The five most exhilarating words in sports broadcasting come from horse racing, but it applies with equal force to the pennant chase days of baseball in September. The New York Mets, after being left for dead in early June (at least by this writer), find themselves squarely in the mix for a Wild Card berth to the 2024 National League playoffs. A workmanlike sweep of the historically bad White Sox means that with 25 games to play, they are 73-64, a slim game behind their perennial nemesis, the Atlanta Braves for the final NL Wild Card. How will it end?
The remaining teams on the Mets schedule will determine their fate from here to October. The Mets have ten games remaining against the teams they are chasing – three versus the aforementioned Braves and seven with the Philadelphia Phillies. The best pa to making up ground is to play head-to-head against the clubs at the top of the standings and to beat them. Unfortunately, playing those teams is also the fastest road to being left in the dust. The Mets have a terrible track record when it comes to squaring off with the Braves, and not much better as to the Phillies. (I still have PTSD from 2007 – blowing a 7-game lead with 17 to play. Followed by a not so dramatic, but still agonizing collapse in 2008.)
The other 15 games are with teams they should handle well (if one concludes that the Brewers will be resting regulars in the final three games of the season.) The Red Sox, Reds, Blue Jays and Nats are not as good as the Mets and they will all be playing out the string with little hope of advancing to the post-season. In previous articles in this space, it has been stated that 88 wins should be enough to squeeze into the last Wild Card spot. So far, that seems to be a fair prognostication. The Mets will have to go 15-10 in their remaining games to ring that bell.
Much of the focus has been on catching the Braves for this prize, but the Mets are not that far out (a mere four games) from the other two teams – the Padres and the Diamondbacks. Of the three teams ahead of the Mets, the team facing the toughest schedule is the Diamondbacks. It is not difficult to envision the Diamondbacks losing half their remaining games, which just might give the Mets an opening that nets them a playoff round. Few would have predicted, at the outset of this season, that the National League East would have three teams in the playoffs.
The Mets will need strong contributions from their position players to achieve what seemed impossible in early June. Other than Francisco Lindor, no Mets regular is having a stellar season. Pleasant surprises Jose Iglesias and Mark Vientos have not been enough to overcome an inconsistent offense. Pete Alonso is having his least productive full Major League season. Francisco Alvarez looks lost. Starling Marte has not performed well. Brandon Nimmo, an All-Star snub, has faded badly since mid-July.
While the team’s starting pitching has been a strong point all season (punctuated by excruciating Edwin Diaz led bullpen meltdowns), there is reason for optimism on the pitching front. Recent reports are that pitchers Kodai Senga and Christian Scott are recovering more quickly than expected and may be ready to reinforce the pitching rotation in a couple of weeks. Intentionally, left off the reinforcement list is Paul Blackburn. He had two good starts at the beginning of his Mets’ tenure – but he has since fallen into a pitching abyss. While Scott and Senga’s presence will be welcome, it may be a case of too little too late.
Ultimately, I think the team will fall agonizingly short of a playoff appearance this year. After that, Steve Cohen’s checkbook and David Stearns’ talent evaluation will have us dreaming of a big offseason.
Cohen and Stearns delivered on what they said they would do. Be competitive now and plan for the future. While I absolutely wish they did more of the latter and less of the former, I understand that there are other considerations at play, including gate revenue etc that an 75 win team wont generate (but does it matter when you have the wealthiest owner in baseball?).
I agree that the Mets will ultimately find themselves on the outside looking in (I hope that latches on with you Boingo fans out there!). The head to head matches in the NLE and the Brewers tend to leave skid marks on Mets fans hearts, at a time when they are still chasing. It probably worth recalling that even with this pace of play the Mets are on, they still are on outside.
A review of September performance is certainly in order. For many years we can see that the Mets do great in September, but really only when there’s little on the line, like so many of the TC led Mets seasons, When the times get serious, unfortunately, September can be a hell month. Let’s hope for the former, and not the latter.
I neglected to mention that the Mets have tiebreaker advantages over both the Padres and the Diamondbacks. But not the Braves (as of now they’re tied). As in 2022, the last series against the Braves will probably be the determining factor as to whether the team makes the playoffs.
The Top 5 reasons the Mets are struggling to make the playoffs:
1. 0-5 to start the season.
2. Getting swept by the Rays.
3. Getting swept by the Guardians.
4. Losing 2 out of three to the Angels.
5. Losing two out of three to Oakland.
If we had won one more game in each of the above, we’d be 2 games out of first chasing the Phillies.
I think the law of averages has yet to catch up with Arizona and San Diego. Those teams currently have records that are well above their actual profiles on paper because of huge hot streaks they both had in the middle of the summer. I predict the chill of fall will see both teams hit losing skids that will give the Mets their opportunity.
The Mets are due to get hot themselves and how long will the DBacks take to come back to Earth? Alonso is waking up, Lindor must continue, and maybe Nimmo stubs his toe somewhere and wakes up. The Cubs are in a hot streak, so that will end soon. The Padres are back to normal. The Braves… well, they haven’t given up more than three runs in three weeks according to Tim Britton. That won’t last forever either.
I don’t know why Mets fans are so negative about the team, but I will say that a lockdown closer will probably make the difference between them making it and not.
The Mets have the toughest schedule of the four teams. Two wins in the Braves series could make the difference of playoff. Winning that series and 87 wins should be sufficient to make the playoffs.
Denis, I sure do miss Saratoga Raceway in August !
Meaningful games! Enjoy while it lasts.
“I still have PTSD from 2007 – blowing a 7-game lead with 17 to play.”
On Thursday 9/17/1964, the Philadelphia Phillies enjoyed a 6.5 game lead in the NL¹
Their record was 89-58, their runs scored to runs allowed ratio was 636/554
They then lost 12 of 13 games during which they were outscored 75 to 43
At the end of play on Wednesday 9/30/1964, 13 days later, their record was 90-70, 2.5 games back and thereby eliminated
Considering the Phils didn’t win their first WS until 1980², I bet this event caused some real PTSD
1. This was before the NL split into divisions
2. The Philadelphia Phillies have been in existence continuously since 1883
Note that in 2007, the Mets record over their final 17 games was 5-12, whereas the Phils went 13-4
During those 17 games, the Mets were outscored by a mere 17 runs: 115 to 98
So the Mets staggered, but the outcome was much more due to the Phils spectacular end of season performance
It was the Mets collapse that ruined that season. A 7-10 record would have clinched the playoffs. 5 wins in the last three weeks of the season is miserable. Worse still: they had a three game sweep against the Marlins that accounted for 3 of those 5 wins. Take that series out of the equation and they won only 2 of the remaining 14 games. Even worse: they were 9-2 to start the month!