’t care to see October baseball if it leads to stagnation or regression in subsequent years. The Mets did that to us in 2000, 2006, and 2015. That said, their non-rental status means that both of those pitchers will have a lot of suitors who can probably outbid the Mets.
MLB Trade Rumors has a piece that sources Jon Heyman’s column saying the Mets are in buyer mode at the moment.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/mets-trade-rumors-buyers-deadline-bullpen-help-relievers.html