For the Mets, September is here and the games are meaningful

The Mets have won three games in a row and are 9-4 in their last 13 games. This mini spurt has gotten them within two games of the third Wild Card spot. But the remaining schedule is not easy. The final 26 games include 16 versus teams over .500, including a closing stretch of three in Atlanta and three in Milwaukee. And while it doesn’t get much publicity, the Brewers have beaten the Mets like an unwanted-redheaded stepchild here recently. Milwaukee has gone 29-13 against New York since the start of 2017 and it won the last two games played in 2016, too.

Yet my feeling is that there’s a sense of optimism – however slight – about the Mets’ chances here in September. Perhaps the fans feel that their team is due, having finished with a losing record in 11 of the past 15 years. Speaking of chances, Baseball-Reference list the Mets with a 26.5% chance of making the playoffs. Is it better to be optimistic with those odds and 26 games remaining or with a 15% chance and 57 games remaining? Better yet – don’t answer that question.

Last year, the second and third Wild Card teams in the National League both finished with 84 wins. If the Braves finish at their current winning percentage, they’ll wind up with 88 wins and if the Padres do the same, they’ll close the season with 90 wins. It’s going to be significantly harder to make the playoffs in the NL here in 2024.

However, teams don’t perform within a narrow range of outcomes all season. The Padres were 50-50 after losing their first game after the All-Star break. Then they went on a heater where they went 19-3. Yet in the 16 games since that torrid stretch, the Padres are 8-8. Do they have an 8-16 finish in them to partially negate that earlier 19-3 run?

And it’s an almost identical story with the Diamondbacks. They were 51-50 before a white-hot streak where they went 18-3. But in their last 14 games, the D’Backs are 7-7. They’re a .500 team that played out of their minds over a 21-game stretch. Now, they’re due for some regression.

Here’s how the rest of the season shapes up for those two squads:

San Diego (12 Home, 12 Away)
H – Tigers, Giants, Astros, White Sox
A – Rays (1), Mariners (2), Giants, Dodgers, D’Backs

Arizona (13 Home, 13 Away)
H – Dodgers (2), Rangers (2), Brewers, Giants, Padres
A – Giants, Astros, Rockies, Brewers (4)

Neither of those schedules seem particularly easy, which is a good thing for Mets fans. And the season ends with a head-to-head matchup. We may end up rooting for one team to sweep the other here. With seven games left against the Brewers, it might be more likely for the D’Backs to stumble. One other note and that’s about the Giants. The Mets are likely to be San Francisco fans, as they face both the Padres and D’Backs six times here in September.

Of course, none of that makes a difference if the Mets don’t play well here in September. But there’s one thing we have to consider. While both the Padres and D’Backs are .500 teams that had an inexplicable 20-something game stretch, the Mets’ story is something different. After beginning the year 24-35, the Mets have played to a 48-29 mark since, a .623 winning percentage.

It’s one thing to play out of your mind for 21 or 22 games. It’s another to play at a 101-win pace for 77 games. Here are how the Mets’ hitters with at least 75 PA since June 3 have done:

Name	G	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Francisco Lindor	77	358	8.90%	18.70%	.257	.329	.301	.374	.558	.397	161
Pete Alonso	77	335	11.00%	27.20%	.226	.296	.247	.337	.473	.348	128
Brandon Nimmo	70	316	12.00%	23.10%	.179	.293	.245	.342	.425	.336	119
J.D. Martinez	71	300	11.00%	28.70%	.183	.309	.237	.333	.420	.330	116
Mark Vientos	70	290	7.60%	29.00%	.255	.327	.270	.328	.525	.361	137
Jeff McNeil	67	234	6.40%	16.70%	.204	.265	.251	.312	.455	.329	115
Francisco Alvarez	62	213	8.00%	26.80%	.139	.301	.232	.296	.371	.292	90
Harrison Bader	66	203	3.40%	20.20%	.182	.246	.230	.271	.412	.292	90
Jose Iglesias	57	183	6.00%	13.10%	.138	.355	.317	.372	.455	.358	134
Tyrone Taylor	61	165	5.50%	24.20%	.192	.308	.245	.309	.437	.323	111
Luis Torrens	34	103	6.80%	21.40%	.160	.300	.255	.311	.415	.315	105
Starling Marte	21	81	4.90%	24.70%	.118	.382	.289	.325	.408	.319	108
Jesse Winker	26	77	3.90%	15.60%	.151	.383	.342	.364	.493	.367	141

While the hitting hasn’t been quite this good lately, there’s an awful lot of production going on here. Are the pitchers carrying their weight? Here’s how they’ve done in the same time frame, including those who are and who might be pitching for the club in September

Name	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA
Luis Severino	6	4	0	15	15	88.1	7.85	2.55	1.43	.311	4.28
David Peterson	8	1	0	15	15	87.1	6.9	3.92	0.72	.276	2.78
Sean Manaea	7	3	0	15	15	86.2	9.55	2.91	1.25	.234	3.43
Jose Quintana	6	4	0	15	15	82.2	7.51	3.92	1.2	.254	3.59
Tylor Megill	3	3	0	8	7	36.1	10.16	4.21	1.49	.337	6.19
José Buttó	5	0	3	17	0	30	9.3	4.5	0.9	.224	2.10
Adam Ottavino	1	0	0	29	0	26.2	9.79	3.38	0.68	.315	3.71
Dedniel Núñez	2	0	1	18	0	24.2	10.95	1.82	0.73	.246	2.19
Paul Blackburn	1	2	0	5	5	24.1	7.77	2.59	1.48	.365	5.18
Danny Young	0	0	0	26	0	24.1	12.21	4.44	0.74	.286	3.70
Edwin Díaz	4	2	10	21	0	19.2	12.81	3.66	0.92	.200	2.75
Christian Scott	0	1	0	4	4	19.2	6.41	2.75	2.29	.271	5.49
Phil Maton	1	0	0	21	0	19.1	9.31	2.33	0.47	.196	1.86
Reed Garrett	2	3	1	20	0	18	11.5	6.5	1	.357	5.00
Huascar Brazobán	0	1	0	11	0	12	7.5	6	0.75	.242	5.25
Ryne Stanek	0	0	0	10	0	9.2	10.24	5.59	1.86	.227	7.45
Alex Young	0	0	0	7	0	7	7.71	3.86	0	.222	1.29
Kodai Senga	1	0	0	1	1	5.1	15.19	1.69	1.69	.125	3.38
Sean Reid-Foley	0	0	0	6	0	5	7.2	1.8	0	.083	0.00

It’s not as impressive as the hitting but we still see plenty of good things. The five pitchers currently in the rotation are a combined 30-15. And it’s a deep bullpen, with six relievers on 9/1 having an ERA of 3.71 or below and a seventh in Nunez who will hopefully be activated within the week.

Can the Mets maintain their .623 winning percentage over the final 26 games? That would be a 16-10 record and give them a final record of 88-74, which may be what it takes to make the postseason.

My focus here has been on the two NL West clubs because a team with the Braves’ typical good fortune doesn’t end the season on a down note. To be fair, the Braves have had terrible luck by suffering a slew of injuries to key players. Maybe that more than cancels out a CY Award season from Chris Sale and an MVP-type year from Marcell Ozuna.

Regardless of what you think of the Braves, it comes down to the Mets needing to continue to play well, with at least one of the teams ahead of them suffering a rough patch. They can get September off to a good start by completing a sweep of the White Sox later today. But before you count that as a given, know that the Mets have lost their last seven games played on a Sunday. And in their last six Sundays, they’ve scored a combined 11 runs.