With the return of Starling Marte, the Mets are trying to find playing time for six players among three positions. In addition to Marte, there’s Harrison Bader, Jose Iglesias, Jeff McNeil, Tyrone Taylor and Jesse Winker looking for playing time at CF, RF and 2B. Here are the playing time and production for these six players since Marte returned on August 18:
HB – 20 PA, .372 OPS
JI – 23 PA, .707 OPS
SM – 22 PA, .524 OPS
JM – 22 PA, .641 OPS
TT – 20 PA, .668 OPS
JW – 18 PA, .778 OPS
First off, kudos to Carlos Mendoza for finding 18-23 PA for all six players in this stretch.
My initial takeaway is that Bader is getting far too many PA. Ideally, he’s used as a defensive replacement without coming to bat. And we need to see more from Marte. Maybe a 60-40 playing time split for Winker-Marte, compared to the 45-55 split that it has been so far between those two. And perhaps a pinch more playing time for Iglesias, too, even though he has the most PA of the group in this span.
Winker drawing the short stick and it doesn’t make any sense. He is having a terrific year, 122 OPS+, with an OPS against RHP of 808. WInker has been contributing in his limited time. He has a walk off HR and last night a SF RBI. Marte against LHP of a 864 OPS. Ideally they should be in a platoon.
Bader should get less starts and less AB and Iglesias should get more.
Mendoza has been good with the playing time and I’m confident he will adjust.
Looking at the remaining schedules, and with what is sizing up as Mets vsBraves for final WC spot, the Mets need to finish this trip extremely strong. The Twins gave done the Braves no favors, and tonight the Braves have a major advantage in pitching match up. If the Mets are 3 or more back after the Braves finish up the Phillies series this Sunday, well, things will look bleak. Braves s Duke from there on out very soft outside of 4 with Dodgers in Atlanta.
I observed in a recent column here at Mets360, by Chris D (“31 days to go”), that although I didn’t quite fully understand his argument about the specific problems caused by the bullpen and/or its use, I was in agreement with the basic premise. I think
I decided to post a response here
This is the first time since 1988 that I’ve seen more than about 15 Mets games in a season. And the one thing I can say is that I have been extremely unimpressed by Mendoza’s handling of the pen. But what the do I know.
My other noteworthy observation is that in the responses to that article, nearly everyone evaluated what the Mets would have to do to gain a WC spot, that is, what they’d have to do to control their own fate and/or how that would be impossible given the easy remaining schedules for ARI, SDP and ATL, and the difficulty of the Mets’ own remaining schedule
I have a different POV. Even if the Mets were somehow able to squeak into the post-season, the chances of them actually going all the way are likely 0% to 3 decimal places. They simply don’t have the pitching
Also, from June 2nd (I think) to the penultimate game before the AS break (July… something), the Mets were the class of the National League. At 25-10, they had the best winning percentage, and scored the most runs. Only ARI was anywhere near their WP and RS, that is, ARI was within 10 runs, but had given up about 30 more runs than the Mets did in that time period
However, for the combined rest of the season so far, their record is 44-53. Not a team that anyone in their right mind would wager them winning the WS
If you want to understand the cause of death, let’s break the season into 2 parts – up to and including 8/2/24, and everything after
At the end of 8/2, Mets were 58-51 after beating LAA in the first game of their 3 game match, and 11-12 record after
LAA, OAK and SEA have a combined record since then of 27-38. However, in this time period, they beat the Mets 7 of 8 games, so subtracting their results against NYM, their combined record is 20-37
And subtracting the Mets’ record against these 3 teams, they’d be 10-5 instead of 11-12
Especially crushing is how SEA stuck a boot where that there sun don’t shine;
without those three games where they brutalized NYM, their record would be 6-13 instead of 9-13, and runs scored against runs allowed would be 60/92 instead 82/93
Thus, as a consequence of the reasoning in this rather lengthy post, I infer that the only way NYM could make it to the post season is for one (or more) of SDP, ARI and ATL to tank, with the Mets doing somewhat better than tanking
Regardless, their post season, if it happened at all, would end almost immediately
Jett Williams activated tonight!
