How will the Mets utilize their outfielders in the final 28 games?

A lot was made in the offseason about how David Stearns was going to prioritize defense. Which sounds great, at least until you have to watch those guys brought in for their defense actually hit. It typically doesn’t go well. Yesterday afternoon in Phoenix, with the team having had a crushing defeat the night before and desperately needing a win, they lined up with perhaps their poorest defensive outfield. It was Jesse Winker in LF, Brandon Nimmo in CF and Starling Marte in RF.

Let’s use FRV here, which is Statcast’s comprehensive fielding statistic, which includes throwing, arm and range, expressed in terms of runs, either above or below average. Here’s how the three Mets OF starters have fared in FRV this year at the position they played yesterday, with full-season numbers, regardless of team:

Winker – (-3)
Nimmo – 0
Marte – (-8)

Now, it may have been a modern-day take on Davey Johnson playing Kevin Mitchell at shortstop, with a fly ball pitcher like Sid Fernandez on the mound. Yesterday’s starter was David Peterson, whose 52.6 GB% was the highest mark on the staff, which made outfield defense less important. Or perhaps it was the realization that Harrison Bader has a .518 OPS in his last 95 PA since the end of his six-week hot streak and his bat shouldn’t be in the lineup.

Either way, the decision to maximize offense, rather than defense, gets a thumbs-up from me.

Winker appeared in his first game with the Mets on July 28. The team has played 30 games in that stretch and gone 15-15. That may sound like a disappointment but consider that 18 of those 30 games were against teams .500 or better and that 17 were on the road. It hasn’t been an easy schedule, the Mets lost some heartbreaking games in the late innings and played a weak Oakland team at the exact wrong time – while they were hot. Take all of that into consideration and a .500 mark isn’t too bad.

Yet the key is how to play better than that in the remaining 28 games.

My opinion is that you ask for longer outings from all pitchers, including relievers, whenever it makes sense to do so. And you stop playing guys who can’t hit. Here’s how the team’s hitters have performed in the last 30 games:

Name	G	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	fWAR
Francisco Lindor	30	136	5.90%	22.80%	0.219	.385	.320	.360	.539	.384	153	1.8
Pete Alonso	30	127	11.00%	35.40%	0.288	.328	.252	.339	.541	.373	145	0.7
Brandon Nimmo	26	112	11.60%	18.80%	0.134	.250	.216	.304	.351	.289	88	0.2
Mark Vientos	26	110	6.40%	32.70%	0.284	.322	.255	.309	.539	.360	136	0.7
J.D. Martinez	27	107	11.20%	28.00%	0.196	.288	.228	.321	.424	.324	112	0.2
Jeff McNeil	25	94	7.40%	18.10%	0.21	.306	.272	.362	.481	.365	139	0.7
Francisco Alvarez	25	80	5.00%	32.50%	0.066	.224	.158	.200	.224	.190	21	-0.3
Jose Iglesias	20	73	6.80%	17.80%	0.061	.315	.258	.315	.318	.283	84	0.2
Harrison Bader	27	73	5.50%	19.20%	0.123	.204	.185	.274	.308	.264	71	0.1
Jesse Winker	24	70	4.30%	17.10%	0.106	.333	.288	.314	.394	.307	100	0.2
Tyrone Taylor	25	62	4.80%	22.60%	0.123	.395	.298	.355	.421	.340	123	0.4
Luis Torrens	13	39	10.30%	20.50%	0.029	.259	.200	.282	.229	.238	54	0.1
Starling Marte	8	30	0.00%	40.00%	0.069	.412	.241	.241	.310	.238	54	-0.1
Ben Gamel	7	18	22.20%	16.70%	0	.364	.286	.444	.286	.349	129	0

Here are the things that jump out to me from the above chart:

Nimmo has not been good in this span. And his poor play stretches back to the start of the second half. But there’s at least some reason for optimism here, as he’s been playing better lately. In his last 11 games, Nimmo has an .852 OPS, despite a .286 BABIP. It’s not a case of the hits falling in. Instead, it’s that he’s not striking out as much as before, as he has a 12.8 K%. And five of his 12 hits have gone for extra-bases.

Both Iglesias and Torrens have come back to earth.

And while it’s only been eight games, Marte has not been good. He was having a nice bounce-back year offensively before going on the IL but a 54 wRC+ since his return is dreadful. And he hasn’t helped himself with all of the strikeouts, either. It’s tough to make judgments based on 30 PA but we’re at the point of the season where we can’t play the long game and wait for regression. Besides, while Marte’s K% may regress, it’s a near-certainty he won’t carry a .412 BABIP forward, either.

And amidst these struggling hitters, we see Taylor with a .776 OPS and a 123 wRC+ in these last 30 games. He should absolutely be above Bader in the pecking order the rest of the season. And my opinion is that he should be above Marte, too. While it was encouraging to see the OF the Mets used Thursday, it would be even better if we substituted Taylor for Marte.

The question then is what would be the best defensive alignment with those three. You can play Taylor anywhere, while Nimmo is best in either LF or CF. Where will Winker do the least amount of harm? To me it makes sense to play Winker in LF and Taylor in RF. And sub in Bader after Winker’s had his likely last PA of the game.

Perhaps when Jose Quintana pitches, because he has so little room for error, you emphasize defense, replacing Winker with Bader and shifting Nimmo over to LF. And perhaps there are some tough LHP, where you sub Marte for Winker and have Taylor move to CF and Nimmo to LF.

For some rough guidelines, here’s my preferred OF starts the rest of the way:

28 – Nimmo
28 – Taylor
20 – Winker
4 – Bader
4 – Marte