31 games to go

There is one month left in the season, and the New York Mets are 68-63, a pace for 84 wins, which is also on pace for missing the playoffs by 2 games or so.  Historically, the 86-win mark is the number a team needs to hit, but the team talent from pre-season forward has always tilted to a .500 club, or thereabouts.  84 wins is just above that, which is an improvement, but the bell tolls. “Wait ‘til next year!” always has issues, and bigger issues considering the Mets are the oldest team in the league.

Is there anything the Mets can do to press the Braves and the Padres and the Diamondbacks?

The Mets just split four with the Padres, and they led 2-0 in the 8^th and blew that game to avoid the 3-1 series and pick up two games on the Padres wild card lead. That game was emblematic of Mets manager Carlos Mendoza not being very good at pitching staff management.  This includes mostly slow hooks, and poor reliever management of not being able to identify best matchups and pitcher overuse.

That has been the theme all season. The bullpen is not blameless.  The poor performance is not all “put in a position to fail”. But even Edwin Diaz’ early season struggles were readily identifiable from looking at his pitching peripherals, including velocity and movement and release point.  If someone sitting at home can look these things up on baseball savant, then the Mets certainly should have smarter people in their employ.

There are not many ways to cut the data that does not result in “Mets have basically dropped 5 games to bad bullpen work”. That’s not in the specific like yesterday’s games, but how they have performed overall.  Only two teams have been worse: the Colorado Rockies and the Miami Marlins, who are both obviously terrible teams, barely trying.

This should wave a massive red flag to GM David Stearns regarding his coaching staff. Mendoza may be getting bad pitching coach advice, or even bad analytical advice, but the buck has to stop with him. Given his results, he should decide to listen to someone different.

Five wins – the Mets, *with average performance* would be 73-58.  The Mets have gained nine games in the standings in the last two months, so it is not all terrible.

The Mets current playoff odds, depending on your preferred website, are 20-25%. Unfortunately, the schedule cannot be favorable for the Mets. The Diamondbacks and Padres both have a good lead, and unfortunately do not have a slew of games to play each other remaining.  Just the last three games of the season, and the Mets could be eliminated by then, so everyone gets to rest. There is no “hope they eliminate one another.”

That means the Mets must chase down the Atlanta Braves. They trail by 2.5 games, and have three games left, so technically, the Mets control their own destiny (as of this writing). For that matter, they trail the Phillies by 8.5, and still have seven games with Philly, so they can just win all those games.

The Mets’ remaining schedule is difficult – Phillies, the aforementioned Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox, Milwaukee Brewers. Half of the remaining games are against teams currently in the playoff positions.  By contrast, the Braves have eleven such games.  The Padres have only nine, and three of those are likely to be against a Dodgers’ team resting starters.

The only way the Mets make the playoffs is to go bonkers at the plate. They will need to do better than about 20-11. Even at that the Braves going 17-14 holds the Mets off.

Despite a likely “also ran” finish for the Mets, Stearns has done an admirable job. It is unfortunate Jesse Winker has not really panned out at the plate and that Kodai Senga pitched about half a game. Jose Iglesias has been excellent, and even Jeff McNeil managed a stellar post-all-star game performance to make his season numbers passable.

But there is a chance – more than twenty percent!

Let’s go Mets!