Conventional wisdom at the start of the season was that the Braves would challenge for a 100-win season while the Mets would challenge to finish with a winning record. If someone told you that Marcell Ozuna would have a .980 OPS, Chris Sale would be 13-3 with a 2.70 ERA, Reynaldo Lopez would have a 194 ERA+ and that their pen featured seven relievers with at least a 126 ERA+, with two guys with numbers in the 200s – yet the Mets would only be 2.5 games back of them in the standings, you would have told them they were out of their minds.
Yet here we are. The Braves have been hit by a massive amount of injuries and their big hitters who are healthy – outside of Ozuna – haven’t come close to numbers they put up last year. They’ve dropped three straight games and have a doubleheader later today against the Reds before heading to Queens for a four-game series against the Mets.
Baseball-Reference has the Braves with an 88.3% chance to make the playoffs, compared to a 47.1% chance for the Mets before the start of Wednesday’s games. Yet at the end of the upcoming series, the Mets have a chance to pass the Braves in the standings. Now, if someone offered you that bet, you should probably decline. But the fact that it’s even on the table is sort of mind-blowing.
So, too, is the fact that they have a chance to sweep the season series against the Yankees. While the Yankees weren’t quite as favored as the Braves coming into the year, Vegas Insider had their over/under line at 93.5, while the Mets had an 82.5 O/U.
Ultimately, we all want to win the World Series. But it’s not going to happen this year for the Mets. That’s okay – it hasn’t happened in nearly 40 years. You’ve got to enjoy the moments that the regular season gives you. A lot of people consider 2022 a failure because of the way that season ended. But a regular season with 101 wins is a fantastic thing that I hope to experience again one day.
And this year the hope is to sweep the Yankees and finish ahead of the Braves. That would be a tremendous accomplishment for the first year of the David Stearns/Carlos Mendoza regime.
Did anyone expect the Mets in July 24, 2015 to make it to the World Series? It’s not so unfashionable that they pass the Braves and I’d like to see them catch the Phillies. I’m still waiting for Ozuna to awake from his dream season at age 38. And, also waiting for Reynaldo Lopez to realize he isn’t that good. I knew Sale would have a good year the minute Boston gave up on him. I can’t blame Boston, but they got screwed, and it was obvious immediately. They were looking to get rid of Sale before he got hurt again, and then celebrated the offloading by signing Lucas Giolito while the Mets were in deep negotiation and rumored to have an agreement.
Usually the Mets have at least one free agent a year that can act like he’s the little old man on Monopoly. This year, the free agents didn’t get that luxury and it seems they are trying much harder. Let’s see what happens.
Point taken about 2015. Now to acquire the current version of Cespedes at the deadline, promote the current version of Conforto from the minors and welcome back the current versions of TDA and Wright from the IL
FWIW, Ozuna is in his age-33 season.
At the time the Mets called up Conforto, and traded for Cespedes, we were absolutely bonkers happy that they got Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson from the Braves. That lineup was a joke, and Bozo the Manager wasn’t playing Flores and Wright was usually hurt.
Now, the lineup is solid; the defense is solid; the rotation is lacking and nowhere near that all time great Mets rotation, and the bullpen now needs a little pick-me-up. The needs are different now. Crochet and Corbin!
What!? The Mets not win the World Series this year?!
Hey, there’s a 2 percent chance right now of that happening!
And it will go to 3 percent after the trade deadline!
Ya Gotta Believe!!
Well developed Brian. I really like your perspective on this one here. I think the one aspect you chose not to cover is your sense of buyer/seller/both/stand pat on the roster. My personal feeling is that the team is not going to divest pipeline talent unless a special situation happens to get more than a couple month rental unless it is low stakes. The moves Stearns is making are low investment with upside hope, like today’s signing of Jackie Bradley Jr. I dont see a Cespy in the offing this deadline.
In the game chatter yesterday, Metsense and I pondered what the offseason brings with a play for Soto. Using the Ohtani path of deferred salary, it’s possible to see Soto get 700M$ for 10-12 years, with much deferred on say a 25M$ annual salary. But that still leaves serious rotation work to attend to to acquire two top of the rotation types so that Senga can slip to #3 in the positional rank (who knows how many innings he will get, continued risk of injury etc). I asked whether the offseason would bring >1B$ in roster improvements.
I’ve advocated for being both a buyer and a seller at the deadline. Unfortunately, the Scott injury news makes that harder to do.
