We’ll have an article later today but for now let’s talk about Pete Alonso.
He’s a homegrown star who has provided a ton of entertainment – and production – since making the majors in 2019. Of course, this wasn’t his best year and he’s a free agent free to sign with any team he wants in the offseason. Many Mets fans want to see him retire as a Met and break the team’s all-time home run record. Some, while recognizing what Alonso has given the team in the past, don’t want to pay for the decline years of his career moving forward.
And now a monkey wrench has been introduced into the discussion. Does his epic home run Thursday night change the calculus any? Should it? Where do you stand right this moment in regards to Alonso’s free agency?
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I think having home grown stars spend their entire careers with one team is a worthy goal although it happens so rarely. If the Braves can move on from Freddie freeman or the Mariners from Ken Griffey Jr, the mets can move on from Alonso. But at the right price he should stick around. That is a 2 way street. If Pete wants to stay a met for life sign a 5 or 6 yr contract at 25 mil per and call it a day. I don’t think he gets much more on the open market but he should be willing to give the mets a good deal to stay with the team and join Nimmo with their numbers retired in 10 years as all time great mets. If he wants 200 million or more and let’s Boras hold him out then I am fine going into next season with Vientos at 1b or making a run at Christian Walker on a shorter deal which probably improves the team more anyway. But I will forever love the polar bear for that homerun last night and for his rookie year alone.
I’m a big believer in fWAR and its valuation of (roughly) $8 million per unit of WAR on the free agent market.
Alonso had a 4.7 fWAR in his rookie season and hasn’t topped 4.0 since. Here’s how he’s done the last three years, along with how FG values that production:
2022 – 3.8, $30.7
2023 – 2.8, $22.8
2024 – 2.1, $16.1
I can’t see a 5/$125 deal — I just can’t.
And I know everyone will say — Cohen can afford it. And he can, without a doubt.
It’s just that I don’t want to see the Mets turn into the late 80s Yankees and just overpay for every shiny thing. And my guess is that Stearns feels the same way.
Being a homegrown star changes things. I’d overpay for that, give him a deal that would keep him in Queens long enough to break the record. But not long enough to be an albatross.
His last three years, he was worth $69.6 million and it’s my take he won’t be worth that the next three seasons. But I’d offer him 3/$75 and not a year or a penny more.
It will be fascinating to see how Stearns handles this.
I like your analysis but I can’t imagine the mets making him a 3 year offer or him even considering it even if it is the right thing to do. I think you pay a premium for the next 3 years for him to become the franchise all time home run leader with the understanding that the last 3 might not go so well (a la Ryan Howard), and know you can always plug him in at DH where maybe he over performs and becomes a different player in his later years. I do agree though that Stearns will approach this unemotionally even though he too is a Mets fan. Their first priority is clearly going to be Soto. I don’t think they are going to splurge on an ace because I think Stearns believes (and maybe rightfully so) he can put together a winning rotation for pennies.
Soto’s fWAR for 2024 is 8.1. Does that mean you’d support offering him $64MM a year? I wouldn’t, but at 26 next year, he’ll probably get a $500MM contract for 10 years. Should the Mets sign him to that deal?
As for Alonso, I agree with the concern about his decline years age 30-35. A contract similar to Matt Olson makes sense at $21MM AAV. That AAV over 5 years is probably the minimum to keep Pete. I think another team will pay him more, so he’s likely gone.
It means I wouldn’t call it an overpay if someone else gave him that deal.
All along, my thought was that – conditional on what they did this year – that the plan was to get under at least the draft-pick penalty, if not all luxury tax penalties in the 2025 season. And then go full-tilt in free agency for 2026. The success this season may alter that plan. We shall see.
From The Athletic today as part of Will Sammon’s article:
“ In the embrace, Iglesias told Alonso, “Thank you for listening.”
The second baseman was referring to the message he delivered just before the bottom of the eighth inning. That’s when Iglesias, from his position at second base, told Alonso, “Next inning, you’re going to hit a home run.””
Alonso supposedly rejected 7/158, or 22.57 a year. The annual salary is fair. A five year contract would be fair, 6 years a stretch and 4 would be good. Alonso wants more.
4/100 or 5/120 or 6/138 should be the limit. Alonso would want more.
There are two power bats in free agency, Juan Soto and Anthony Santander.
Soto is a cornerstone franchise player and it will be expensive.
Santander is the same age as Alonso and he can produce similar to Alonso. He would be cheaper than Alonso would be and less years committed.
Met life will continue without Pete Alonso.