Mets Manager Carlos Mendoza has released the names of his starting pitchers for the first three games of the NLCS against the Dodgers. Kodai Senga is scheduled to start game one, followed by Sean Manaea in game two with Luis Severino tapped for game three back in Citi Field. This rotation looks solid… but it could be better. Senga only pitched one game in the regular season before getting injured, he then pitched two innings in a start against the Phillies in the NLDS. He will perhaps pitch 3 or 4 innings in his start Sunday, with David Peterson likely coming in for a 3 inning or so outing. Is this opener-type game really desirable?
The Dodgers have a four player core for most of their offensive production, Shohei Ohtani, Freddy Freeman, Max Muncy and Mookie Betts. Only Betts bats right-handed, the rest including the biggest hitter of all Ohtani, bat from the left side. Ohtani put up an OPS against righties of 1.128. Against lefties he was still good but his total was .867, lower than the insane numbers he put up against right-handers. Therefore if you have good lefty starters like the Mets do, (Manaea, Peterson and Jose Quintana,) maximum use should be made of them.
So, as alternative to the current Mendoza rotation, the Mets could start Manaea in game 1, he would be pitching on normal rest since he last pitched 7 innings on Tuesday. Since a complete game is unlikely, have Senga prepare to come in in the sixth or seventh inning, hopefully mostly against the bottom of the Dodger batting order which is mainly right-handed.
On Monday the Mets could turn to Peterson who would be well rested after tossing 2.1 innings on Wednesday. They would be followed by Severino on an extra day’s rest in game 3 and Quintana for game 4. If more games are necessary, start over again with Manaea on the mound for game 5 followed by the rest of the proposed order. Senga obviously would be available for a couple of innings in another game, and high leverage relievers like Jose Butto and Edwin Diaz will likely see lots of action as well.
There are several advantages to this setup as opposed the current plan. The alternative plan would avoid opener games which tend to drain the bullpen, and would get more innings for the lefty starters. Using Peterson for 2 or 3 innings for a few games is under utilizing him.
Peterson has pitched 6.1 innings in the postseason and has yet to yield a run. He was great during the regular season as well with a 10-3 record and an ERA of 2.90 in 121 innings. Senga was excellent also, but that was back in 2023. The Dodgers are tough competition. The Mets have momentum and they could well win the series with the pitching order Mendoza has outlined, but I believe thay have even a better chance with the meritocracy alternative rotation proposed here.
I feel bad for Peterson, who has drawn the short stick in the playoffs.
But Peterson has experience pitching out of the pen, while Senga does not. How much does that matter? None of us really know for sure. But to me – this is a case of, if it’s not broke, don’t fix it.
I’m okay with the Peterson piggy back. He has pitched great as a starter, and perhaps his success out of the pen has cost him some playoff starts, but I think they are an overall better team playoff series with what he gives them from the pen. Heck, I would have left him in to close out the Phillies, and I see him as their 2nd best late game option behind Diaz. It’s a gamble, and someone else can piggy back Senga, but there is upside as well.
It is a surprise to see Peterson with the short straw, but he will get his innings basically on a starting pitcher timing unless it’s desperate.
Not only is Senga not a reliever, but I can imagine that Mendoza must be thinking that MLB hitters are not at all familiar with him now so he could be hard to pick up. If he can get two trips through unscathed, then Peterson can get 9 outs. Unfortunately, this is the ugly side of playoff baseball.
Not only is Senga not a starter, but at this point Im sure Mendoza must be thinking he will be are to pick up having played so little this season. Im fine with the Senga/Peterson combined starter, leaving Peterson with enough bullets to go long if needed or step in for a critical inning late.
Unfortunately this is the ugly side of modern playoff baseball.
As an aside I think I heard that no Dodger opponent faced the same pitcher even twice so far in the playoffs, so they are burning through pitchers like mad, like 5 every game. its an ugly look to my eyes.
Ugh, this web host lost my first reply, so I rewrote it, then it showed back up. Rough.
The Mets have five qualified starters. Three of them are lefties. They only need four starters . Danny Young is the only lefty in the bullpen. I wouldn’t put him in in a high leverage situation if I could help it. Peterson has adapted well in the bullpen. I hope it isn’t automatic that he would piggy-back for Senga. I hope the game dictates who would follow-up Senga. I trust Peterson in any high leverage situation as a reliever. Senga, Manaea and Quintana should get two potential starts and one for Severino.
reasonable, but I still think it is less than optimal to have an opener game after 3 days of rest for the team