Sean Manaea turns it up a notch, Francisco Lindor leads NL in fWAR, Pete Alonso’s August

After starting June off with back-to-back clunkers – a combined 11 ER in 9.1 IP – Sean Manaea has been outstanding. He’s pitched in 13 games since those rough outings and has a 2.83 ERA while limiting opposing batters to a .584 OPS. And the Mets are 10-3 in those Manaea starts. Among the 74 qualified pitchers in this span, Manaea’s 2.83 ERA is the 11th-best in the majors.

He’s pitched seven innings in four of his last five starts and has a 2.61 ERA in that stretch of 31 IP. So many things jump out at you in this period. Manaea’s had some issues with walks this year but in his last five games, he’s allowed just 7 BB for a 2.0 BB/9. And it’s not just walks he’s limiting as he’s allowed just 2 HR in those 31 IP. Manaea is also piling up the strikeouts, as he has a 10.7 K/9. High strikeouts combined with few walks and homers leads to a great FIP. And Manaea’s FIP is 21 points below his ERA, with a 2.40 mark.

Manaea’s season turned around last year once he added a sweeper to his repertoire. And once again, it’s been a very effective pitch for him. In 108 PA that ended with a sweeper thrown, Manaea has held hitters to a .182 AVG and a .206 SLG. Additionally, 49 of the 99 ABs this season have ended in a strikeout when Manaea has thrown the sweeper. He’s essentially shelved his regular slider here in his last five starts to feature the sweeper as his lone breaking pitch

And eliminating his slider seems to have helped his changeup, too. In his last five games, batters are just 1-12 against Manaea’s change, with the hit being a single.

A free agent after the 2023 season, Manaea wasn’t in high demand and had to settle for a two-year contract, with the second year being a player option. There’s no doubt he’ll opt out of that deal and become a free agent again. He should have a robust market this time and it will be curious to see what kind of deal he lands. It will also be interesting to see how interested the Mets are to lock him up to a long-term contract.

LINDOR THROWS HIS HAT INTO MVP RACE – One thing that’s become popular for fans in the 21st Century is to chant M-V-P whenever their star player is performing well. It’s not something that appeals to me, perhaps due to Mets fans doing it for Carlos Delgado back in 2008, a season that ended with him posting a 2.4 fWAR.

We heard those M-V-P chants in San Diego last night for Francisco Lindor, during his two-homer game. The thing is, Lindor is a very credible candidate, unlike Delgado all those years ago. It’s an uphill battle for Lindor, as he’s facing someone with a chance to post the first-ever 50-HR, 50-SB season, as well as a player with an outside shot at the Triple Crown.

Ultimately, Lindor’s case rests on how much the voters value defense. The two players mentioned previously are both DHs and bring nothing to the table defensively. Lindor is a Gold Glove-level defender at the most important defensive position. That’s a pretty big edge for him.

Lindor currently leads all NL players with a 6.5 fWAR. And it’s important to note that fWAR uses Statcast numbers in their defensive rating, the most advanced system out there. The electorate is much-more open to numbers like fWAR now than they were a dozen years ago when Miguel Cabrera’s Triple Crown season was rewarded with an MVP, even though Mike Trout had a 2.8-edge in fWAR. Lindor doesn’t hold a huge edge in fWAR. To have a chance to claim the MVP, he’ll have to put more distance than the current 0.2 he’s ahead of Shohei Ohtani. And he’ll have to hope Marcell Ozuna doesn’t win the Triple Crown.

CARRY THE NEWS, YOUNG’S A DUDE – Despite three stints in the minors this year, Danny Young has appeared in 29 games for the Mets this season and performed well, with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.207 WHIP, while limiting batters to a .616 OPS against. Since his last recall, Young has a 1.62 ERA in 16.2 IP, with 23 Ks. While he’s a lefty who’s very tough on LHB, Young fares quite well without the platoon advantage. In 76 PA versus RHB, he’s limited them to a .659 OPS. While Young has 10 appearances of two outs or fewer, he’s also recorded four outs or more six times, including three two-inning stints in his last 16 appearances.

BABIP GODS SMILE ON ALONSO HERE IN AUGUST – Much was made about Pete Alonso’s .205 BABIP last year. To be sure, Alonso has never produced a high BABIP, but that mark was 69 points below his career average in the category from 2019-2022. Flash forward to this year and Alonso had a .269 BABIP thru the end of July. But here in August, he sports a .390 BABIP, which has helped him to an .870 OPS. It’s an unusual stretch, one marked by the hits falling in more so than being defined by power. We’re still waiting for that extended stretch with a four-digit OPS for Alonso. Here’s hoping he delivers it in the season’s final month.

CHASING AWAY THOSE SECOND-HALF BLUES – While the Mets are still in the Wild Card race here in late August, it seems to me that many fans are disappointed with the team’s play here after the All-Star break. My opinion is that there are three things driving that disappointment. The first is that the Mets didn’t have an extended hot streak like the Padres and Diamondbacks did. The second was dropping series to both the Angels and A’s, two teams where a sweep seemed like a possibility. Finally, there was the embarrassment in Seattle, where the Mets scored just one run in three games, while the pitchers surrendered 22 runs.

But the fact is that the Mets have a better winning percentage in the second half (.543) than the .516 mark they had before the break. The team has a 3.87 ERA here in the second half, compared to the 4.23 mark before the All-Star a break, a stretch that included the low-scoring month of April, as well as the first two months of the year when Citi Field was playing like an extreme pitcher’s park.

And despite getting swept by the Mariners, the Mets are 10-8 in the second half against teams with a .500 or better record. And that doesn’t include a win against St. Louis, an extra road game thrown in during a stretch that already had three series. While the Cardinals were two games over .500 at the time of the game, they’re now 64-65.

The Mets are playing well and they still have 17 games against teams ahead of them in the NL, which provides an opportunity to gain ground on the teams they’re chasing.