The 2024 Mets provide an update on ‘It ain’t over ’til it’s over’

Here we sit, waiting on the next to last game of the season, or perhaps the last game of the season. Should the Mets win one of the two games played today, they will make the 2024 Postseason. Should they win both games, they will sweep the Atlanta Braves out of the post-season. On the other hand, should both games be won by the Braves, the Mets will find themselves on the outside looking in.

Whether the Mets make the playoffs or not does not define the success of this season. The Mets pre-season expectations were largely “slightly better than 2023”, around 81 to 83 wins. The Mets are going to finish at least five games better than forecasted and that is a good sign.

The offense played as expected, with Francisco Lindor performing about three bWAR better than expected, and the development of Mark Vientos was also key. The rest of the players were cromulent, taken as a whole, for the season. Jose Iglesias was a pleasant surprise, while Jesse Winker was something of a disappointment. David Stearns tried and has made a big difference in the team’s success.

The extra wins also were created from the starting pitchers. Sean Manaea has not pitched this well in nearly five years. Jose Quintana and Luis Severino performed about as well as could be expected if not slightly better.

The question needing answered is whether David Peterson is for real. Peterson has some great overall numbers, but in only 120 innings. He made five starts in September, the last one yesterday was a brilliant one-hitter. But nine days ago, he got rocked and lasted just 3.2 innings. The game before that, he was left in too long (Thanks, Carlos Mendoza) but pitched great. The game before that, rocked again, going just 4.1 innings. He didn’t get in the rotation until June, so he has less wear on him this year, so it remains to be seen if this is a long-term improvement. Fingers are crossed. Breaths are held.

Had Mendoza managed the pitching staff as well as Strat-o-matic on auto, the Mets would have won several more games and would not be clenched waiting for the games today.

The Mets also would not be in this situation had J.D. Martinez not turned into a pumpkin. Martinez went 5-for-52 in September (so far). He posted a .096/.203/.135 slash line. Rey Ordonez would have been preferable in the DH slot. Martinez seems to be scheduled to play today. Unfortunately for the Mets, Winker’s September has been equally as miserable, if not worse, as incredible as that would seem.

One item spreading on the intertubes was Lindor’s chances at MVP. Lindor had an excellent season, and in most years would be a fine choice for MVP, becoming the first Met to ever win (forget Kirk Gibson). This was a close race heading into September. Then Los Angelos Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani went crazy. In the month of September, Ohtani batted 0.393. The last two weeks? .628/.667/1.186.  An OPS of 1.853. Even with the lack of fielding, the numbers Ohtani was putting up rivaled anything we have seen. Not winning the MVP isn’t a negative to Lindor’s incredible season – one of the best a Mets hitter has ever produced. Perhaps next year.

Regardless of today’s outcomes, 2025 looks promising. Stearns has demonstrated a willingness to move to new relievers, and to pick up replacement players. Next year, much of the offense will be the same, much of the rotation will be, so finding one or two free agents in key spots (right field, starting pitching), the Mets should be able to be in the hunt.

Let’s go Mets