After four games in the NLCS, the Dodgers have a +21-run differential and it seems like they are dominating the Mets. But as bad as it is now, it’s nowhere near the whupping behind the woodshed they laid on the Mets back in 2017. The Dodgers authored a 7-0 sweep of the Mets that season, with a +42-run differential. Here’s how both series played out:
| Date | Final | Scored 1st | Dodger HR | Mets HR | Dodger Ks | Mets Ks | Dodgers RISP | Mets RISP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/19/2017 | 10-6 | LAD | 4 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 4-12 | 0-2 |
| 6/20/2017 | 12-0 | LAD | 5 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 3-10 | 0-2 |
| 6/21/2017 | 8-2 | NYM | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 3-8 | 1-14 |
| 6/22/2017 | 6-3 | NYM | 3 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 1-9 | 1-8 |
| 8/4/2017 | 6-0 | LAD | 3 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 0-7 | 0-7 |
| 8/5/2017 | 7-4 | NYM | 5 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 0-3 | 0-5 |
| 8/6/2017 | 8-0 | LAD | 2 | 0 | 12 | 13 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Totals | 57-15 | 25 | 11 | 70 | 77 | 14-53 | 2-39 |
Against all teams besides the Mets in 2017, the Dodgers hit 196 HR in 155 games, an average of 1.26 HR per game. In seven games against the Mets, they averaged 3.57 HR per game. The Dodgers were a great HR-hitting team and they hit nearly three times as many homers per game against the Mets as they did the rest of MLB.
The Mets scored first three times in the series and lost all three games. And while the Mets were absolutely pitiful with runners in scoring position, the Dodgers were pretty much average in this regard, as they posted a .264 AVG with RISP against the Mets, while the NL had a .261 mark this year.
Here are the same numbers for the first four games of the NLCS:
| Date | Final | Scored 1st | Dodger HR | Mets HR | Dodger Ks | Mets Ks | Dodgers RISP | Mets RISP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/13/2024 | 9-0 | LAD | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 5-11 | 0-3 |
| 10/14/2024 | 7-3 Mets | NYM | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 1-9 | 4-12 |
| 10/16/2024 | 8-0 | LAD | 3 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 4-13 | 0-4 |
| 10/17/2024 | 10-2 | LAD | 2 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 6-15 | 0-10 |
| Totals | 6 | 3 | 36 | 39 | 16-48 | 4-29 |
The Dodgers have the edge in homers but nothing like what they held in 2017. During the regular season, the Dodgers averaged 1.44 HR per game and here in the NLCS, it’s 1.5 HR per game. Whereas in the 2017 matchup the Dodgers hit nearly three times as many homers as they did otherwise, here in the NLCS their HR output is exactly what you would expect in the four games.
Where the Dodgers have really excelled in this series is their production with RISP. MLB had a .252 AVG with RISP and the Dodgers had a .266 mark during the regular season. But here in the NLCS, they’re batting .333 in this split. With all of the walks Mets pitchers have allowed, they’re putting the Dodgers in favorable position. And they’re taking advantage at an incredible rate. And the Mets once again have been dismal.
Without question, the Dodgers have been the better team in this series, due mostly to better pitching and better hitting with RISP. Yet my take is the difference between the two teams is nowhere as large as it was back in 2017. This year, the Dodgers have been opportunistic, scoring first in all three of their wins and essentially coasting to victory thanks to their performance with runners in scoring position. The one game the Mets scored first – and got hits with RISP – they won.
In 2017, it just didn’t matter. At some point during the game, the Dodgers were going to club the Mets into submission. And the Mets trotted out pretty decent pitchers against L.A. The Dodgers put up an .821 OPS against Steven Matz, a .995 OPS against Jacob deGrom and a 1.857 mark against Zack Wheeler. And they had a four-digit OPS marks against six different relievers, too.
There’s no shame in losing to this Dodgers squad. When the series is officially over, I’ll congratulate my Dodgers friends and hope that they win the World Series. But my takeaway will be that the series was closer than it appears if you just look at the final scores. The Mets were competitive in strikeouts and somewhat competitive in home runs. It’s just that the walks allowed – a +14 edge for L.A. – and the RISP difference was just too much to overcome.
Hopefully, you learn from where you fell short. And the one undeniable takeaway is that the Mets need to feature pitchers who can throw strikes. You simply can’t win while allowing 31 BB in 35 IP. They may not be able to do anything about the team’s failure with RISP. But they absolutely can prioritize acquiring pitchers who don’t walk the ballpark. And cut ties with those who do.
*****
Misery loves company so join us in the Game Chatter for today’s 5:08 p.m. game — https://substack.com/chat/1934025/post/2f4f9fd9-a7d4-4f8b-8105-128844e562c5
I agree that the walks allowed by the Mets pitchers and the disparity in RISP have been the biggest factors. The one area that it seemed the Mets should have had an advantage was in starting pitching. The Mets starters had been pitching well and the Dodgers staff was seriously banged up. The three starters (not counting the bullpen game) that the Dodgers threw had all had some struggles recently. While Flaherty had a very good year overall, in his last 3 regular season starts and his playoff appearance against the Padres, he had given up 14 runs in 19.1 innings. YY has also had a good year, but struggled against the Padres, and Buehler’s been bad all year. All three shut down the Mets. Kudos to those guys for stepping it up, but it seemed before the series started that the Mets should be able to have some against that trio.
Other than the one inning in game 2, the Mets bats seem to be mostly dormant. I’m trying to remain positive, but to this point, I feel like the Mets have been pretty non-competitive, and to me, it doesn’t feel like the series has been closer than the scores. The walks and RISP issues are to blame but it feels like a total beatdown.
But if the Mets and Dodgers both just had their normal results with RISP, both the series and your take on it would be a lot different. And there’s an awful lot of luck in hitting with RISP. Which is why the NLCS feels different to me than the results in 2017.
And what if the Mets were hitting .333 with RISP and the Dodgers were hitting .138 in that split? It just feels like LA is due for a 1-10 game with RISP.
Perhaps if the Mets pitchers can throw strikes, we’ll see a game like that.
The problem is those things aren’t happening and that’s why it feels so one sided to me. The Mets aren’t hitting with RISP and they aren’t throwing strikes. I agree that if they do those things it won’t seem so one sided but until they do it’s the same as saying if they score more runs they’ll have a better chance to win.
I get the frustration.
The challenge is to look past the frustration and try to see the “how” and not just the “what.” For some people, the “what” is the only thing that matters. I’m not one of those people. And that’s why the NLCS doesn’t feel as hopeless to me as 2017 did.
Must. Throw. Strikes. The hitting is always streaky, but the pitching is terrible, especially against a team that doesnt chase the garbage (like Mets do).