Generally, I have not been Mike Pelfrey’s biggest fan. It’s not like with Francoeur or Matthews, where just the sight of them made me upset – it’s different with Pelfrey. I do not actively dislike him but I do not feel a sense of relief when he’s the starter that day for the Mets. But, as Pelfrey won 15 games last year and is counted on to be the team’s ace this season, I thought it would be a good time to revisit him and see if I can change my opinion any.
First, let’s go back to 2010. Pelfrey’s season can be divided up into three parts. The first part was the, “I’ve got a new pitch, you can’t touch me!” Pelfrey. Part two was “It’s 2009 all over again” Pelfrey. The final version was the “Who is this guy” Pelfrey.
Part I – 5 games, 4-0, 0.69 ERA, 26 IP, 13 BB, 19 Ks, 0 HR
Part II – 18 games, 6-6, 5.04 ERA, 103.2 IP, 37 BB, 58 Ks, 9 HR
Part III – 11 games, 5-3, 2,78 ERA, 74.1 IP, 18 BB, 36 Ks, 3 HR
Basically, it worked out to being really good for half the season and fifth starter material for the other half. In April, the splitter helped him to a 6.6 K/9 mark, but for the rest of the season he had just a 4.8 K/9, even worse than he had been previously in the category.
But at the end of the year, Pelfrey was able to thrive even with a 4.4 K/9. He did this because he had the best control of his career in this stretch. Pelfrey notched a 2.2 BB/9 in his final 11 games. And just as importantly, he kept the ball in the park. In his final 74.1 IP, Pelfrey had a 0.36 HR/9.
I think it is safe to say, in a completely analytical, non mean-spirited way, that Pelfrey is not going to be a big strikeout pitcher. For awhile we had hope that his minor league strikeout numbers would show up in the majors. But after 683 IP with the Mets, including the addition of a new pitch to his arsenal last year, it seems safe to say that Pelfrey is not going to fan over six batters per game.
Now, that does not mean he can’t be a valuable pitcher.
But it does mean that he has to have excellent command and keep the ball in the park. Pelfrey’s command is right about where he needs it to be. Last year he had a 3.0 BB/9 and that is probably near the top end of what he needs to be successful. The big question is his HR rate.
Most major league pitchers have a HR/FB around 11 percent, probably a touch higher for starting pitchers. Usually, a pitcher can beat that mark in one season, but quickly finds himself back around average the following year. However, there are a few pitchers that can consistently post HR/FB rates below that and Pelfrey appears to be one.
Yet, it is not enough for Pelfrey to be below average in this category. Last year he had a 5.7 percent mark, or about half of what we would typically expect. In 2009, Pelfrey had a 9.5 percent HR/FB mark, one which would be a very good mark for most pitchers. And he had a 5.03 ERA that season. To be fair, it was not all HR/FB rate that caused the ERA – Pelfrey also allowed more baserunners and had a lower LOB% in 2009. But the career-high 18 HR he allowed that year was a big problem.
Let’s look at Pelfrey’s ERA and two ERA estimators for his three full seasons in the majors. FIP calculates an ERA based on HR, BB and K while xFIP uses those same three categories and also gives the pitcher a normal HR/FB rate.
| Year | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| 2008 | 3.72 | 3.96 | 4.49 |
| 2009 | 5.03 | 4.39 | 4.52 |
| 2010 | 3.66 | 3.82 | 4.46 |
It looks like 2009 was out of line with the other two years if you go by ERA. But if you use FIP, you see that all three seasons look similar and if you use xFIP, you see they are almost exactly alike. Pelfrey has been basically the same pitcher his three full seasons in the majors. It essentially comes down to his HR rate to determine if he looks like a hero (2010) or a goat (2009).
So, can Pelfrey post a HR/FB rate below 7.0 this season? Sure, why not – he’s done it in two of the past three years. Can he post a LOB% above 73 in 2011? Again, why not – he’s done it twice before.
Anything can happen once. If it happens twice, it could be a coincidence. But when something happens three years you have to start thinking it is a trend. Pelfrey has posted three straight years with a HR/FB rate below average. Two of those years it has been incredibly low. Here’s hoping he can do it for a third time here in 2011.
One thing that we can say for sure about Pelfrey is that he has been very durable. In the past three years, he has 589 IP, the 29th-best mark in the majors. The Mets can count on him to give them roughly 200 IP and while that does not seem like a lot, there are not many pitchers in baseball you can say that about – approximately one per team.
So, I expect Pelfrey to give the Mets 200 IP of essentially league-average pitching. Last year SP in the NL had a 4.05 ERA. While Pelfrey beat that mark last season, and in two of the past three years, I do not feel comfortable projecting the HR rate that it would take for Pelfrey to duplicate those numbers. Can he do it? Yes, absolutely he can. But let’s not take the best-case scenario and say that’s what we expect to happen.
In 2011, I expect Pelfrey to give the Mets #1 SP innings and #3 SP results. That’s not a bad guy to have on your staff. It’s just unfortunate that with the injury to Santana that the Mets need Pelfrey to be their top pitcher. But just because he is the default ace for the 2011 Mets, we should not view his season as a disappointment if he goes 12-10 with a 4.00 ERA.
What do you expect Pelfrey to do in 2011?