It’s sobering to contemplate that the 2024 season may end later tonight.
This team, one that very few thought was going to make many waves this season, has given me a lot of joy. Sure, it was a miserable start to the year, followed by a month of May that would look at home among the records of the expansion-era squads. But since June 3, this team has been magnificent. And everyone involved should be proud.
Still, the words of Brian Flanagan from “Cocktail,” keep rattling around in my head. “Everything ends badly; otherwise, it would never end.”
Perhaps it was some form of advanced karmic payback to have the regular season finish with six games against the Braves and Brewers – teams that have had their way with the Mets. And the Mets went 2-4 in those games, needing a minor miracle to win Game #161.
And then fate had them squaring off against the Brewers in the Wild Card round. On paper, that might have been the most advantageous draw for a sixth seed. But we know the games aren’t played on paper and the fact that the Brewers went 11-2 against the Mets in the past two seasons was every bit as important as the fact that the Mets were playing well and came in with a significant power advantage.
Questionable moves by the Brewers, combined with some timely hitting by the good guys, led to the Mets winning Game 1. And then some questionable moves by the Mets, combined with poor results with RISP from our heroes, led to a Game 2 loss. And now it’s a win-or-go-home Game 3.
This year, which saw the Mets end on a 65-38 note in the regular season, may finish with the Mets going 3-6 in the last nine games they played. It doesn’t seem right.
Every team has to face adversity at some point during the year, whether that’s in the regular season or the playoffs. You’d think the Mets already checked off the adversity challenge, having lost their first five games of the season and rallying back from being 11 games under .500 to make the playoffs. But it’s rarely easy for our Mets.
Perhaps better pitching decisions would have resulted in a Game 2 win. A sweep in Milwaukee would have been wonderful. Alas, it turned out that easy wasn’t in our Wild Card bingo card. Maybe that will make a win tonight even more satisfying.
The rotation is set up so that Jose Quintana will take the mound in the decisive Game 3. And Quintana ended the year on a terrific roll. He was 4-1 with a 0.74 ERA in his last six starts of the season. Plus, considering that the Mets lost Game 2 because the Brewers out-homered them, 3-1, it’s important to note that Quintana did not allow a homer in his final six starts.
Yet, there’s the nagging doubt that Quintana has such a small margin for error. Sure, he’s been great lately. But he’s also given up five runs or more five times this season, including a start where he allowed 10 H and 8 ER in 2.2 IP.
For his career, Quintana has good numbers against the Brewers. Lifetime, he’s 9-7 with a 2.98 ERA versus Milwaukee. However, most of the good numbers were posted pre-2019, which is a lifetime ago. This year he’s faced them twice and allowed 11 H and 4 ER in 9 IP. Bottom line is that the Mets need a better outing than that if they want to advance to the NLDS.
The other option is to start David Peterson on short rest.
Peterson ended the year on a strong note, too, going 5-2 with a 2.41 ERA in his last 11 starts. Included in that stretch was Game #160, where he helped the Mets snap a three-game losing streak by throwing seven shutout innings against … the Brewers. Should Peterson’s very-recent success against Milwaukee tip the scales and make him the choice to start Game 3? It’s not an easy decision and no one should envy this choice that Carlos Mendoza has to make.
For what it’s worth, Quintana made three starts this year against the Phillies and in 16 IP, he posted a 2.81 ERA. Peterson made two starts against Philadelphia and notched a 3.97 ERA.
Who gives the Mets the best chance to win? Which pitcher is better situated to start Game 1 against the Phillies? It’s easy to make choices here from afar. But what type of shape is Peterson in? Is he ready to go on short rest? And how will Quintana react if he’s not given the ball to start Game 3? We’d like to think that a veteran would be able to handle that type of slight. But none of us knows how a competitor would react.
Mendoza is in a tough spot. Regardless of who he chooses – if they let up runs early, he’ll be second-guessed. The flip side of that is if his choice gives six scoreless innings, he’ll be praised. It’s why he makes the big bucks. Then he’ll just have to make better bullpen decisions in the final innings. Is Jose Butto ready to go after one day off following a two-inning stint? Is Reed Garrett ready for a back-to-back? Can Adam Ottavino be trusted in a high-leverage spot? Do you look to pitch Edwin Diaz for all or parts of the eighth inning?
There’s a lot more to tonight’s game than who should start. Offense hasn’t been discussed at all and hopefully they’ll post more runs than the three they did in Game 2.
But in my opinion, the most critical thing is who gets the nod to start and how they perform. If it was me who was making that decision, I’d gather Jeremy Hefner and Peterson together and try to determine how mentally and physically ready he was to pitch on short rest. And assuming Hefner believed he was ready to go – my choice would be Peterson.
It was decided by Mendoza that Quintana will start.
Quintana is the safe choice for the manager.
Your last paragraph should be how manager should approach his decision based on the facts stated in your article. We will never know if that conversation took place.
Peterson , if he is determined by Heffner to be able, should be Mendoza’s Game #3 starter. It just makes sense.
PS: this kind of article makes Mets360 ahead of the others. I do appreciate it.
Thanks for the kind words!
There were rumors that Peterson was going to be available to pitch an inning last night, which Mendoza shot down. I think he should start tonight but if the decision has been made to go with Q – is Peterson available out of the pen? On one hand, you want all hands on deck in an elimination game. On the other hand, I don’t want Max Kranick starting G1 in Philadelphia.
It would be another round therefore they can adjust the playoff roster. I hope that Peterson it just game one but Lucchese to the rescue or could there be a ghost of a chance…Senga.
Peterson pitches 6-7, Butto 8 and Diaz closes?
I second Metsense’s comment that this kind of article sets M360 apart. Brian, this site and community combine the objective and sometimes brazen look at the analytics with the empathy and emotion that make us humans. I admire how you balance both in your writing. This is reflected in the site overall and with the community that makes up M360.
If Kranick is starting G1 against the Phils, then that means we emptied almost the entire staff to pull out a win tonight and I think that’s an outcome we’d all appreciate.
My prediction (hope): Alonso carries this team on his back tonight. He’s long overdue.
Here, Here!
I’m in the Quintana camp but with a short leash and Peterson ready to carry some bulk innings in relief if needed. And Diaz needs to be prepared to come in during the game’s most crucial moments whether that’s the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. But as you stated, if the offense doesn’t score at least 4 or 5 runs, it won’t matter. My mets brain says they will blow it, while my mets heart says different. That’s what being a mets fan is all about after all.
Don’t think Alonso steps up, but it would be great for Lindor to get us off to a hot start and do some damage in the first inning.
I agree with the move to start Q. Both lefties have finished the season strong but I would go with Quintana in regular rest over Peterson on short rest. They’ll be no second guessing of that from me. I think the choice is clear. Short leash of course.
My scientific analysis is this: first series of the year between these two teams, the Brewers won three games; second series of the year, Brewers won two games; the third series of the year, the Brewers will win one game.
I dig it!
In my best Captain Picard voice: Make it so!