I like Ike! You like Ike! Everyone likes Ike!
The much ballyhooed Ike Davis finally got his call in late April of last year with the Mets and instantly became a fan favorite in Flushing. After a blistering Spring Training, and an awesome start in Buffalo to start the season (.364 AVG., two home runs in 33 AB”s), Davis’ time in the minors was done.
Davis had a fairly productive rookie season (.264 AVG., 19 HR’s and 71 RBI’s in 523 AB’s) while invigorating the fan base with the flare for dramatic, including three breathtaking dugout-fence maneuvering catches and a walk-off home run.
Davis made people forget the awful contributions it got from first base in Mike Jacobs and Fernando Tatis to begin the year. The Mets had finally had their first great home-grown first basemen since Dave Magadan.
So what’s not to like about Ike? Well, a few things.
Don’t get me wrong, I too like Ike and he has the intangibles to be a very productive First Baseman, perhaps one day being an All-Star. However, Davis does have his flaws.
Davis’ strikeout rate and propensity for prolonged slumps should definitely raise a few red flags. While stopping short of saying he will fall victim to the “sophomore jinx,” Davis could see an increase in strikeouts, which could lead to a pedestrian average.
However, Davis does have a great eye for the ball and all Mets fans have to be encouraged with his on base percentage. Last season Davis drew 72 walks in 601 plate appearances, good for an admirable .351 OBP.
Davis’ flaws are easily correctable, though, and with proper coaching and patience, his game will take off in the coming years.
Also, you know Davis will give you a solid presence in the field. There were many that felt Davis was snubbed of a Gold Glove last year when he sported the NL’s best Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) for first basemen.
Mets fans have to just keep it realistic. It wouldn’t come as a shock if Davis struggles in his second season with a less-than-stellar batting average and more than 150 strikeouts.
With Davis expected to hit 6th in the lineup, he still does have the luxury in that he won’t be counted on to carry the club’s offense.
If the Mets get healthy production from Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay, that will lift some of burden off Davis to have a good year. I think it’s fair to assume Davis can hit 25+ home runs and 80+ home runs to go with a .260 average.
At 6-4, 215, Davis has the body that of a slugger. And at only 23 years of age, Davis has plenty of room to grow and be the Ike we can all like.
I think the main question with Davis is his power. I projected him for a 24.0% strikeout rate (144 K in 600 AB), but still hitting around .280. How? Because I realistically think he can hit around 22-26 HR this season. A 40.5% FB% and 12.0% HR/FB give us hope for that. CitiField or not, he has shown power, which helps in big ways.
Plus, as you said, he already has shown a good ability to draw a walk, so the potential is there for him to outperform the expected strikeout rate.
I am expecting big things from Ike this season.
His average and OBP faltered a little in the summer, and he recovered a few points in the last month or so. If he’s capable of correcting his flaws mid-season in his rookie year, I’d hope he could avoid a serious sophomore slump.
You hit it on the head. He struggled when the pitchers adjusted to him in midseason. But he finally adjusted to their adjustments as the season went on. This is a big deal. It is the inability to adjust that is the cause of the sophomore jinx. Who know how it will turn out, but he did show a skill that says he could continue to improve which would make him a top flight first baseman.
RotoProfessor,
Yea looking at his FB% and HR/FB%, he could exceed expectations. I’m hoping he learned a lot in his last couple of months with the Mets.