Now that the trade deadline has passed, it seemed like a good time to check in with Chris Flanders on the state of the Mets. Below is our email correspondence on some issues facing the Mets both now and the near-future.
Brian: For many years, you’ve advocated for the Mets to do a full-scale rebuild but they’ve never done one. They had a chance with David Stearns coming aboard but he opted to go for a potential playoff spot, complete with a payroll that will likely come with a draft-pick penalty. And then this year, the Mets traded prospects – albeit not ones likely to be impact players – at the deadline.
I’m curious how you feel about where the Mets are and the decisions they’ve made since the end of last season. Also, what do you see happening over the next 12 months?
Chris: I have indeed argued for a proper rebuild, preferring that to “rebuilding for it,” which as we have seen has been a lousy pathway. The purpose for that feeling is not just to rebuild for the sake or process of it, but rather to reset the prime production years for a lot of the players. For example, I don’t think it makes sense to spend crazy for one or two free agents only to have a poor cast of characters otherwise.
So where does that take us for today? I’ve been ready to pull the plug on ‘24 for some time. My sense is that would still have been the right move, but after June’s torrid run, it simply would have been so bad of a move that it would have alienated a vast proportion of the fan base. Had they not waited so long, I don’t think it would have mattered that much. I understand why Stearns did not call for a sell off.
As far as I’m concerned, what the Mets ended up doing was as close to not making waves as could be structured. I don’t consider the traded people as any loss whatsoever, so it doesn’t feel like Stearns is breaking the promise of building a strong team from the bottom up, and the top down. The ‘24 Mets are in fend for themselves mode. That feels about right to me.
So, let me ask you, do you believe in the “you can’t rebuild in New York” thinking?
Brian: I don’t believe in that. It’s a media creation, right up there with “Player X” can’t play in New York. I’m an East Coast snob but those things are a bridge too far for me. My belief is that if you’re honest with fans, they’ll support any reasonable plan, especially rebuilding.
This season has been playing with house money for me. My expectations were an 80-82-win team heading into the year. Now, I’d revise that upward. I was fine with the moves Stearns made at the deadline, even if I would have preferred a SP upgrade, or a sell-high move with Luis Severino, or both.
Things change with the farm system in a very short amount of time. With the injuries to Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert, along with the poor Triple-A results of Blade Tidwell, there may not have been an untouchable prospect in the system, assuming for the right guy, at the deadline. Perhaps people would put Brandon Sproat in that category but his Double-A results were not better than Tidwell’s.
Would you have been in favor of trading prospects for a SP, say Blake Snell, to make a run at the pennant? With the injury-marred seasons of the Braves, Dodgers and Phillies – it seems like the NL is there for the taking. I don’t pretend to know what it would have taken to get Snell. But I hope Stearns didn’t dismiss it out of hand and found out what the cost was.
Chris: I’m really happy to hear that. I agree completely, if you are honest with the fan base and have a plan that you can develop, the fans will come. Maybe with the injuries there are less moveable prospect pieces, but I think Stearns nibbled on the edges to do a little something without egregiously going back on the not trading prospects. To me this year is treading water, and I’m ok with that even though the return for Severino, Garrett, Alonso, even Diaz would have really been something for returns.
As for Snell, there is a package of players I would have been amenable to trade for, but they all would have been 30 or deeper in the pipeline given San Francisco wanted to pawn off the whole contract. In that event, a couple way down prospects would have been fine with me, and having 1.5 years of Snell would have been nice. It would have also signaled watch out for ‘25 because the train is coming.
Let’s change tack a little. With the team playing with house money as you say, and a lot of payroll coming off the docket for next year, what kinds of moves do you see the team making in the offseason, and do you see the moves aimed at a serious move for the post season?
Brian: The way I see it, next year’s team is tied to the results from this year’s squad. My take has been that the Mets were going to try next season to get under the tax penalty that causes the draft pick to drop 10 spots. If, somehow, they were to make the playoffs this year – especially if they win a series or two – how do you justify having a belt-tightening offseason?
With Jeff McNeil’s resurgence, they’re set at 2B, SS, C, LF and wherever Mark Vientos plays, whether that’s 1B or 3B. That leaves four spots that have a question mark. Do you figure Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio fill one of them? Does Starling Marte fill another? Is Stearns happy with Tyrone Taylor as the team’s starting CF? Do you want a full-time DH or do you want to rotate a bunch of players thru the spot, giving the “half a day off,” as it were?
Do you try to go with a 6-man rotation from the jump? If so, that means two SP, assuming Sean Manaea opts out of his contract and it’s impossible to figure that he won’t. Is it possible that they won’t have to do any major expenditure on the bullpen?
For me, it’s too soon to contemplate the offseason in any detailed way.
One last question for you: As one of Pete Alonso’s biggest backers throughout the years, is there enough season left for him to salvage his chance to cash in with a big contract in free agency? My limit on him right now would be a three-year deal, with the AAV seemingly shrinking by the day. It almost seems like he’s destined to sign a one-year deal to rebuild his value. Is there any other way it might play out for Alonso?
Chris: Interesting you see that the offseason is a close connection with the outcome of this season. I really have been viewing this year’s team as somewhat independent of future plans, including ‘25. Agreed it is too early to go overboard on predictions, but I get the feeling there will be considerable spending going on.
As for Alonso, every day gets more and more worrisome about a J.D. Martinez type future. I definitely believed Pete would snap out of things and rescue about an average season, but each game gets me more concerned. He has the skills and capacity to deliver, but the harder he tries the worse he gets. You can see that in every K as he walks back to the dugout shaking his head. I think it’s all between his ears and a desire to be The Guy that he’s trying to hit a 6-run homer every at bat. As it seems less and less likely a team will come up with 5, 6, or 7 years, I do wonder if a pillow contract is in the mix, but that comes with a lot of unknowns for him at a time when there is now documented decline. There is time to change that narrative for this season, but he better get things figured out really fast. I would be at a contract of 3/$26M, for a $78M total. He might get a bit more for AAV but if Alonso’s camp uses Freddie Freeman as a comp, it would be hard to justify.