For Binghamton
Egads. It seems that he lined a single on the first pitch leading off the game and then “sombreroed” w/ four. That he’s playing at all is a bonus since he stated that he was done for the year. I bet he was misquoted as that seemed a bit odd when that news came out.
I doubt he was misquoted. It’s probably more likely that a young guy who’s never been hurt overreacted to his situation. Regardless, the main thing is that he gets a couple of weeks to see real pitching. Still hope he plays in the AFL, too.
Interested note:
TBR has the best winning percentage in 1-run games at 25-14
Next is NYM at 24-15, and BOS has the same WP as NYM with 16-10
Found this article – addressing the one-run game effect on W/L records – at baseball prospectus:
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/18151/baseball-therapy-one-run-winners-good-or-lucky/
Concerning the old baseball chestnut:
“Good teams win one-run games”
I assert that good teams win more games than they lose, regardless of how many more runs they score than their opponent¹
For those looking for the Reader’s Digest version of the BP article², here’s an excerpt from the last two paragraphs:
The problem is that one-run games actually happen in several different ways, and winning them would rely on the abilities of different parts of the roster.
Baseball is a game with a lot of randomness in it already, and that randomness overwhelms the effect of skill. Based on this, I wouldn’t recommend reading much into a team’s one-run record.
If your goal today is to win a game by one run, may I suggest the most predictable way of all to ensure that it happens: wear white pants.
1. This statement nearly qualifies for what we non-normies call a tautology
2. I didn’t realize this before this post, but the BP article is dated 8/27/2012
It’s currently 7:32 pm on the West
10:32 on the East
Sunday, 9/1/24
So, I had the PHI/ATL game on in the background
Wondering how pungent it must be sitting so close to sweaty PHI Phans
Philberts won 3-2 in the bottom of 11th
Philcobs were jumping up and down hysterically like they had just won the WS…
What is the point of this story?
What information pertains?
The thought that life could be better
Is woven indelibly
Into our hearts
And our brains
Paul Simon – “Train In The Distance”
ATL lost, Mets 1 back for 3rd WC
So
At the end of play on 5/29/2024
NYM were 2 games ahead of COL and 3 games ahead of MIA for the worst record in the NL
12 NL teams had a better record
At the end of today’s play on 9/1/2024
At 50-31 since the dreadful low point of the season
The Mets have the second best record from 5/29 to 9/1
13 NL teams have worse records over that same period
Only team with a better record is ARI
One game better at 51-30
ESPN reported yesterday that after Lindor’s 4th inning HR at Guaranteed Fate Park, audience was heard chanting “MVP”
In terms of OPS+, Lindor is having the best year of his career at 134
Previous season high of 132 in 2018
Lindor’s career lowest OPS+ was his first season in NYC (2021) at 100
Lifetime OPS+ is 119
Also interesting – Lindor has won 2 Gold Gloves and 3 Silver Sluggers, but never in same season
So, here I am on the light rail at 1 am typing on something which keeps accusing me of having thick digits
It’s gonna be 97F later today and rail will leave me about 65 miles from the coast
So, I decided to read the chatter from yesterday’s 7-2 win over the Bosox
Paraphrasing here
Person G says
Iggy’s from communist Cuba
Person B says
Colombia and Venezuela – that’s like NY & NJ, right?
To which Person G says
I Quit
It’s hard to believe but that got an actual chuckle outta me
It happens
I don’t LOL
When something is extremely funny, I SWF
Snot went flying
FWIW – It was Person N who said that about Iglesias, the second time he corrected Person G in a matter of minutes. I tried to make the first mistake – saying someone who actually was from Colombia but claiming they were from Venezuela – seem not so bad. But G was inconsolable at that point.