When you’re 9-1 in your last 10 and your team is winning games because Jose Quintana is pitching 6.2 scoreless innings and Harrison Bader is hitting a home run, it’s difficult not to get swept up in things and believe that this could be a special season. Now, if they can score more than two runs on a Sunday, something the Mets have failed to do in their last seven tries, maybe that will be the final sign that we can go all-in on this team.
Superstitions and narratives aside, let’s take a look at the main contenders, from a Mets’ perspective, for a playoff spot. Were not going to worry about the NL Central and West leaders, nor the Cubs nor Cardinals. But one team that will go under the microscope is the East-leading Phillies. It’s an extreme longshot, yet the Mets are seven games behind the Phillies with seven head-to-head games between the two squads still to come. At some point, we’ll get revenge for 2007 and 2008. Why not this year?
| Team | Record | 2nd Half | Last 10 | September | FG Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | 85-57 | 23-23 | 7-3 | 5-1 | 99.9% |
| Padres | 81-63 | 31-14 | 5-5 | 4-2 | 95.0% |
| D’Backs | 79-64 | 30-16 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 76.9% |
| Mets | 78-64 | 29-18 | 9-1 | 6-0 | 60.4% |
| Braves | 77-65 | 24-23 | 5-5 | 3-3 | 66.3% |
The Braves have the easiest schedule remaining, which is why they have better odds of making the playoffs than the Mets. But it’s not a cakewalk for them, as they play four against the Dodgers and close the year with three against the Mets and then three against the 78-65 Royals. However, all 10 of those games are at home, where Atlanta is 39-30 this year.
The Phillies have a .500 record since the break but that was due to a poor stretch to start the second half of the season. They’re 11-3 in their last 14 games, with a 7-2 mark in that span against clubs with a winning record. Upcoming they have the seven games with the Mets, three at Milwaukee and three against the Cubs. And while they’re under .500 for the season, the Rays are four games over .500 against teams outside the AL East this year, including 3-0 against the Mets, so they won’t be a pushover.
Both the Padres and D’Backs are getting healthy, which should aid them here in the stretch run. The Padres are 44-23 in their last 67 games. Yet that stretch includes their remarkable 19-3 stretch after the All-Star break. Without that 22-game span, San Diego is 62-60 in their other 122 games this season. And it’s the same story with the D’Backs, who had an 18-3 stretch. But outside of those 21 games, they are 61-61.
Now, you just can’t throw out a 21 or 22-game stretch of the year. But it sure is interesting what we see when we look at those two teams in that way. Maybe it means something, maybe it doesn’t. Yet if one (or both) of these teams underwhelms down the stretch, it shouldn’t come as a shock.
Obviously, whenever one of these five teams plays another in this group, it will have a big impact on things. But the Brewers will have a big say in how this all shakes out, too. They play seven against the D’Backs, three against the Phillies and the final three games against the Mets.
My guess is that the Phillies take the East and the Padres claim the top Wild Card spot. And the final two teams to make the playoffs are the Mets and Braves. Now, is it better to finish second and play the Padres or third and face the Brewers? The Padres have Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, who have given the Mets fits, both in the regular season and the playoffs. In the 2022 Wild Card series, Darvish and Musgrove combined to throw 14 IP with 1 ER against the Mets. And Musgrove has continued that dominance in his last two starts in the regular season, not allowing a run in 13 IP, while giving up just 4 H, with 0 BB and 16 Ks
But the Brewers have beaten the Mets like nobody’s business here recently, including a 9-1 mark the past two years. How the Mets fare against Milwaukee in the final three games of the season will likely influence fans’ perceptions over which team they’d rather face. But there is one thing that might make Milwaukee not seem so scary. We know that HR take on even more importance in the postseason, as it gets harder to string multiple hits together against playoff staffs. And the Brewers have given up the third-most homers in the NL to date.
With how well the Mets have played since early-June, perhaps they shouldn’t be scared of facing anyone. Hopefully that mindset prevails with the team the rest of the way, which would vault them to the playoffs and hopefully a repeat of what the D’Backs and Phillies achieved the past two seasons, making it to the World Series as Wild Card entrants.
We have been on a great ride with great pitching and timely hitting. Of course this is the team we hoped we would have all season long. I am happy to go back to my 88 win prediction for this year and the last wildcard spot but as a fan since day one, I’d be happy to make a run at that first wildcard spot. It would also seem fitting if the Phillies could collapse, but as Mets fans we know that’s really not gonna happen. Gotta take the Sunday game against the Reds and really take it to the Blue Jays, to give us a little breathing room before we face the incredibly tough part of our schedule. At the very least, it would be great to pass those Braves, the bane of our existence since they moved into the NL eastern division.
It’s been almost a decade since it’s felt to me like the Mets have the wind in their sails, so I am enjoying the moment. Still, it looks like 3 spots for 4 teams, and the Mets still have the toughest task. I’ll hold off on thoughts of the Phillies or a possible playoff opponent. 9 -1 runs and important September games are great, but falling short now would still be bitter. LGM. Keep the train rolling.
Great analysis of the playoff picture for the Mets.
Can they win the Philles 7 game series 4-3? Three of those games are in Philadelphia. They must win the Braves series 2-1 because the winner will get the tie. If they lose the series then they have to beat them outright. I think the Mets can make the playoffs but it’ll be very difficult.
After today, when the picture could have looked quite in favor of the Mets, they floundered, treating another Sunday like a day off, meanwhile, in extras, the Braves fell behind in the top of the 10th and then chopped the head off the Blue Jays in the bottom of the frame.
It’s September. If you cant get up for games now with just a few weeks left, it doesn’t bode overly well.
Fell 1 short of the dream. They ran out of gas. I blame mendoza for pitching Diaz up 4 yesterday. Maton yesterday and Diaz today and we re likely looking at a loss less homestead. Ah well can’t win em all. Expecting them to play well against the blue Jay’s and be within 5 of the Phillies by the time they get to game 1 of that series.