Scheming ways for the Mets to make the playoffs without having to play Monday

In recent years, no one has owned the Mets quite like the Brewers. Just since the start of 2023, Milwaukee holds a 9-1 edge in the head-to-head matchups between the two clubs. The idea that the Mets could sweep a road series against the Brewers is preposterous. Now, some will say that with the Brewers having nothing to play for – they’re locked into the third seed – that they’ll prioritize rest and setting up their rotation over winning games this weekend. Still, a sweep seems unlikely to me.

But for the sake of argument, let’s say the Mets sweep the Brewers and the Padres do the same – or win two – with the Diamondbacks. That would clinch a playoff spot for the Mets. Depending upon what the Braves do in their games this weekend versus the Royals, it’s possible the D’Backs get eliminated, too.

So, in this hypothetical where everything breaks the Mets’ way – how should the Mets and MLB treat the Monday doubleheader against the Braves? Is it in the Mets’ best interest to forsake a day off for the chance to claim the second Wild Card and avoid a Milwaukee squad that they just swept? Can they petition MLB to give the Braves the higher seed due to Atlanta owning the tiebreaker?

That seems unlikely. Because if the Mets sweep, the Braves will be behind them in the standings. How could MLB justify giving the higher Wild Card seed to the team with the worse record? Could the Mets just forfeit the games to avoid the doubleheader? It’s not like MLB can send a SWAT team to Milwaukee and make the Mets get on a plane to Atlanta. Still, you’d think there would be repercussions from the league office if the Mets chose this option. A hefty fine would just be the start. It’s not hard to imagine a petty entity like MLB coming up with new and painful ways to make the Mets’ life more difficult, both in the playoffs and the 2025 season.

So, is there an ideal situation where the Mets make the playoffs and don’t have to travel to Atlanta on Monday?

Currently, the three teams line up like this:

NYM: 87-70, own the tiebreaker over ARI
ARI: 88-71
ATL: 86-71, own tiebreakers over both ARI & NYM

The Mets need the games this weekend to play out so that neither they nor the Braves have a need for the games to be played on Monday, which is a tricky thing given how tight the standings are. By virtue of holding the tiebreaker over Arizona, the Mets need to win one more game than the D’Backs this weekend to make the playoffs. But we need this weekend to work out so that the Mets are in and the Braves don’t need to play the Monday games, either.

Scenario 1: Mets win two, giving them 89 wins; D’Backs win one, giving them 89 wins and Braves get swept, giving them 86 wins and unable to tie either team ahead of them.

Scenario 2: Mets win three, D’Backs win two and the Braves win 1

As best as I can tell, every other scenario would need at least one game to be played between the Mets and Braves on Monday, assuming we ignore ones where the weekend ends with the D’Backs three games ahead of the Mets and the Braves two ahead. That would eliminate the Monday games, too, but leave the Mets out of the postseason.

MLB, while perhaps not doing enough to avoid the necessity of a Monday doubleheader, at least had the schedule work out so that there were competitive series to determine the Wild Card participants. All three teams are playing squads above .500 and five of the six teams in these matchups have something riding on the outcomes.

The Padres and D’Backs square off and while San Diego has clinched a playoff spot, they are still fighting for home field advantage. The Mets hold the tiebreaker over the Padres, so San Diego would need to win two games to ensure themselves of the top spot.

Previously, we just looked at the playoff situation and avoiding Monday games with the three teams fighting for two spots. But if we consider the Padres and the top Wild Card seed, Scenario 2 gets wiped out. If the Mets sweep and the Padres only win one game, that leaves the Mets with 90 wins, just a game behind the Padres. So, they’d need to play at least one in Atlanta to determine seeding.

There are eight different ways a three-game series could play out. Let’s lay them out in terms of the winning team in the Mets-Brewers series:

NYM, NYM, NYM
MIL, NYM, NYM
NYM, MIL, NYM
NYM, NYM, MIL
NYM, MIL, MIL
MIL, NYM, MIL
MIL, MIL, NYM
MIL, MIL, MIL

Three of the eight potential outcomes work out with the Mets winning two games. It’s also three outcomes where the D’Backs win one game in their series and one outcome where the Braves get swept. Looking at the three series independent of one another, there are seven chances out of 24 where we end up with the best-possible outcome of the Mets making the playoffs without having to play Monday.

But that seems too high. Perhaps Jose or one of our other mathematically inclined people can figure out the real odds of this happening, assuming that each game has a 50-50 chance of being won by either team.