The New York Mets are truly on the precipice of being a really good team. There is still a good deal of gnashing of teeth over each specific game, but the Mets have demonstrated over the last two months they belong in the World Series conversation.
Last year, Billy Wagner got 284 votes for the Hall of Fame. Election in 2023 required 289 votes. Once a player reaches election percentages this high, the tractor beam of the Hall of Fame means election the following year.
How are these related, you may ask?
The Mets have the fourth-best offense in the National League year-to-date. The defense has been solid with a few areas for improvement. The starting pitching has been third best in the National League. Hey, this is a pretty good team. The issue is completely on the shoulders of the bullpen.
Wagner anchored the bullpen for three of the best seasons for the Mets since the 1980s. He was a shutdown pitcher like all Mets teams have had when they were making a World Series run. Wagner hopefully will be walking through the doors at Cooperstown next summer, but the absence of a Wagner-like closer hurts the Mets significantly for 2024.
Edwin Diaz in 2022 was exactly who the Mets need in 2024. As Joura outlined yesterday, the Mets bullpen has been in constant flux so far this season. This is a definite plus for how David Stearns is going to manage the team. There are a variety of theories about closers, and whether it can be committee, or carries some mystique.
All the Mets runs have had Tug McGraw, Jesse Orosco, or Randy Myers, or Armando Benitez, or Wagner, or Jeurys Familia. The Mets will either need Diaz, or someone else, to step forward or Stearns will need to reassess going out and getting someone to shut the door. Interesting number of left-handers.
Stearns may or may not recognize the trend of shutdown closer to World Series chances, and frankly skepticism is warranted. Can Stearns just “find” someone on the open market? The trade deadline is Tuesday July 30 at 6 pm. Seven of the top ten closers in bWAR play for non-playoff teams. Tanner Scott has been the most dominant reliever for the last two seasons by a wide margin, and he is a free agent after this year. That seems like an easy go-get.
Other top targets include Seattle’s Andres Munoz, Kirby Yates in Texas, Mason Miller from the A’s, the Nats’ Kyle Finnegan, and Carols Estevez from the Angels. All these pitchers will post better marks than the Mets relievers – even if Diaz gets the ship righted.
Should Stearns be shopping for a starting pitcher? It wouldn’t hurt.
The Mets did trade for Jesse Winker this weekend, so clearly Stearns is a subscriber, and takes these pages seriously. With Tyrone Taylor and Jose Iglesias both playing very well, and Jeff McNeil hitting better the last month, the offense has carried the Mets from 24-35 record on June 2, to a 55-50 mark through Sunday July 28.
Winker’s acquisition is critical with the loss of Starling Marte. The performance of the replacements, DJ Stewart and Tyrone Taylor, has been not very good to downright bad considering the premium offensive position right field needs to be. Winker, just performing at career norms, would raise the positional OPS nearly 150 points, and that usually translates into about 30 more runs over 200 plate appearances. That’s about three wins, and when the Mets are in the playoff chase, the difference between 84 wins and 86 wins can be just enough. Many fans overlook just how damaging underperforming in high offense positions can be. Winker is a fine player, but not a superstar, but he can drastically change the Mets fortunes, just by not being terrible.
All in all, the Mets fortunes will rest on the bullpen improvement. Perhaps Stearns was struggling with acquiring the right arms, so he added offense. Unfortunately, the current bullpen is well below replacement thus far, and late in games, when there is no time left to rally, teams cannot afford to give up the lead. The closers are out there, so maybe, just maybe, Billy Wagner equivalent *can* walk through that door. We’ll find out in about 24 hours.
Let’s go Mets.
Scratch Estevez from the list – the Phillies got him.
All reports are that the markets for both RP and SP are very overheated. My opinion is that the pen will be ok when the guys return from the IL. But they need starters. Should they overpay to get one? I can see the case for either side.
The Mets primary target should be the bullpen because an impact starting rental pitcher would be too costly. If Stearns could obtain a controllable impact starting pitcher then I would give it some thought. Let’s face it, an impact starting pitcher will not get them into the World Series because the pitching staff is not good enough to grind it out for three rounds of the playoffs. Butto is better than Megill in the rotation. Therefore replace Butto with a high leverage reliever and for good measure and obtain another good reliever to the mix.