For the Mets to have a successful 2011 season, it once again has to get the most it can from the starting rotation. After all, the Mets quietly did have a solid rotation in 2010 and placed 7th in the league in ERA (3.70).
We have all heard the need for Mike Pelfrey to establish himself as the staff’s ace after a respectable 2010 campaign.
Another refrain we keep hearing is that in order for the Mets to be successful, R. A. Dickey has got to be more than a one-year wonder
Fans will also point to the return of ace Johan Santana as the key to the season. Factor in the signings of reclamation projects Chris Young and Chris Capuano, and pundits will say the Mets success hinges on the rebound seasons they put forth.
Almost always lost in the shuffle is Jon Niese. So this begs the question, just how important is Niese to the 2011 Mets?
It all depends on which Niese shows up. Will it be the pitcher who was showing lots of promise in July and August, or the one that struggled in September?
For the season, Niese finished with nine wins to go with a 4.20 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Not too shabby for a rookie. However, what is alarming is the 173.2 innings Niese pitched
That’s a lot of innings for the 23-year-old lefty. Usually when a pitcher approaches the 200 inning mark in a season for the first time, he could be in for a struggle the next year. Niese has never thrown more than 178 in one season, and that was in 2008 when he spent time with two minor league squads (Binghamton and New Orleans) as well as a brief stint with the Mets.
After a couple of injuries, most notably his torn hamstring in 2009, the Mets have been cautious with Niese, as he is their most valuable young pitching prospect. The Mets rebuffed trade offers last spring when his name came up in conversations.
There is a lot to like about Niese.
He is developing quite a splitter, and has an above average curve ball to go with a fastball he locates very well. The one thing in the Mets’ favor, in regards to Niese pitching a career high in innings, is the fact that he is more of a finesse pitcher and not an overpowering pitcher.
Usually it is the flamethrowers who can’t handle the innings increase workload. See the burnout Kerry Wood and Francisco Liriano experienced early in their careers.
While not crucial with a pitcher of Niese’s pedigree, the 2011 season should still be monitored wisely. The Mets should not increase Niese’s innings pitched this year by more than 20-30 percent.
That is the model most clubs follow today.
While, the thought of counting pitches and innings is something the old guard scoff at (think Nolan Ryan), it is commonplace for all organizations to take this “with kid gloves” approach.
The Mets have been diligent in their approach to limiting Niese’s innings and have done it gradually, and at age 23, Niese should shoulder the slight increase in innings this year.
Niese may never be an ace for the Mets, but he will make for an outstanding number two or three-type pitcher someday. What kind of step Niese makes this year could very well be the most important storyline in the Mets’ season.