Francisco Lindor’s hot stretch, Luis Severino versus the dregs, Jose Butto succeeds despite the walks

On Saturday’s broadcast, Gary Cohen and Keith Hernandez were discussing Francisco Lindor and how his season turned around once he moved to the top of the lineup. To his credit, Cohen wondered if it was purely coincidental, as Lindor was going to heat up regardless of where he hit in the order. Hernandez countered with the idea that there was something to the move, as Lindor was having the worst start of his career.

Unfortunately for Hernadez, not only wasn’t it the worst start of his career, it wasn’t even his worst start as a Met. Lindor’s low point of the year, past the first few games of the season, came on May 20 – three games after he moved to the leadoff spot – when he had a .616 OPS after 47 games and 209 PA. Back in his first year in Queens, Lindor had a .589 OPS after 46 games and 200 PA.

In his initial season as a Met, after that ugly start, Lindor posted an .833 OPS over his final 337 PA of the season. This year, over his last 232 PA, Lindor has a .939 OPS. He’s making good contact – only 40 Ks for a 17.2 K% – and while the hits are falling in for him with a .343 BABIP, Lindor has supplied power, with 28 XBH, including 10 HR.

It’s impossible to rule out that the move to the top of the order didn’t have an influence on how Lindor has played these past 50 games. It’s just nice to have a player be that productive for nearly one-third of the season. One additional note about this stretch – Lindor has been successful on 13 of his last 14 steal attempts. He’s truly doing it all right now.

CLEANING UP VERSUS THE BAD TEAMS – Luis Severino threw six shutout innings Saturday afternoon versus the Marlins to put them 30 games under .500 for the season. It was his third start this year against Miami and he’s also had two against Washington. In those five starts against NL East rivals below .500, Severino has a 2.45 ERA. He’s only made one start against the two teams in the division above .500 and allowed 2 ER in 5 IP against the Braves.

You can only pitch against the clubs the schedule has you face when it’s your turn to pitch. But Severino is 4-1 with a 2.65 ERA in 11 games versus teams below .500 for the year. Against the rest of the league, he’s 3-2 with a 5.08 ERA. Just something to keep in mind should the Mets make the playoffs this season.

HIT IT WHERE THEY AIN’T VERSUS HIT IT HARD – Jeff McNeil has four seasons in his career where he’s hit over .300, including 2022 when he hit .326 and won the batting title. He doesn’t strike out very much for a modern player and has the ability to hit to all fields. But throughout his career, McNeil has had his best results when he’s pulled the ball for power. He has a lifetime .289 AVG with a .779 OPS. But when he pulls the ball, McNeil has a .374 AVG with a 1.049 OPS.

But for most of the past two seasons, McNeil has struggled. He turned it on the last two months of 2023, when he posted a .163 ISO, compared to the .077 ISO the first four months of the year. This season, McNeil had a .572 ISO and a .086 ISO in his first 77 games. But since July 4, McNeil has a .920 OPS and a .325 ISO in his last 40 PA.

The hitting coaches have been focusing on McNeil hitting the ball hard, rather than trying to maximize his AVG. And the results have been better than we could have hoped. McNeil is not a slugger and he does not have the exit velocities of the best hitters on the team. But he can hit it hard enough. This month, McNeil has gone 8-17 on balls with an EV of 95 or greater. Five of those eight hits have gone for extra-bases, with two doubles and three homers. McNeil has an additional double this month but that one had an EV of 91.2 mph, which is still a solid-struck ball.

HIGH WALKS BUT A LOW WHIP – No one likes a pitcher with a high walk rate. And while 99 times out of a 100, a pitcher with a high walk rate will struggle, there are the rare pitchers that survive because they don’t give up many hits. And that’s been the tale of Jose Butto in his time in the majors the past two seasons. In 21 G and 88.2 IP, Butto has a 4.9 BB/9, which is not good. But he also has a 3.05 ERA in that span, which is quite good. And he does that thanks to a 5.8 H/9, which gives him a strong 1.184 WHIP despite the high walk totals.

Last night, Butto walked the leadoff man. And while a sacrifice and a wild pitch advanced him to third, Butto did not allow a hit and he kept the Marlins from scoring. Odds may be against Butto continuing to thrive with an elevated walk rate. But he’s shown the way to do it is by being stingy with the hits allowed. Still, it would be nice if he’d be stingy with the walks, too.

THE MAINSTAYS IN THE BULLPEN – In the month of July, relievers for the Mets have a 6.70 ERA in 45.2 IP, prompting many to call for the team to add multiple bullpen arms. But the damage has been done mostly by guys who either are no longer on the team or ones who will be gone once pitchers are activated from the IL.

The six relievers most likely to still be on the team when August 1 rolls around – Butto, Diaz, Houser, Maton, Nunez and Ottavino – have combined for a 3.44 ERA in 34 IP this month. And that’s with neither Houser nor Ottavino pitching particularly well. While the Mets are last in the league in reliever ERA here in July, the 3.44 mark of the core six guys would be 13th.