Even though the Mets didn’t play on Thursday, it was a very good day for them. That’s because the three teams they’re chasing in the Wild Card derby all lost. And the Braves’ defeat put them in a tie with the Mets, with both squads sporting a 76-64 record. MLB used to have a tie-breaking game at the end of the year if necessary but now they use mathematical tiebreakers, instead. Thru 10 games, the two teams are 5-5. With three head-to-head games remaining, the two clubs won’t have to go to the second tiebreaker. But if they did – right now the Mets would make the playoffs, as they have a better record in the division. Which is why they should be listed above the Braves in the standings today, rather than the typical default of listing tied teams in alphabetical order.
We’ve spent so much time focusing on the Wild Card teams that we haven’t spent very much effort looking at the Division leaders. But if the Mets make it as the third Wild Card, they’ll face off against the third Division leader. Right now, the Dodgers and Phillies are tied with 84 wins, while the Brewers lead the Central with 81. A lot can and will change over the next 22 games. But a potential scenario is that the first round of the playoffs will mean a Brewers-Mets matchup. And there are two things that make that possibility noteworthy. First, the Brewers have kicked sand in the Mets’ face since 2017, going 29-13 against the Mets, including a 9-1 record the past two seasons. Second, those two clubs square off in the final series of the year.
The Brewers have yet to play the Diamondbacks and still have those three games at home against the Mets. The two clubs opened the year versus one another and Milwaukee won all three games. The Brewers are also 4-2 this year against the Braves. But they were just 2-5 against the Padres. The Mets own the tiebreaker against the Padres, having won the season series, 5-2. If somehow the Mets and Padres were tied for the third Wild Card – unlikely, but not impossible – entering the final game of the season, might the Brewers play possum in that last game to ensure the first-round matchup against the Mets?
Regardless of which team is where in the Wild Card hunt, will the Brewers rest their regulars and look to re-jigger their rotation if they’re locked into the third Division spot when the final series of the year arrives? The Dodgers hold the tiebreaker against the Brewers, while the Phillies hold a 3-0 lead in their head-to-head matchup, with three games September 16-18 in Milwaukee still to come.
Ever since the losses down the stretch in both 2007 and 2008, Mets fans (and announcers!) have somehow built up a mythology about the Marlins. In both of those seasons, the Marlins won two of three in the final series of the year. The Mets won the season series in both years but no one remembers that. And the Mets have a .604 winning percentage against the Marlins since 2018. But that gets thrown out the window. Because – everyone say it with me – the Marlins always play us tough.
Call me crazy but if given the chance to close the year against a Miami franchise which the Mets have a .604 winning percentage or their .310 winning percentage against Milwaukee here recently, my preference would be to face the Marlins, regardless of how “tough” they play against the Mets.
My opinion is that the only team worse than the Brewers to play with everything on the line is a fully healthy Dodgers squad. Sure, the Mets historically aren’t great against the Braves yet they have a .426 winning percentage against the Braves in their 61 games. They’ve simply played better against Atlanta than they have Milwaukee. The Mets are 31-26 against the Phillies in their last 57 games but that record could look a lot worse depending on how they do in the final seven games of 2024. But even if they lost all seven, their record wouldn’t be remotely as bad as it is against the Brewers.
Do historical records against a franchise mean anything, especially given how much turnover there is from year-to-year? Some folks believe that doesn’t matter at all. Yet Yogi Berra once told a fellow Yankee not to worry about the Red Sox because they’d been beating those guys for 50 years. I’m sure Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo are aware of how the Brewers have owned them here recently.
But there are 19 games before that series against the Brewers. Hopefully the Mets do enough between now and then that they won’t enter the final three games needing to win all three. It would be nice if they didn’t have to win two, either. Yet given how well they’ve played the majority of the season, 52-29 in their last 81 games, maybe the Mets don’t have to worry who they face the rest of the way.
First, it’s how those teams lost that wild. The Braves lost to the Rockies that have a .277 winning pct. on the road. The DBacks lost 3-2 on a walk off double after knocking out Snell in the first inning with 42 pitches and two runs. Even the other two runs scored on the bloopiest two strike single I’ve seen in quite a while. But, the cherry on top was how the Padres lost. Up 3-0 going to the ninth and a pitcher throwing 102 on the mound, the Tigers lead off with a single. Then, a walk. Then Torkelson strikes out, of course. Then, a walk to Keith. Then Carpenter strikes out. With two outs, the #9 hitter who looked like a flagpole wearing a uniform went to 3-2 before hitting an opposite field grand slam. Wow.
Surely there is a 3rd point to emphasize that would make a Mets / Brewers first round match up noteworthy. David Stearns. It would be a very “because baseball” thing for their former GM to get his new team into the playoffs in yr one facing his old team who themselves have exceeded expectations following their former managers departiure.
My rational is in the first round, I’d rather face the Brewers than the Padres. I don’t believe the Brewers have the firepower or depth of talent that the Brewers do. In fact, the Brewers have a nice balanced team, but they aren’t going to go up any more gears. I feel, the Padres have several gears to accelerate.
That’s a reasonable take given the Mets’ struggles against Darvish and Musgrove.
Meaningful game in September? Check. Playoffs?
There are seven remaining series. If the Mets don’t lose a series then they should be in position to make the playoffs. It is a tall order because they play series against the Phillies, Braves and the Brewers. The Braves series is crucial because of the ramifications in case of a tie.
In the final Brewer series the Mets might catch break because the Brewers should not be pitching the SP1 and SP2 . The Brewers will save them for the opening round of the playoffs. It is more than likely that the Brewers will finish in the third seed and won’t have a bye.