My opinion is that Severino’s trade value is greater than his actual value to the team moving forward. It’s possible that they could trade him, move Butto back to the rotation and also trade for a reliever to replace Butto. But they’re talking about how Butto isn’t stretched out. Well, start pitching him longer in relief between now and the deadline!! It’s not an insurmountable obstacle but it seems that’s how the org views it.
It’s still difficult for me to imagine that the Yankees won’t move heaven and earth to retain Soto. They are not overflowing with offensive talent and did they really trade for him with the idea of letting him walk – to the Mets! – after one season? The only thing that gives me pause is Soto, himself.
He’s the one who turned down the $440 million contract two years ago. Who knows what percent of that decision was the belief he could make more money and what percent was not wanting to commit to the Nationals. Is there a reason to think Soto doesn’t want to commit to the Yankees, either? I find that unlikely but I wouldn’t rule it out completely.
I’d put the chances of Soto ending up on the Mets at less than 5%.
The other thing to keep in mind is that a Soto deal essentially locks the Mets into Luxury Tax hell. A team that found religion this time last year by cutting salary and stocking the farm system – and then went on to the offseason that prioritized short-term deals – are they going to blow that up to chase Soto? Sure, it’s a possibility. Maybe that’s who they were being flexible for. But, again, I wouldn’t give that a big chance of happening.
I thought the deferred money does not count against the lux tax?
I know Soto and Judge are in the middle of a public bromance and so the likelihood of a Yankee departure seems low, but a lot of money could be the difference or put pressure on the Yankees to overspend !
The deferred money counts at NPV.
Ohtani signed a 10/$700 deal with $680 million deferred. While he makes $2 million in cash this year, he carries a $46 million luxury tax salary for the Dodgers
Just make the playoffs and then see what happens. Trade deadline should be interesting and Igor be exciting.
Brian:
Can you send me an email? I wanted to write you a short note, but I can’t find the email you sent me a few months ago
Please delete this after you have read it
Thanks
RJM
Found your email
Please delete this post (and the previous)
Bullpen moves
RHP Kodai Senga has been reinstated from the IL.
RHP Adrian Houser has been designated for assignment.
RHP Dedniel Núñez has been placed on the 15-day IL, retroactive July 24, with a right pronator strain.
RHP Eric Orze has been recalled from Triple-A Syracuse.
RHP Shintaro Fujinami has been reinstated from the IL and designated for assignment.
FLUSHING, N.Y., July 26, 2024 – The New York Mets today announced they have acquired RHP Ryne Stanek from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for minor league outfielder Rhylan Thomas. Stanek will join the major league team and a corresponding roster move will be announced later.
Edit – They also sold Cole Sulser to the Rays and DFAd Josh Walker to make room on the 40-man for Stanek.
FLUSHING, N.Y., July 28, 2024
–
The New York Mets today announced they have acquired former All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker from the Washington Nationals in exchange for minor league RHP Tyler Stuart. A corresponding 40-man roster move will be announced later today.
Winker, 30, is slashing .257/.374/.419 with 18 doubles, 11 homers, 45 RBI and 14 stolen bases in 101 games for Washington this year. He is tied for fifth in the NL with 53 walks and seventh in OBP (.374) this season and since May 25, he leads in the NL with a .404 OBP (min. 178 plate appearances).
The Buffalo, NY native is slashing .266/.390/.450 with 12 doubles, 10 homers and 36 RBI in 229 at-bats vs. right-handed pitching this season and for his career he’s hitting .278/.382/.468 with 98 doubles, 78 homers and 253 RBI vs. righties.
For his career as a pinch-hitter, Winker has hit .333/.452/.587 with five homers and 16 RBI in 75 at-bats. He has three doubles, two home runs and eight RBI in 16 career games at Citi Field.
The 6-2, 230-pounder is slashing .263/.370/.441 with 117 doubles, 92 homers and 311 RBI in 711 major league games with the Reds, Mariners, Brewers and Nationals. The left-handed hitting Winker was an All-Star in 2021 when he hit .305/.394/.556 with 32 doubles, 24 homers and 71 RBI in 110 games for Cincinnati.
Stuart, 24, was New York’s sixth-round selection in the 2022 First-Year Draft and was 3-7 with a 3.96 ERA in 17 starts this year for Binghamton (AA).
The Mets needed a left-handed bat for the lineup and Winkler solves that problem without mortgaging the future and he is inexpensive. Tylor Stuart was rating the, 17th prospect at MLB.com and 27th at Fangraphs in the Mets system. It was a fair deal for a rental player.
DJ Stewart optioned to Syracuse.
I liked Stuart as a prospect but he’s 24 in Double-A so I’m not losing any sleep about trading him. Hopefully Winker provides a strong bat down the stretch.