Personally – I’m grateful that the mets decided against a full rebuild. They have the financial resources that they should never have to do that so long as management is stable and has a clear plan to which they stick. This has been an enjoyable season – outside of May – and is shaping up to be an exciting final 6 weeks where the mets essentially control their own destiny. And while lots of money comes off the books next year, I can’t imagine a scenario where they are fielding a team for much under a quarter billion dollars. 2 impact free agents (soto and burnes?) and they will be at that level anyway.
The initial Luxury Tax threshold next year will be $241 million. The draft pick threshold is $40 million above that, so the Mets would need to be under $281 million to avoid that.
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax
Spotrac estimates the team’s current Luxury Tax payroll at $347 million and their tax bill at $97 million.
For 2025, they have $121.5 million for six players, although one of them is Manaea, who will likely opt out of his $14 million deal
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/new-york-mets/tax/_/year/2025/sort/tax_total
50 mil for Soto
30 mil for Burnes
22 mil for Alonso
20 mil for Manaea
10 mil for an Alvarez extension
8 mil to pick up the Maton option
easy to see this roster approaching that $281 pretty quick.
I do like that Brazoban is a cheap set up, and we can keep Alvarez on his rookie contract along with Vientos. I can see moving Marte to full time DH with Soto in RF. Who plays center? Tyrone full time? Or do they bring back Bader for another go? The bullpen has potential to be good and cheap with Nunez, Danny Young, Garrett etc.
I did a little research a few days ago:
27 players under contract and a very young team. If your infield is Vientos, McNeil, Lindor, Baty, Mauricio, Acuna, it’s set.
Outfield of Taylor, Nimmo, Marte, Gilbert, leaves room for one free agent. Do you trust Soto to play hard for 14 years?
As for the finances, putting in minimum wage for pre-arb guys and small raises for the Arb guys, I came to $171MM. That leaves $70MM, or plenty of money to use correctly.
Nice read guys. Thanks. Prior to their big run I was advocating an Astros type sell off where they clean house, suffer through a few 100 loss seasons and then come back as a perennial contender. With their June/July resurgence, they went back to cautious buying without sacrificing the farm system. I would have liked a better starting pitcher but maybe Blackburn will continue to surprise. The reality is that there did not seem to be a Cespedes type hitter to bring in as a difference maker so I have no issue with picking up Jesse winker and hoping for the best. They filled needs and as we’ve all discussed they can score runs.
Pete does need to snap out of his funk and I’m shocked that they are just not going back to old videotape and bringing him to where he needs to be and find it hard to believe but he just got really old and can’t drive in any runs anymore. What concerns me is that nowadays first base is not the dumping ground for players who can’t play elsewhere and it has evolved into a much more skilled position. There’s no evidence that anyone on the current roster can easily slide over and be a good defensive player.
With lots of money coming off at the end of the season with expiring contracts and the extra dollars they are Paying for players they no longer have I do like a 2025 as a time that they will continue to spend money as Brian says try to get under the salary cap. Still hoping for a wild card and a decent run into the playoffs to energize the fan base
Chris, if you really believe Pete is pressing, watch this video. He is quite comfortable with his accomplishments – after all, he was an All-Star.
https://sny.tv/articles/mets-drop-pete-alonso-lineup-august-2024
I porefer to watch him at the plate instead of the jibberish he says to a reporter. Every K where he swings at a ball a foot off the plte and below the the knees shows him anguished on the lonely walk back to the dugout. If hes happy of his walk year numbers, then he is on a island all alone
I’m surprised to read this from you because this is first hand feedback into how he feels. Yes, after striking out, we all are disappointed; no one goes back to the dugout clicking their heels. But, when you are seeing the accumulation of the results, are you interested in trying to correct the problem? Alonso’s response is: ‘what problem?’
Unfortunately I think a lot of what ails Pete is between his ears. Everyone cleans up and says nothing to reporters. The fact is hes dropping in the line up not because his play is great. Denial is a strong emotion. The facts are that his major metrics are all going south. If you compare his past few seasons woth Freddy Freeman’s theres no comparison in trend. The fact is Pete is looking for a 5-7 year contract with the past three seasons, including this on the decline. Call it what you want, but Im not signing on for 5+ years with the current trend, no matter how comfortable he may be with the production. It pains me to say this because I love Pete and want him to break every Mets hitting record that exists.
Of course I wish for the Mets to make it to the playoffs, and it would be nice if they didn’t go “one-and-done”; that will make 2024 a resounding success in my book. I’m also looking forward in which direction(s) Stearns (and Cohen) will approach 2025. I’m pretty sure though, that the end result for next year will be no major signings, and no luxury tax. So no Soto, and probably no Alonso. Probably no Manaea either.
With no major signings, I see a 2025 squad with Vientos at 1B, Baty at 3B, and Marte as at least a part time DH. I also see the Mets cut their ties with Bader & Martinez & Severino also. It will probably be a younger and weaker team then what they have now. So again, I see Stearns earning his money next year for that not to happen.
I see that also, but not completely. I don’t have a problem with that because Mauricio and company need to play and show us what they have, but I also see one position open and the Mets having the money to fill it. Maybe not Juan Soto, but another good player makes sense and at least one good pitcher as we hope for Roki Sasaki and want to see the kids (Gilbert, Williams, Clifford) get to the majors.
Gentlemen, always enjoy the virtual back and forth.
I agree with Footballhead’s take.